Abstract
Current theories of plant invasion have been criticized for their limited heuristic and predictive value. We explore the heuristic and predictive potential of a model which explicitly simulates the mechanisms of plant invasion. The model, a spatially-explicit individual-based simulation, is applied to the invasion of pine trees (Pinus spp.; Pinaceae) in three vegetation types in the southern hemisphere. The model simulates factors which have been invoked as major determinants of invasive success: plant traits, environmental features and disturbance level. Results show that interactions between these determinants of invasive success are at least as important as the main effects. The complexity of invasions has promoted the belief that many factors must be invoked to explain invasions. This study shows that by incorporating interactions and mechanisms into our models we can potentially reduce the number of factors needed to predict plant invasions. The importance of interactions, however, means that predictions about invasions must be context-specific. The search for all-encompassing rules for invasions is therefore futile. The model presented here is of heuristic value since it improves our understanding of invasions, and of management value since it defines the data and models needed for predicting invasions.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Allen, L. J. S., Allen, E. J., Kunst, C. R. G. & Sosebee, R. E. 1991. A diffusion model for dispersal of Opuntia imbricata (Cholla) on rangeland. J. Ecol. 79: 1123–1135.
Bond, W. J. & Richardson, D. M. 1990. What can we learn from extinctions and invasions about the effects of climate change? S. Afr. J. Sci. 86: 429–433.
Bond, W. J. & van Wilgen, B. W. 1996. Fire and plants. Chapman and Hall, London.
Burke, M. J.W. & Grime, J. P. 1996. An experimental study of plant community invasibility. Ecology 77: 776–790.
Case, T. J. 1991. Invasion resistance, species build-up and community collapse in metapopulation models with interspecies competition. Biol. J. Linn. Soc. 42: 239–266.
Cowling, R. M., Richardson, D. M. & Mustart, P. J. 1997. Fynbos. Pp. 99–130. In: Cowling, R. M., Richardson, D. M. & Pierce, S. M. (eds) Vegetation of southern Africa, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Crawley, M. J. 1986. The population biology of invaders. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. London 314B: 711–731.
Crawley, M. J. 1987. What makes a community invasible? Pp. 429–453. In: Gray, A. J., Crawley, M. J. & Edwards, P. J. (eds) Colonization, succession and stability, Blackwell, Oxford.
Crawley, M. J., Harvey, P. H. & Purvis, A. 1996. Comparitive ecology of the native and alien floras of the British Isles. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. London B351: 1251–1259.
Cross, J. R. 1981. The establishment of Rhododendron ponticum in the Killarney oakwoods, S. W. Ireland. J. Ecol. 69: 807–824.
D'Antonio, C. M. and Vitousek, P. M. 1992. Biological invasions by exotic grasses, the grass/fire cycle, and global change. Ann. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 23: 63–87.
DeFarrari, C. M. & Naiman, R. J. 1994. A multi-scale assessment of the occurrence of exotic plants on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington. J. Veg. Sci. 5: 247–258.
Diamond, J. & Case, T. J. 1986. Overview: introductions, extinctions, exterminations and invasions. Pp. 66–79. In: Diamond, J. & Case, T. J. (eds) Community Ecology, Harper and Row, New York.
Drake, J. A., Mooney, H. A., Di Castri, F., Groves, R. H., Kruger, F. J., Rejmánek, M. & Williamson, M. 1989. Biological invasions: A global perspective. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester.
Elton, C. S. 1958. The ecology of biological invasions by animals and plants. Meuthuen, London.
Enright, N. J., Lamont, B. B. & Marsula, R. 1996. Canopy seed bank dynamics and optimum fire regime for the highly serotinous shrub, Banksia hookeriana. J. Ecol. 84: 9–17.
Fox, M. D. & Fox, B. D. 1986. The susceptibility of natural communities to invasion. Pp. 97–105. In: Groves, R. H. & Burdon, J. J. (eds). Ecology of biological invasions: An Australian perspective, Australian Academy of Science, Canberra.
