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A Macro Disequilibrium Model for Switzerland

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 August 2016

Peter Stalder
Peter Stalder*
Affiliation:
Center for the Research of Economic Activity, ETH, Zürich
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Summary

This paper presents a disequilibrium model for Switzerland, focusing on the production sector and the associated spillover effects. Firms' decisions on output supply, labor demand and investment are analysed on basis of a vintage approach, involving pressure of demand, profitability and relative prices as determinants. Macro relationships are derived by aggregating over micro markets on which regimes are allowed to differ. In the resulting nonlinear macro structure the response of output and employment to demand-side and supply-side factors varies through the cycle, depending on the regime-mix (measured by survey data). Inventories and unfilled orders act as buffer stocks, modifying the dynamic link between current demand and output.

Résumé

Résumé

Cet article présente un modèle de déséquilibre pour la Suisse, centré sur le bloc production et les effets de report associées. Les décisions des entreprises, concernant l'offre de produit, la demande de travail et les investissements, sont analysées dans le cadre d'un modèle à générations de capital, ayant les débouchés, la profitabilité et les prix relatifs comme variables. Les relations macro sont dérivées par agrégation de micro-marchés sous différents régimes. Dans cette structure macroéconomique ( non-linéaire), les réponses de la production et de l'emploi aux variations de demande et d'offre varient dans le cycle, en fonction du type de régime prévalant. Les stocks et les commandes insatisfaites jouent un effet de tampon modifiant la relation dynamique entre demande et production.

Keywords

212824212824
Type
Research Article
Information
Recherches Économiques de Louvain/ Louvain Economic Review , Volume 57 , Issue 2 , 1991 , pp. 125 - 158
Copyright
Copyright © Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de recherches économiques et sociales 1991 

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Footnotes

(*)

The econometric work leading to this article was done during a visit at Princeton University, where I benefited from discussions with R.E. Quandt, A.S. Blinder and H.S. Rosen. Earlier versions of the paper were presented in seminars at CORE and Université de Montreal, at the 2nd Conference on European Unemployment in Chelwood Gate, the 1989 Spring Meeting of the EEA and the 2nd Conference on Disequilibrium Econometrics in Paris. I am indebted to two anonymous referees and many other people for support and helpful comments. Special thanks go to J.H. Drèze, C. Gourieroux, S. Gregoir, P. Kooiman, J.-P. Lambert, H.R. Sneessens and J. Waelbroeck. A grant from Swiss National Science Foundation is gratefully acknowledged.

References

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