Abstract
Large changes in the wintertime atmospheric circulation have occurred over the past two decades over the ocean basins of the Northern Hemisphere, and these changes have had a profound effect on regional distributions of surface temperature and precipitation. The changes over the North Pacific have been well documented and have contributed to increases in temperatures across Alaska and much of western North America and to decreases in sea surface temperatures over the central North Pacific. The variations over the North Atlantic are related to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Over the past 130 years, the NAO has exhibited considerable variability at quasi-biennial and quasi-decadal time scales, and the latter have become especially pronounced the second half of this century. Since 1980, the NAO has tended to remain in one extreme phase and has accounted for a substantial part of the observed wintertime surface warming over Europe and downstream over Eurasia and cooling in the northwest Atlantic. Anomalies in precipitation, including dry wintertime conditions over southern Europe and the Mediterranean and wetter-than-normal conditions over northern Europe and Scandinavia since 1980, are also linked to the behavior of the NAO. Changes in the monthly mean flow over the Atlantic are accompanied by a northward shift in the storm tracks and associated synoptic eddy activity, and these changes help to reinforce and maintain the anomalous mean circulation in the upper troposphere. It is important that studies of trends in local climate records, such as those from high elevation sites, recognize the presence of strong regional patterns of change associated with phenomena like the NAO.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alley, R. B., Meese, D. A., Shuman, C. A., Gow, A. J., Taylor, K. C., Grootes, P. M., White, J. W. C., Ram, M., Waddington, E. D., Mayewski, P. A., and Zielinski, G. A.: 1993, ‘Abrupt Increase in Greenland Snow Accumulation at the End of the Younger Dryas Event’, Nature 362, 527–529.
Barlow, L. K., White, J. W. C., Barry, R. G., Rogers, J. C., and Grootes, P. M.: 1993, ‘The North Atlantic Oscillation Signature in Deuterium and Deuterium Excess Signals in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 Ice Core, 1840–1970’, Geophys. Res. Lett. 20, 2901–2904.
Barnett, T. P.: 1985, ‘Variations in Near-Global Sea Level Pressure’, J. Atmos. Sci. 42, 478–501.
Barnston, A. G. and Livezey, R. E.: 1987, ‘Classification, Seasonality and Persistence of Low-Frequency Atmospheric Circulation Patterns’, Mon. Wea. Rev. 115, 1083–1126.
Barry, R. G.: 1990, ‘Changes in Mountain Climate and Glacio-Hydrological Responses’, Mountain Res. Develop. 10, 161–170.
Beniston, M. and Rebetez, M.: 1996, ‘Regional Behavior of Minimum Temperatures in Switzerland for the Period 1979–1993’, Theor. Appl. Climatol. 53, 231–243.
Beniston, M., Rebetez, M., Giorgi, F., and Marinucci, M. R.: 1994, ‘An Analysis of Regional Climate Change in Switzerland’, Theor. Appl. Climatol. 49, 135–159.
Bromwich, D. H., Robasky, F. M., Keen, R. A., Bolzan, J. F.: 1993, ‘Modeled Variations of Precipitation over the Greenland Ice Sheet’, J. Clim. 6, 1253–1268.
Cayan, D. R.: 1992, ‘Latent and Sensible Heat Flux Anomalies over the Northern Oceans: The Connection to Monthly Atmospheric Circulation’, J. Clim. 5, 354–369.
Cayan, D. R. and Peterson, D.H.: 1989, ‘The Influence of North Pacific Atmospheric Circulation on Streamflow in the West’, Amer. Geophys. Union, Geophys. Monogr. 55, 375–397.
Chen, T.-C., van Loon, H., Wu, K.-D., and Yen, M.-C.: 1992, ‘Changes in the Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific-North America Area since 1950’, J. Met. Soc. Japan 70, 1137–1146.
Christy, J. R. and McNider, R. T.: 1994, ‘Satellite Greenhouse Warming’, Nature 367, 325.
Dickson, R. R. and Namias, J.: 1976, ‘North American Influences on the Circulation and Climate of the North American Sector’, Mon. Wea. Rev. 104, 1255–1265.
Douglas, A. V., Cayan, D. R., and Namias, J.: 1982, ‘Large-Scale Changes in North Pacific and North American Weather Patterns in Recent Decades’, Mon. Wea. Rev. 112, 1851–1862.
Eischeid, J. K., Diaz, H. F., Bradley, R. S., and Jones, P. D.: 1991, A Comprehensive Precipitation Data Set for Global Land Areas, U.S. Dept. of Energy Report No. DOE/ER-69017T-H1, Washington, D.C., p. 81.
Fisher, D. A. and Koerner, R. M.: 1994: ‘Signal and Noise in Four Ice-Core Records from the Agassiz Ice Cape, Ellesmere Island, Canada: Details of the Last Millennium for Stalbe Isotopes, Melt, and Solid Conductivity’, Holocene 4, 113–120.
Gaffen, D. J., Barnett, T. P., and Elliott, W. P.: 1991, ‘Space and Time Scales of Global Tropospheric Moisture’, J. Clim. 4, 989–1008.
