Abstract
This paper draws ten lessons from analyses of adaptation to climate change under conditions of risk and uncertainty: (1) Socio-economic systems will likely respond most to extreme realizations of climate change. (2) Systems have been responding to variations in climate for centuries. (3) Future change will effect future citizens and their institutions. (4) Human systems can be the sources of surprise. (5) Perceptions of risk depend upon welfare valuations that depend upon expectations. (6) Adaptive decisions will be made in response to climate change and climate change policy. (7) Analysis of adaptive decisions should recognize the second-best context of those decisions. (8) Climate change offers opportunity as well as risk. (9) All plausible futures should be explored. (10) Multiple methodological approaches should be accommodated. These lessons support two pieces of advice for the Third Assessment Report: (1) Work toward consensus, but not at the expense of thorough examination and reporting of the "tails" of the distributions of the future. (2) Integrated assessment is only one unifying methodology; others that can better accommodate those tails should be encouraged and embraced.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Cropper, M.L. and Oates, W.A.: 1992, ‘Environmental Economics: A Survey’, Journal of Economic Literature 30, 675–740.
Graetz, D., Dowlatabadi, H., Risbey, J. and Kandlikar, M., 1997, ‘Applying a Framework for Assessing Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change in Australia’, Earth Observing Center, CSRIO Report #97/1.
Mendelsohn, R. and Neumann, J. (eds): 1998, The Economic Impact of Climate Change on the United States Economy. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Moser, S.C. and Cash, D.W., forthcoming, ‘Global Science for Local Action: The Case of Climate Change Assessments’, Global Environmental Change.
Pedersen, O.: 1983, ‘Galileo and the Council of Trent: The Galileo Affair Revisited’, Journal for the History of Astronomy 14, 1–29.
Schellnhuber, J. and Yohe, G.: 1998, ‘Comprehending the Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change by Integrated Assessment’, Conference on the World Climate Research Programme: Achievements, Benefits and Challenges, Geneva, Switzerland.
Schimmelpfennig, D. and Yohe, G.: 1998, ‘Vulnerability of Agricultural Crops to Climate Change: A Practical Method of Indexing Vulnerability’, in Global Environmental Change and Agriculture: Assessing the Impacts, Edward Elgar Publishing, New York.
Schlesinger, M. and Williams, L., forthcoming, ‘Country Specific Model for Intertemporal Climate’ Climatic Change
West, J.J. and Dowlatabadi, H.: in press, ‘On Assessing the Economic Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Developed Coasts’ in Downing, T.E., Olsthoorn, A.A. and Tol, R.S.J. (eds.) Climate, Change and Risk, Routledge, London.
Yohe, G.W., Neumann, J., Marshall, P. and Ameden, H.: 1996, ‘The Economics Costs of Sea Level Rise on US Coastal Properties’, Climatic Change, 32, 387–410.
Yohe, G.W. and Schlesinger, M.E.: 1998, ‘Sea Level Change: The Expected Economic Cost of Protection or Abandonment in the United States’, Climatic Change, 38, 337–72
Yohe, G.W., Jacobson, M. and Gapotchenko, T., forthcoming, ‘Spanning ‘Not-Implausible’ Futures to Assess Relative Vulnerability to Climate Change and Climate Variability’, Global Environmental Change.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Yohe, G., Dowlatabadi, H. Risk and Uncertainties, Analysis and Evaluation: Lessons for Adaptation and Integration. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 4, 319–329 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009619806936
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009619806936