Determining the likelihood of asset destruction during wildfires: Modelling house destruction with fire simulator outputs and local-scale landscape properties
Introduction
Wildfires are a common occurrence on all vegetated continents on earth (Krawchuk et al., 2009). When they occur in populated areas, they have the potential to impose substantial impacts to infrastructure, property and lives (Tedim et al., 2018). Extreme wildfires that impact populations are highly disruptive and recovery of human systems can be protracted and expensive (Chang-Richards et al., 2013, Ambrey et al., 2017). Recent examples include the 2016 Fort McMurray fire in Canada (Kochtubajda et al., 2017), the Carr fire in California in 2018 (Lareau et al., 2018) and the fires in Portugal in 2017 (Brown et al., 2018). Worldwide, there is evidence of increasing wildfire danger and severity (Jolly et al., 2015, Abatzoglou and Williams, 2016, Singleton et al., 2019); furthermore, projections of climate indicate that the occurrence of the weather conditions that promote such fires are expected to become more frequent (Hennessy et al., 2005, Bedia et al., 2014, Wotton et al., 2017).
Land management agencies in susceptible areas to invest in preparedness activities to prevent or mitigate fire impacts (Berry et al., 2006, Milne et al., 2014). The costs of preparedness can be substantial, as they can include investment in suppression resources, fire detection systems, fuel management, public education, training regulation and the development robust infrastructure (Martell, 1982). A commonly considered metric of fire impact is the number of houses destroyed (Wilson and Ferguson, 1986, Blanchi et al., 2010, Gibbons et al., 2012, Penman et al., 2015, Gibbons et al., 2018). Dwellings have high societal value and the number of houses destroyed during a wildfire has been shown to be positively correlated with the number of human lives lost (Blanchi et al., 2012) – another commonly used metric of fire impact. Houses are commonly used as refuges during fires (Blanchi et al., 2014), and incidents in which large numbers of houses areburnt have been shown to have complex and long term impacts on the community at large (Kumagai et al., 2004, Kulig et al., 2013, Ambrey et al., 2017). To be able prioritise how to best allocate preparedness resources to reduce the risk of fire to houses requires an understanding of the consequences of fire and an understanding how preparedness and suppression activities may alter these (Thompson et al., 2017).
Houses can be ignited by direct flame contact, radiant heat or embers – either individually or in combination (Barrow, 1945, Ramsay et al., 1987, Beverly et al., 2010, Caton et al., 2017). Factors that influence house exposure to ignitions and consequent potential for destruction have been found to operate at a range of spatial scales. For example, at small scales (10′s of meters) concentrations of flammable vegetation and other fuels have been shown to increase likelihood of a house being burnt during a fire as they can increase the direct exposure of assets to ignition sources and reduce the ‘defensible space’ that allows fire suppression (Wilson and Ferguson, 1986, Gibbons et al., 2012, Syphard et al., 2014, Gibbons et al., 2018, Penman et al., 2018). Similarly, where houses are located in close proximity to each other, the ignition of one house may affect the likelihood of others being destroyed (Blanchi and Leonard, 2005, Cohen and Stratton, 2008, Alexandre et al., 2016a, Alexandre et al., 2016b).
Most studies have focused on the local-scale influences on ignitions, however the interaction of these with larger scale aspects of fire behaviour will ultimately determine fire exposure (Cheney, 1976, Wilson and Ferguson, 1986). Areas burnt by head fires are exposed to higher intensity combustion and, as they are windward of the fire, more firebrands (Koo et al., 2010). Furthermore, large areas of fuel burning at high intensity can become ‘plume driven’, exhibiting atmospheric coupling (Sun et al., 2009, Morvan and Frangieh, 2018) which is thought to further increase building vulnerability due to pyrogenic winds (Cheney, 1976, McRae et al., 2013). Large scale landscape properties that influence fire behaviour have been utilised to estimate the likelihood of house loss, including the effects of slope, heavy fuels and fuel connectivity (Price and Bradstock, 2013, Alexandre et al., 2016b). However, as fire behaviour is undeniably a function of the weather during a fire incident, approaches that estimate house risk without considering local, landscape and weather effects may not be able accurately quantify potential risk. The risk of any particular house in the landscape will be a function of the proximal position of the house relative to fuel, topography and other houses, and the likely conditions and fire behaviour during any wildfires that occur. Furthermore, there is evidence that factors that contribute to house destruction are not necessarily additive and there may be interactions. For example, the effectiveness of suppression can be greatly enhanced when the level of fire exposure is reduced (Hakes et al., 2017).