Graham, N. E., Barnett, T. P., Wilde, R., Ponater, M., and Schubert, S.: 1994, ‘On the Roles of Tropical and Midlatitude SSTs in Forcing Interannual to Interdecadal Variability in the Winter Northern Hemisphere Circulation’, J. Clim. 7, 1416–1441.
Graham, N. E.: 1995, ‘Simulation of Recent Global Temperature Trends’, Science 267, 666–671.
Gutzler, D. S.: 1996, ‘Low-Frequency Ocean-Atmosphere Variability Across the Tropical Western Pacific’, J. Atmos. Sci. 53, 2773–2785.
Haeberli, W. P., Müller, P., Alean, P., and Bösch, H.: 1989, ‘Glacier Changes Following the Little Ice Age: A Survey of the International Data Basis and Its Perspecstives’, in Oerlemans, J. (ed.), Glacier Fluctuations and Climatic Change, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp. 77–101.
Held, I. M., Lyons, S. W., and Nigam, S.: 1989, ‘Transients and the Extratropical Response to El Niño’, J. Atmos. Sci. 46, 163–174.
Hoerling, M. P. and Ting, M.-F.: 1994, ‘Organization of Extratropical Transients during El Niño’, J. Clim. 7, 745–766.
Hense, A., Krahe, P., and Flohn, H.: 1988, ‘Recent Fluctuations of Tropospheric Temperature and Water Vapour Content in the Tropics’, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 38, 215–227.
Hurrell, J. W.: 1995a, ‘Decadal Trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation Regional Temperatures and Precipitation’, Science 269, 676–679.
Hurrell, J. W.: 1995b, ‘Transient Eddy Forcing of the Rotational Flow During Northern Winter’, J. Atmos. Sci. 52, 2286–2301.
Hurrell, J. W.: 1996, ‘Influence of Variations in Extratropical Wintertime Teleconnections on Northern Hemisphere Temperature’, Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 665–668.
Hurrell, J. W. and Trenberth, K. E.: 1996, ‘Satellite versus Surface Estimates of Air Temperature since 1979’, J. Clim. 9, 2222–2232.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change): 1996, Houghton, J. T., Meira Filho, L. G., Callander, B. A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A., and Maskell, K. (eds.), Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, p. 572.
Jones, P. D.: 1994, ‘Recent Warming in Global Temperature Series’, Geophys. Res. Lett. 21, 1149–1152.
Jones, P. D. and Briffa, K. R.: 1992, ‘Global Surface Air Temperature Variations Over the Twentieth Century: Part 1 Spatial, Temporal and Seasonal Details’, Holocene 2, 174–188.
Kawamura, R.: 1994, ‘A Rotated EOF Analysis of Global Sea Surface Temperature Variability with Interannual and Interdecadal Scales’, J. Phys. Oceanogr. 24, 707–715.
Kitoh, A.: 1991, ‘Interannual Variations in an Atmospheric GCM Forced by the 1970–1989 SST. Part II: Low Frequency Variability of the Wintertime Northern Hemisphere Extratropics’, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan 69, 271–291.
Kumar, A., Leetmaa, A., and Ji, M.: 1994, ‘Simulations of Atmospheric Variability Induced by Sea Surface Temperatures and Implications for Global Warming’, Science 266, 632–634.
Latif, M. and Barnett, T. P.: 1994, ‘Causes of Decadal Climate Variability over the North Pacific and North America’, Science 266, 634–637.
Lau, N.-C. and Nath, M. J.: 1994, ‘A Modeling Study of the Relative Roles of Tropical and Extratropical SST Anomalies in the Variability of the Global Atmosphere-Ocean System’, J. Clim. 7, 1184–1207.
Manak, D. K. and Mysak, L. A.: 1987, ‘Climatic Atlas of Arctic Sea Ice Extent and Anomalies 1953–1984’, Climate Research Group Report 87-8.
Miller, A. J., Cayan, D. R., Barnett, T. P., Graham, N. E., and Oberhuber, J. M.: 1994, ‘Interdecadal Variability of the Pacific Ocean: Model Response to Observed Heat Flux and Wind Stress Anomalies’, Clim. Dyn. 9, 287–302.
Moses, T., Kiladis, G. N., Diaz, H. F., and Barry, R. G.: 1987, ‘Characteristics and Frequency Reversals in Mean Sea Level Pressure in the North Atlantic Sector and Their Relationships to Long-Term Temperature Trends’, J. Climatol. 7, 13–30.
Namias, J.: 1959, ‘Recent Seasonal Interactions Between North Pacific Waters and the Overlying Atmospheric Circulation’, J. Geophys. Res. 64, 631–646.
Namias, J.: 1963, ‘Large-Scale Air-Sea Interactions over the North Pacific from Summer 1962 Through the Subsequent Winter’, J. Geophys. Res. 68, 6171–6186.
Namias, J.: 1969. ‘Seasonal Interactions Between the North Pacific Ocean and the Atmosphere During the 1960s’, Mon. Wea. Rev. 97, 173–192.
