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Performance Risk Analysis for Fukuoka Water Supply System

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Abstract

In this study, simulation is used to evaluate the performance of the municipal water system in Fukuoka city. In combination with daily simulation model, a kind of risk model incorporating water demand prediction is presented. This model applies five risk indices: reliability, resiliency, vulnerability, drought risk index (DRI) and drought damage index (DDI). They aid in the identification of operation policies for the municipal water system, and the planning and operational policies obtained are aimed at achieving minimum risk for a given scenario of operation. In this paper, the performance risk of the municipal water system is investigated under three alternatives: (1) the existing system operation when available supply from the Chikugo river is decreased; (2) water restrictions for different percentages of reduction are implemented; and (3) available water supply increases when desalination of sea water is implemented. The results obtained show that savings of between 5 and 12% of water consumption from May 1, or increasing of daily desalination of sea water about 30 000 m3 or more, may efficiently decrease the performance risk of the Fukuoka water supply system. Potentials also exist for further increase of reservoir storage by more rational operation. The measure that more attention should be paid to increasing the water supply from stable sources is recommended as well.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Tsinghua University, P.R. China

    Xu Zongxue

  2. CTI Engineering Co. Ltd, Tokyo, 103, Japan

    Xu Zongxue & K. Ito

  3. Dept. of Civil Engineering, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, 812, Japan

    K. Jinno & A. Kawamura

  4. Nihon Suido Consultant Co. Ltd, Fukuoka, 812, Japan

    S. Takesaki

Authors
  1. Xu Zongxue
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  2. K. Jinno
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  3. A. Kawamura
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  4. S. Takesaki
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  5. K. Ito
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Zongxue, X., Jinno, K., Kawamura, A. et al. Performance Risk Analysis for Fukuoka Water Supply System. Water Resources Management 12, 13–30 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007951806144

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007951806144

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