One way the elements that define the likelihood of house loss at different scales can be combined is fire behaviour simulation. Fire simulation systems enable users to simulate the spread and nature of hypothetical fires through the representations of the landscape (Perry, 1998). They are parameterised with information relating to fuel, topography, ignition locations and potential weather, and use these to create predictions of potential fire behaviour (Miller and Ager, 2013). The results of ensembles of simulations can be aggregated to allow users to identify parts of the landscape that are likely to be most vulnerable to frequent or extreme fire behaviour (Finney et al., 2011, Ager et al., 2013, Haas et al., 2013, Duff et al., 2014, Castillo et al., 2017). By overlaying simulation outputs and assets, the fire exposure can be estimated (Ager and Vaillant, 2011, Driscoll et al., 2016). Such approaches have been adopted operationally; for example, in the state of Victoria, Australia, ensembles of fire simulations using PHOENIX RapidFire (PHOENIX, (Tolhurst et al., 2008)) are used to identify the parts of the landscape most at risk to fire and provide an objective evaluation of preparedness (Department of Environment and Primary Industries, 2013). In this approach, to compare between scenarios, risk is quantified by finding the total number of houses to be expected to be destroyed. Expected destruction is determined by overlaying simulated outputs of fire behaviour over maps of houses and predicting destruction based using a linear logistic regression of fire behaviour variables that had been created using observations of destruction in four fires (Tolhurst and Chong, 2011).
To-date, there have been no approaches developed that facilitate the prediction of asset destruction that consider likely fire behaviour, local-scale land influences and the interactions between factors. We aim to develop and test a process that can be integrated with existing fire simulation-based risk evaluation systems to enhance the representation of fire impacts. We will demonstrate this by linking observations of historic house destruction within wildfires in South Eastern Australia to local-scale landscape properties and fire behaviour reconstructed using the fire simulator that is operationally implementated in the study area. The resultant model has the potential to be applied to the simulator outputs for hypothetical fires, enhancing the ability of land managers to estimate the likely effects on risk of differing management strategies. This could also allow the primary factors contributing to house loss to be identified in the context of real landscapes, allowing risk reduction efforts to be targeted on a case-by-case basis.
Specifically, we aim to:
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Use historic fire events to train a tree-based machine learning model to predict the probability of house loss using outputs of the fire simulator PHOENIX and local scale landscape properties;
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Compare the new model with the existing regression-based house destruction model used with PHOENIX; and
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Evaluate the model outputs to assess the factors in the landscape that play the greatest role in determining house destruction from simulated fires
Section snippets
Study area
The study considers large wildfires that occurred in the state of Victoria, South Eastern Australia. The climate is predominantly Oceanic Marine west coast (Cfb) according to the Koppen climate classification as delineated by Chen and Chen (2013), although average summer temperatures are higher than is typical for the class. Summers are hot and dry, and wildfires are most frequent in the summer and autumn months (Murphy et al., 2013). Fires occur every year, however damaging fires are limited
Results
The final simplified model BRT model produced consisted of 2,400 trees and was found to explain 55.3% of the variation in the likelihood of house destruction. A 20-fold cross validation test using the final model structure (trained on 95% of the data and predicting to the remaining 5%) found that 30.1% of the variation (SD 0.08%) of the independent data was explained. When converted to binary outcomes and compared to the training data, the ACC of the BRT for predicting destruction was 90.5%,
Discussion
There have been numerous studies that have evaluated the risk of building destruction by fire, however approaches are typically either focused on likely fire conditions or the landscape features in the vicinity of the assets of interest. Our results indicate that to accurately estimate risk, the consideration of both properties is important. The contributions of the fire-derived (including convection, winds and embers) and landscape derived (including house density, fuel and road proximity)
Conclusion
To best understand the potential for house loss, we have found that it is important to recognise the combined effects of landscape properties in the proximity of assets and likely conditions during fires. The approach demonstrated here is a way that these effects can be incorporated into a system for predicting likely asset destruction in a manner that can be implemented in existing fire simulator-based risk evaluation frameworks. Robust asset destruction models implemented within such
Data availability
The fire progression data and house loss data were used under license with the Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning. All data will be archived on University servers.
Funding Source
This work was undertaken as part of the ‘integrated Forest Ecosystem Research (iFER)’ program funded by the Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP).
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgments
This work was undertaken as part of project integrated Forest Ecosystem Research (iFER) program funded by the Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning. We would like to thank the staff of the Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning for their contributions to this research, in particular Andy Ackland and Finley Roberts.
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