Gilpin, M. 1990. Ecological prediction. Science 248: 88–89.
Greene, D. F. & Johnson, E. A. 1995. Long distance wind dispersal of tree seeds. Can. J. Bot. 73: 1036–1045.
Harper, J. L. 1977. Population biology of plants. Academic Press, London.
Higgins, S. I. & Richardson, D. M. 1996. A review of models of alien plant spread. Ecol. Model. 87: 249–265.
Higgins, S. I., Richardson, D. M. & Cowling, R. M. 1996. Modeling invasive plant spread: The role of plant-environment interactions and model structure. Ecology 77: 2043–2054.
Higgins, S. I., Turpie, J. K., Costanza, R., Cowling, R. M., Le Maitre, D. C., Marais, C. & Midgley, G. F. 1997. An ecological economic simulation model of mountain fynbos ecosystems: Dynamics, valuation and management. Ecol. Econ. 22: 155–169.
Hobbs, R. J. & Atkins, L. 1988. Effect of disturbance and nutrient addition on native and introduced annuals in plant communities in the Western Australian wheatbelt. Austr. J. Ecol. 13: 171–179.
Hobbs, R. J. & Huenneke, L. F. 1992. Disturbance, diversity, and invasion: Implications for conservation. Cons. Biol. 6: 324–337.
Hobbs, R. J. & Humphries, S. E. 1995. An integrated approach to the ecology and management of plant invasions. Cons. Biol. 9: 761–770.
Hobbs, R. J. & Mooney, H. A. 1991. Effects of rainfall variability on gopher disturbance on serpentine annual grassland dynamics in N. California. Ecology 72: 59–68.
Honig, M. A., Cowling, R. M. & Richardson, D. M. 1992. The invasion potential of Australian Banksias in South African fynbos: A comparison of the reproductive potential of Banksia ericifolia and Leucodendron laureolum. Aust. J. Ecol. 17: 305–314.
Huenneke, L. F., Hamburg, S. P., Koide, R., Mooney, H. A. & Vitousek, P.M. 1990. Effects of soil resources on plant invasion and community structure in Californian serpentine grassland. Ecology 71: 478–471.
Huston, M. & Smith, T. 1987. Plant succession: life history and competition. Amer. Nat. 130: 168–198.
Keeley, J. E. & Zedler, P.H. 1998. Evolution of life histories in Pinus. Pp. 219–251. In: Richardson (ed) Ecology and biogeography of Pinus. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Kelly, D. 1994. The evolutionary ecology of mast seedling. Trends Ecol. Evol. 9: 465–470.
Kenkel, N. C. 1988. Pattern of self-thinning in jack pine: testing the random mortality hypothesis. Ecology 69: 1017–1024.
Knops, J. M. H., Griffin, J. R & Royalty A. C. 1995. Introduced and native plants of the Hastings reservation, central coastal California: A comparison. Biol. Cons. 71: 115–123.
Lanner, R. M. 1998. Seed dispersal in Pinus. Pp. 281–295. In: Richardson, D. M. (ed). Ecology and biogeography of Pinus. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Le Maitre, D. C. 1998. Pines in cultivation: a global view. Pp. 407–431. In: Richardson, D. M. (ed). Ecology and biogeography of Pinus. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Levins, R. 1966. The strategy of model building in population biology. Amer. Sci. 54: 421–431.
Lodge, D. M. 1993a. Biological invasions: Lessons for ecology. Trends Ecol. Evol. 8: 133–137.
Lodge, D. M. 1993b. Species invasions and deletions: Community effects and responses to climate change and habitat change. Pp. 367–387. In: Kareiva, P. M., Kingsolver, J. G. and Huey, R. B. (eds) Biotic interactions and global climate change, Sinauer, Sunderland.
