Abstract
Our current understanding of the ability of climate models to provide insight into the possible impacts of the enhanced greenhouse effect on the climatology of tropical cyclones and extreme rainfall events is reviewed. At present, because of the insufficient resolution of climate models and their generally crude representation of sub-gridscale and convective processes, little confidence can be placed in any definite predictions of such effects, although a tendency for more heavy rainfall events seems likely, and a modest increase in tropical cyclone intensities is possible. In the view of the authors, it would be unwise to exclude substantial local changes in the climatologies of these phenomena, especially at a regional (sub-continental) scale.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bengtsson, L. Botzet, M., and Esch, M.: 1995, 'Hurricane-type Vortices in a General Circulation Model', Tellus 47A , 175–196.
Bengtsson, L., Botzet M., and Esch, M.: 1996, 'Will Greenhouse Gas-Induced Warming over the Next 50 years Lead to Higher Frequency and Greater Intensity of Hurricanes?', Tellus 48A, 57–73.
Broccoli, A.J., and Manabe, S.: 1990, 'Can Existing Climate Models Be Used to Study Anthropogenic Changes in Tropical Cyclone Climate?', Geophys. Res. Letters 17, 1917–1920.
Broccoli, A.J., Manabe, S., Mitchell, J.F.B., and Bengtsson, L.: 1995, 'Comments on "Global Climate Change and Tropical Cyclones", Part II', Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 76, 2243–2245.
Cubasch, U., Waszkcwite, J., Hegerl, G., and Perlwitz, J,: 1995, 'Regional Climate Changes as Simulated in Time-Slice Experiments', Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Report No. 153.
DeMaria, M., and Kaplan, J.: 1994, 'SeaSurface Temperatures and the Maximum Intensity of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones', J. Clim. 7 , 1324–1334.
Emanuel, K.A.: 1988, 'The Maximum Intensity of Hurricanes', J. Atmos. Sci. 45, 1141–1155.
Emanuel, K.A.: 1991, "The Theory of Hurricanes', Annu. Rev. Fluid. Mech. 23, 179–196.
Emanuel, K.A.: 1995, 'Comments on "Global Climate Change and Tropical Cyclones", Part I', Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 76, 2241–2243.
England, M.H.: 1995, 'Using Chlorofluorocarbons to Assess Ocean Climate Models', Geophys. Res. Letters 22 ,3051–3054.
Evans, J.L., and Allan, R.J.: 1992, 'El Niño-Southern Oscillation Modification to the Structure of the Monsoon and Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Australasia Region', Int. J. Climatol. 12, 611–623.
Evans, J.L.: 1993, 'Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Intensity to Sea Surface Temperature', J. Clim. 6, 1133–1140.
Evans, J.L., Ryan, B.F., and McGregor, J.L,: 1994, 'A Numerical Exploration of the Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Intensity to Sea Surface Temperature', J. Clim. 7, 616–623.
Fairall, C.W., Kepert, J.D., and Holland, G.J.: 1994, 'The Effect of Sea Spray on Surface Energy Transports over the Ocean', The Atmosphere and Ocean System 2, 121–142.
Folland, C.K., Karl, T.R., and Vinnikov, K. Ya,: 1990, 'Observed Climate Variations and Change', in Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, edited by J.T. Houghton, G. J. Jenkins and J.J. Ephraums, Cambridge University Press, pp 195–238.
Fowler, A.M., and Hennessy, K.J.: 1995, 'Potential Impacts of Global Warming on the Frequency and Magnitude of Heavy Precipitation', Natural Hazards 11, 283–303.
Frank, W.M.: 1977, 'The Structure and Energetics of the Tropical Cyclone. I, Storm Structure', Mon. wea. rev. 105,1119–1135.
Gates, W.L., Mitchell, J.F.B., Boer, G.J., Cubasch, U., Meleshko, V.P.: 1992, 'Climate Modelling, Climate Prediction and Model Validation', in Climate Change 1992: The supplementary report to the IPCC scientific assessment, Cambridge University Press, pp. 97–134.
Gibson, T.T.: 1992, 'An Observed Poleward Shift of the Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Wind Maximum-A Greenhouse Symptom?', Int. J. Climatol. 12, 637–640.
Giorgi, F., Brodeur, C.S., and Bates, G.T.: 1994, 'Regional climate change scenarios over the United States produced with a nested regional climate model', J. Clim. 7, 375–399.
Gordon, H.B., Whetton, P,H., Pittock, A.B., Fowler, A.M., and Haylock, M.R.: 1992, 'Simulated Changes in Daily Rainfall Intensity Due to the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect: Implications for Extreme Rainfall Events', Clim. Dyn. 8, 83–102.
Gray, W.M.: 1968, 'Global View of the Origins of Tropical Disturbances and Storms', Mon. Wea. Rev. 96,669–700.
Gray, W.M.: 1975, Tropical Cyclone Genesis, Dept. of Atm. Sci. Paper No. 234, Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO.
