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Trends in the incidence rate and risk factors for breast cancer in Japan

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Abstract

The incidence rate of breast cancer in Japanrose more than two-fold from 1959–60 to 1983–87.To assess to what extent this increase canbe explained by changes in the prevalence offour major risk factors of breast cancer (i.e.age at menarche, age at first birth, ageat menopause, and parity), we estimated the probabilityof developing breast cancer based on the jointdistribution and relative risks of these four riskfactors. The age-specific incidence rate during 1959–60 reportedby the Miyagi Prefectural Cancer Registry was usedto estimate the baseline hazard rate for womenwithout the four risk factors in the sameage group. Assuming that the baseline hazard rateis constant during all periods, we calculated theexpected incidence rates during the periods of 1959–60,1962–64, 1968–71, 1973–77, 1978–81, and 1983–87 for eachage group. Large discrepancies were noted between theobserved and expected incidence rates during 1983–87 inall age groups. The change in the jointdistribution of the four risk factors accounted forless than 40% of the increase observed from1959–60 to 1983–87, suggesting the effects of otherpowerful risk factors.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Public Health, Gifu University School of Medicine, 40 Tsukasa-machi, Gifu, 500, Japan

    Chisato Nagata, Norito Kawakami & Hiroyuki Shimizu

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  1. Chisato Nagata
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  2. Norito Kawakami
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  3. Hiroyuki Shimizu
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Nagata, C., Kawakami, N. & Shimizu, H. Trends in the incidence rate and risk factors for breast cancer in Japan. Breast Cancer Res Treat 44, 75–82 (1997). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005726110649

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