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Explaining Local Campaign Intensity: The Canadian General Election of 2008

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 November 2011

William Cross  and
Lisa Young
William Cross*
Affiliation:
Carleton University
Lisa Young*
Affiliation:
University of Calgary
*
William Cross, Department of Political Science, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, William_cross@carleton.ca
Lisa Young, Department of Political Science, University of Calgary, 2500 University Dr. NW, Calgary, AB T2N 1N4, Lisa.young@ucalgary.ca
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Abstract

Abstract. There is considerable evidence that local campaign activity is positively related both to a party's constituency level vote share and to voter participation rates. In this article we consider the degree of variance of local campaign intensity at the constituency level in the Liberal and New Democratic parties in the 2008 Canadian federal election and consider the variables that may explain this variance. Utilizing data collected through a post-election mail-back survey of candidates, we find significant variance in local campaign activity and identify six factors that influence it. These are an objective measure of the local candidate's chance for victory in the constituency, the candidate's subjective view of their chances, whether the candidate was challenged for the local nomination, how involved the candidate is in his/her local community, whether the candidate contested the prior election and whether party notables from outside the constituency campaigned in the riding.

Résumé. Les preuves sont considérables au fait que l'activité dans les campagnes locales correspond à la part des votes dans la circonscription électorale ainsi qu'à la participation électorale. Dans cet article nous considérons le degré de variance de l'intensité des campagnes locales des partis Libéral et Nouveau Démocratique durant l'élection fédérale Canadienne 2008 et examinons les données qui expliquent la variation. En utilisant les données recueillies par des questionnaires postélectoraux des candidats retournés par la poste, nous trouvons une variance significative dans l'activité des campagnes locales et nous identifions six facteurs qui l'influencent. Ils sont: une mesure objective des chances de victoire du candidat, l'impression subjective du candidat de ses chances de gagner, si le candidat était mis au défi dans la nomination locale, la participation du candidat dans sa communauté locale, si le candidat avait contesté l'élection précédente, et si les notables du parti en dehors de la circonscription faisaient campagne pour le candidat dans sa circonscription.

Type
Research Article
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 44 , Issue 3 , September 2011 , pp. 553 - 571
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association 2011

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