Namias, J., Yuan, X., and Cayan, D.R.: 1988, ‘Persistence of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature and Atmospheric Flow Patterns’, J. Clim. 1, 682–703.
Nitta, T., and Yamada, S.: 1989, ‘Recent Warming of Tropical Sea Surface Temperature and Its Relationship to the Northern Hemisphere Circulation’, J. Met. Soc. Japan 67, 375–383.
Oerlemans, J.: 1994, ‘Quantifying Global Warming from the Retreat of Glaciers’, Science 264, 243–245.
Palecki, M. A. and Leathers, D. J.: 1993, ‘Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Circulation Anomalies and Recent January Land Surface Temperature Trends’, Geophys. Res. Lett. 20, 819–822.
Palmer, T. N.: 1993, ‘A Nonlinear Dynamical Perspective on Climate Change’, Weather 48, 314–326.
Parker, D. E. and Folland, C. K.: 1988, ‘The Nature of Climatic Variability’, Met. Mag. 117, 201–210.
Parker, D. E., Jones, P. D., Folland, C. K., and Bevan, A.: 1994, ‘Interdecadal Changes of Surface Temperatures Since the Late 19th Century’, J. Geophys. Res. 99, 14373–14399.
Rogers, J. C.: 1984, ‘The Association between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Southern Oscillation in the Northern Hemisphere’, Mon. Wea. Rev. 112, 1999–2015.
Rogers, J. C.: 1990, ‘Patterns of Low-Frequency Monthly Sea Level Pressure Variability (1899–1986) and Associated Wave Cyclone Frequencies’, J. Clim. 3, 1364–1379.
Rogers, J. C. and Mosley-Thompson, E.: 1995, ‘Atlantic Arctic Cyclones and the Mild Siberian Winters of the 1980s’, Geophys. Res. Lett. 22, 799–802.
Trenberth, K. E.: 1984, ‘Signal Versus Noise in the Southern Oscillation’, Mon. Wea. Rev. 112, 326–332.
Trenberth, K. E.: 1990, ‘Recent Observed Interdecadal Climate Changes in the Northern Hemisphere’, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 71, 988–993.
Trenberth, K. E.: 1991, ‘Storm Tracks in the Southern Hemisphere’, J. Atmos. Sci. 48, 2159–2178.
Trenberth, K. E.: 1993, ‘Northern Hemisphere Climate Change: Physical Processes and Observed Changes’, in Mooney, H. A., Fuentes, E. R., and Kronberg, B. I. (eds.), Earth System Responses to Global Change: Contrasts between North and South America, Chapter 3, Academic Press, pp. 35–59.
Trenberth, K. E. and Hoar, T. J.: 1996, ‘The 1990–1995 El Niño-Southern Oscillation Event: Longest on Record’, Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 57–60.
Trenberth, K. E. and Hurrell, J. W.: 1994, ‘Decadal Atmosphere-Ocean Variations in the Pacific’, Clim. Dyn. 9, 303–319.
van Loon, H.: 1979, ‘The Association Between Latitudinal Temperature Gradient and Eddy Transport. Part I: Transport of Sensible Heat in Winter’, Mon. Wea. Rev. 107, 525–534.
van Loon, H. and Rogers, J. C.: 1978, ‘The Seesaw in Winter Temperatures between Greenland and Northern Europe. Part I: General Description’, Mon. Wea. Rev. 106, 296–310.
van Loon, H. and Williams, J.: 1976, ‘The Connection between Trends of Mean Temperature and Circulation at the Surface: Part I. Winter’, Mon. Wea. Rev. 104, 365–380.
van Loon, H. and Williams, J.: 1980, ‘The Association between Latitudinal Temperature Gradient and Eddy Transport. Part II. Relationships between Sensible Heat Transport by Stationary Waves and Wind, Pressure and Temperature in Winter’, Mon. Wea. Rev. 108, 604–614.
Walker, G. T. and Bliss, E. W.: 1932, ‘World Weather V.’, Mem. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 4, 53–84.
Wallace, J. M. and Gutzler, D. S.: 1981, ‘Teleconnections in the Geopotential Height Field During the Northern Hemisphere Winter’, Mon. Wea. Rev. 109, 784–812.
Wallace, J. M., Zhang, Y., and Renwick, J. A.: 1995, ‘Dynamic Contribution to Hemispheric Mean Temperature Trends’, Science 270, 780–783.
Wallace, J. M., Zhang, Y., and Bajuk, L.: 1996, ‘Interpretation of Interdecadal Trends in Northern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperature’, J. Clim. 9, 249–259.
Walsh, J. E., Chapman, W. L., and Shy, T. L.: 1996, ‘Recent Decrease of Sea Level Pressure in the Central Arctic’, J. Clim. 9, 480–486.
World Glacier Monitoring Service: 1994, Glacier Mass Balance Bulletin No. 3, 1992–1993.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
HURRELL, J.W., VAN LOON, H. DECADAL VARIATIONS IN CLIMATE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. Climatic Change 36, 301–326 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005314315270
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005314315270