Gray, W.M.: 1979, 'Hurricanes: their Formation, Structure and Likely Role in the Tropical Circulation', in Meteorology over the Tropical Oceans, James Glaisher House, pp. 155–218.
Gregory, J.M., and Mitchell, J.F.B.: 1995, 'Simulation of Daily Variability of Surface Temperature and Precipitation over Europe in the current and 2xCO2 Climates Using the UKMO climate model'. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 121, 1451–1476.
Haarsma, R.J., Mitchell, J.F.B, and Senior, C.A.: 1993, 'Tropical Disturbances in a GCM', Clim. Dyn. 8, 247–527.
Hasselmann, K., Bengtsson, L., Cubasch, U., Hegerl, G.C., Rodhe, H., Roeckner, E., von Storch, H., Voss, R., and Waszkewitz, J., 1995: 'Detection of Anthropogenic Climate Change Using a Fingerprint Method', Max-Planck-lnslitut für Meteorologie, Report No, 168.
Hall, N.M.J, Hoskins, B.J., Valdes, P.J., Senior, C.A.: 1994, 'Storm Tracks in a High-Resolution GCM with Doubled Carbon Dioxide', Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 120, 1209–1230.
Henderson-Sellers, A., Hoekstra, J., Kothavala, Z., Holbrook, N., Hansen, A.-M., Balachova, O., and McGuffie, K.: 1997, 'Assessing Simulations of Daily Variability by Global Climate Models for Present and Greenhouse Climates', Climatic Change (submitted).
Henderson-Sellers, A., and Zhang, H.: 1997, 'Tropical Cyclones and Global Climate Change', report from the WMO/CAS/TMRP Committee on Climate Change Assessment (Project TC-2), World Meteorological Organization, Geneva.
Hennessy, K.J., Gregory, J.M., and Mitchell, J.P.B.: 1997, 'Changes in Daily Precipitation under Enhanced Greenhouse Conditions', Clim. Dyn. (in press).
Holland, G.J.: 1997, "The Maximum Potential Intensity of Tropical Cyclones', J. Atmos. Sci. (in press).
Hubbert, G.D., Holland, G.J., Leslie, L.M., and Manton, M.J.; 1991, 'A real-time system for forecasting tropical cyclone storm surges', Wea. and Forecast. 6, 86–97.
Hulme, M., Briffa, K.R., Jones, P.D., and Senior, C.A.: 1993, 'Validation of GCM Control Simulations Using Indices of Different Airflow Types over the British Isles', Clim. Dyn. 9, 95–105.
Hulme, M. and Viner, D.: 1998, 'A Climate Change Scenario for the Tropics,’ Climatic Change, this volume
IPCC: 1990, Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, Houghton, J.T., Jenkins, G.J., and Ephraums, J.J. (eds.), Cambridge University Press, 364 pp.
IPCC: 1992, Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment,Houghton, J.T., Callander, B.A., and Varney, S.K. (eds.), Cambridge University Press, 200 pp.
IPCC: 1996, Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, Houghton, J.T., Meira Filho, L.G., Callander, B.A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A., and Maskell, K. (eds.), Cambridge University Press, 572 pp.
Knutson, T.R., and Manabe, S.: 1994, 'Impact of increased CO2 on simulated ENSO-like phenomena', Geophys. Res. Letters. 21, 2395–2298.
Knutson, T.R., Tuleya, R., and Kurihara, Y.: 1997, 'Exploring the Sensitivity of Hurricane Intensity to CO2-induced Global Warming using the GFDL Hurricane Prediction System', Proceedings of the 22nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 19-23 May 1997, Fort Collins (Colorado), American Meteorological Society, Boston, pp. 587–588.
Lighthill, J., Holland, G., Gray, W., Landsea, C., Craig, G., Evans, J., Kurihara, Y., and Guard, C.: 1994, 'Global climate change and tropical cyclones', Bull. Amer. Met. Soc. 75, 2147–2157.
McGregor, J.L., Gordon, H.B., Watterson, I.G., Dix, M.R., and Rotstayn, L.D.: 1993, The CSIRO 9-level Almospheric General Crculation Mdel, CSIRO Aust. Div. Atmos. Res. Technical Paper No. 26.
McInnes, K.L., Leslie, L.M., and McBride, J.L.: 1992, 'Numerical Simulation of Cut-off Lows on the Australian East Coast: Sensitivity to Sea-surface Temperature', Int. J. of Climatol. 12,783–795.
Mitchell, J.F.B., Manabe., S., Meleshko, V., and Tokioka, T.: 1990, 'Equilibrium Climate Change and its Implications for the Future', in Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, edited by J.T Houghton, G. J. Jenkins and J.J. Ephraums, Cambridge University Press, pp. 131–172.
Mitchell, J.F.B., Johns, T.C., Gregory, J.M., and Tett, S.F.B.: 1995, 'Climate Response to Increasing Levels of Greenhouse Gases and Sulphate Aerosols', Nature 376, 501–504.