Mack, R. N. 1985. Invading plants: Their potential contribution to population biology. Pp. 127–142. In: White, J. (ed.), Studies in plant demography. A festschrift for John L. Harper, Academic Press, London.
Mack, R. N. 1995. Understanding the processes of weed invasions: the influence of environmental stochasticity. BCPC Symposium Proceedings: Weeds Changing World 64: 65–74.
Mack, R. N. 1996. Biotic barriers to plant naturalization. Pp. 39–46. In: Moran, V. C. & Hoffmann, J. H. (eds) Proceedings of the IX international symposium on biological control of weeds, University of Cape Town, Cape Town.
Maurer, B. A. 1994. Geographical population analysis: Tools for the analysis of biodiversity. Blackwell Scientific Publications, London.
Midgley, J. J., Cameron, M. C. & Bond, W. J. 1995. Gap characteristics and replacement patterns in the Knysna forest, South Africa. J. Veg. Sci. 6: 29–36.
Midgley, J. J., Cowling, R. M., Seydack, A. H. W. & van Wyk, G. F. 1997. Forests. Pp. 278–299. In: Cowling, R. M., Richardson, D. M. & Pierce, S. M. (eds) Vegetation of Southern Africa, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Mooney, H. A., Hamburg, S. P. & Drake, J. A. 1986. The invasions of plants and animals into California. Pp. 250–272. In: Mooney, H. A. & Drake, J. A. (eds). Ecology of biological invasions of North America and Hawaii, Springer-Verlag, New York.
Noble, I. R. & Slatyer, R. O. 1980. The use of vital attributes to predict successional changes in plant communities subject to recurrent disturbances. Vegetatio 43: 5–21.
O'Connor, T. G. & Bredenkamp, G. J. 1997. Grassland. Pp. 215–257. In: Cowling, R. M., Richardson, D. M. & Pierce, S. M. (eds). Vegetation of southern Africa, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Okubo, A. & Levin, S. A. 1989. A theoretical framework for data analysis of wind dispersal of seeds and pollen. Ecology 70: 329–339.
Pacala, S. W. and Silander, J. A. 1985. Neighbourhood models of plant population dynamics. I. Single species models of annuals. Am. Nat. 125: 385–411.
Peart, D. R. 1989. Species interactions in a successional grassland. II. Colonization of vegetated sites. J. Ecol. 77: 752–766.
Pimm, S. L. 1984. The complexity and stability of ecosystems. Nature 307: 321–326.
Planty-Tabacchi, A. M., Tabacchi, E., Naiman, R. J., Defarrari, C. & Decamps, H. 1996. Invasibility of species-rich communities in riparian zones. Cons. Biol. 10: 598–607.
Portnoy, S. & Willson, M. F. 1993. Seed dispersal curves: behaviour of the tail of the distribution. Evol. Ecol. 7: 25–44.
Pysek, P. & Pysek, A. 1995. Invasion by Heracleummantegazzianum in different habitats in the Czech Republic. J. Veg. Sci. 6: 711–718.
Rejmánek, M. 1996a. A theory of seed plant invasiveness: the first sketch. Biol. Cons. 78, 171–181.
Rejmánek, M. 1996b. Species richness and resistance to invasions. Pp. 153–172. In: Orians, G. H., Dirzo, R. & Cushman, J. H. (eds). Diversity and processes in tropical forest ecosystems, Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
Rejmánek, M. & Richardson, D. M. 1996. What attributes make some plants more invasive? Ecology 77: 1655–1661.
Richardson, D. M. 1988. Age structure and regeneration after fire in a self-sown Pinus halepensis forest on the Cape Peninsula, South Africa. S. Afr. J. Bot. 54: 140–144.
Richardson, D. M. & Bond, W. J. 1991. Determinants of plant distribution: Evidence from pine invasions. Am. Nat. 137: 639–668.
Richardson, D. M. & Cowling, R. M. 1994. The ecology of invasive pines (Pinus spp.) in the Jonkershoek valley, Stellenbosch, South Africa. Bontebok 9: 1–10.
