Two transition pathways featuring 100% renewable energy were simulated for Europe.
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Flexible electricity generation, grid exchange and storage support the transition.
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Higher levels of grid interconnection result in 9% lower overall power system cost.
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Solar PV prosumers with battery storage reduce the need for interconnections by 6%.
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Policy and technological development should proceed in a SuperSmart manner.
Abstract
Two transition pathways towards a 100% renewable energy (RE) power sector by 2050 are simulated for Europe using the LUT Energy System Transition model. The first is a Regions scenario, whereby regions are modelled independently, and the second is an Area scenario, which has transmission interconnections between regions. Modelling is performed in hourly resolution for 5-year time intervals, from 2015 to 2050, and considers current capacities and ages of power plants, as well as projected increases in future electricity demands. Results of the optimisation suggest that the levelised cost of electricity could fall from the current 69 €/MWh to 56 €/MWh in the Regions scenario and 51 €/MWh in the Area scenario through the adoption of low cost, flexible RE generation and energy storage. Further savings can result from increasing transmission interconnections by a factor of approximately four. This suggests that there is merit in further development of a European Energy Union, one that provides clear governance at a European level, but allows for development that is appropriate for regional contexts. This is the essence of a SuperSmart approach. A 100% RE energy system for Europe is economically competitive, technologically feasible, and consistent with targets of the Paris Agreement.