Murphy, J.M.: 1995, 'Transient Response of the Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-atmosphere Model to Increasing Carbon Dioxide. Part I. Control Climate and Flux Correction', J. Clim. 8, 36–56.
Murphy, J.M., and Mitchell, J.F.B.: 1995, 'Transient Response of the Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-atmosphere Model to Increasing Carbon Dioxide. Part II. Spatial and Temporal Structure of Response', J. Clim. 8, 57–80.
Neelin, J.D., Latif, M., Allaart, M.A.F., Cane, M.A., Cubasch, U., Gates, W.L., Gent, P.R., Ghil, M., Gordon, C., Lau, N-C., Mechoso, C.R., Meehl, G.A., Oberhuber, J.M., Philander, S.G.H., Schopf, P.S., Sperber, K.R., Steri, A., Toltioka, T., Tribbia, J., and Zebiak, S.E.: 1992, 'Tropical Air-sea Interaction in General Circulation Models', Clim. Dyn. 7, 73–104.
Nicholls, N.: 1989, 'Global Warming, Tropical Cyclones and ENSO', in Proceedings of a Workshop on Responding to the Threat of Global Warming: Options for the Pacific and Asia,Argonne National Laboratory, Illinois, pp 2.19–2.36.
Philander, G.: 1990, El Niño, La Niña and the Southern Oscillation, Academic Press, 293 pp.
Pittock, A. B., Dix, M.R., Hennessy, K.J., Katzfey, J.J., McInnes, K.L., O'Farrell, S.P., Smith, I.N., Suppiah, R., Walsh, K.J., Whetton, P.H., Wilson, S.G., Jackett, D.R., and McDougall, T.J.: 1996, 'Progress towards Climate Change Scenarios for the Southwest Pacific', Weath and clim. 15 ,21–46.
Roeckner, E., Oberhuber, J.M., Bacher, A., Christoph, M., and Kirchner, I.: 1996, 'ENSO variability and atmospheric response in a global coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM', Clim. Dyn. 12,737–754.
Ryan, B.F., Jones, D.A., and Gordon, H.B.: 1992a, 'The Portrayal of the Australian Monsoon Equatorial Monsoon Shear Line by GCMs: Enhanced Greenhouse Scenario Implications', Clim. Dyn. 7, 173–180.
Ryan, B.F., Watterson, I.G., and Evans, J.L.: 1992b. Tropical Cyclone Frequencies Inferred from Gray's Yearly Genesis Parameter: Validation of GCM Tropical Climates', Geophys. Res. Letters 19,1831–1834.
Slingo, J., Blackburn, M., Betts, A., Brugge, R., Hodges, K., Hoskins, B., Miller, M., Steenman-Clark, L., and Thurburn, J.: 1994, 'Mean Climate and Transience in the Tropics of the UGAMP GCM: Sensitivity to Convective Parameterization'. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 120, 881–922.
Stephens, G.L.: 1990, 'On the Relationship between Water Vapor over the Oceans and Sea Surface Temperature', J. Clim. 3, 634–645.
Suppiah, R.: 1994, 'Synoptic Aspects of Wet and Dry Conditions in Central Australia: Observations and GCM simulations for 1xCO2 and 2xCO2 conditions', Clim. Dyn. 19,395–405.
Tett, S.F.B.: 1993, 'Simulation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation-like Variability in a Global AOGCM and its Response to CO2 Increase', J. Clim. 8, 1473–1502.
Tonkin, H., Landsea, C., Holland, G.J., and Li, S.: 1997, 'Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change: A Preliminary Assessment', in Assessing Climate Change: Results from the Model Evaluation Consortium for Climate Assessment, edited by W. Howe and A. Henderson-Sellers, Gordon and Breach, Sydney, pp. 327–360.
Walsh, K., and McGregor, J.L.: 1995, 'January and July Climate Simulations over the Australian Region Using a Limited Area Model', J. Clim. 8, 2387–2403.
Walsh, K., and Watterson, I.G.: 1997, 'Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in a Limited Area Model: Comparison with Observed Climatology', J. Clim. (in press).
Warrick, R.A., Le Provost, C., Meier, M.F., Oerlemans, J., and Woodworth, P.L.: 1996, 'Changes in Sea Level', in Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, edited by J.T. Houghton, L.G. Meira Filho, B.A. Callander, N. Harris, A. Kattenberg, and K. Maskell, Cambridge University Press, pp. 359–406.
Watterson, I.G., Evans, J.L., and Ryan, B.F.: 1995, 'Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Tropical Cyclogenesis: Diagnostics from Large-Scale Fields', J. Clim. 8, 3052–3066.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Walsh, K., Pittock, A. Potential Changes in Tropical Storms, Hurricanes, and Extreme Rainfall Events as a Result of Climate Change. Climatic Change 39, 199–213 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005387120972
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005387120972