Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-5g6vh Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-26T07:52:21.836Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Automated outbreak detection: a quantitative retrospective analysis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 February 1999

L. STERN
Affiliation:
Department of Computer Science, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3078, Australia
D. LIGHTFOOT
Affiliation:
Microbiological Diagnostic Unit, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3078, Australia
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

An automated early warning system has been developed and used for detecting clusters of human infection with enteric pathogens. The method used requires no specific disease modelling, and has the potential for extension to other epidemiological applications. A compound smoothing technique is used to determine baseline ‘normal’ incidence of disease from past data, and a warning threshold for current data is produced by combining a statistically determined increment from the baseline with a fixed minimum threshold. A retrospective study of salmonella infections over 3 years has been conducted. Over this period, the automated system achieved >90% sensitivity, with a positive predictive value consistently >50%, demonstrating the effectiveness of the combination of statistical and heuristic methods for cluster detection. We suggest that quantitative measurements are of considerable utility in evaluating the performance of such systems.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© 1999 Cambridge University Press