Richardson, D. M. & Higgins, S. I. 1998. Pines as invaders in the southern hemisphere. Pp. 450–473. In: Richardson, D. M. (ed) Ecology and Biogeography of Pinus. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (in press).
Richardson, D. M., Cowling, R. M. & Le Maitre, D. C. 1990. Assessing the risk of success in Pinus and Banksia in South African mountain fynbos. J. Veg. Sci. 1: 629–642.
Richardson, D. M., Williams, P. A. & Hobbs, R. J. 1994. Pine invasions in the southern hemisphere: determinants of spread and invadability. J. Biogeog. 21: 511–527.
Robinson, G. R., Quinn, J. F. & Stanton, M. L. 1995. Invasibility of experimental habitat islands in a California winter annual grassland. Ecology 76: 786–794.
Roy, J. 1990. In search of the characteristics of plant invaders. Pp. 335–352. In: di Castri, F., Hansen, A. J. & Debussche, M. (eds). Biological invasions in Europe and the Mediterranean basin, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht.
Runkle, J. R. 1985. Disturbance regimes in temperate forests. Pp. 17–33. In: Pickett, S. T. A. & White, P. S. (eds) The ecology of natural disturbance and patch dynamics, Academic Press, Orlando.
Strang, R. M. 1974. Some man-made changes in successional trends on the Rhodesian Highveld. J. Appl. Ecol. 11: 249–263.
Teague, W. R. & Smit, G. N. 1992. Relationships between woody and herbaceous components and the effects of bushclearing in Southern African savannas. J. Grassl. Soc. S. Afr. 9: 60–71.
Thompson, K. 1994. Predicting the fate of temperate species in response to human disturbance and global change. Pp. 61–76. In: Boyle, T. J. B. & Boyle, C. E. B. (eds) Biodiversity, temperate ecosystems, and global change, Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
Thompson, K., Hodgson, J. G. & Rich, T. C. G. 1995. Native and alien invasive plants: more of the same? Ecography 18: 390–402.
Tilman, D. 1997. Community invasibility, recruitment limitation, and grassland biodiversity. Ecology 78: 81–92.
Turner, M. G. & Romme, W. H. 1994. Landscape dynamics in crown fire ecosystems. Landscape Ecol. 9: 59–77.
van Wilgen, B. W., Everson, C. S. & Trollope, W. S. W. 1990. Fire management in Southern Africa: Some examples of current objectives, practices, and problems. Pp. 179–215. In: Goldammer, J. G. (ed). Fire in the tropical biota, Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
vanWilgen, B.W. & Siegfried, W. R. 1986. Seed dispersal properties of three pine species as a determinant of invasive potential. S. Afr. J. Bot. 52: 546–548.
Vermeij, G. J. 1996. An agenda for invasion biology. Biol. Cons. 78: 3–9.
Whisenant, S. G. 1990. Changing fire frequencies on Idaho's Snake River plains: Ecological and management implications. Pp. 4–10. In: McArthur, E. D., Romney, E. M., Smith, S. D. & Tueller, P. T. (eds) Proceedings-symposium on cheatgrass invasion, shrub die-off, and other aspects of shrub biology and management, Intermountain Research Station, Forest Service, U.S. Dept. Agriculture, Ogden.
Williamson, M. 1996. Biological invasions. Chapman and Hall. London.
Willson, M. F. 1993. Dispersal mode, seed shadows, and colonization patterns. Vegetatio 107/108: 261–280.
Zedler, P. H., Gautier, C. R. & McMaster, G. S. 1983. Vegetation change in response to extreme events: the effect of a short interval between fires in california chaparral and coastal scrub. Ecology 64: 809–818.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Higgins, S.I., Richardson, D.M. Pine invasions in the southern hemisphere: modelling interactions between organism, environment and disturbance. Plant Ecology 135, 79–93 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009760512895
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009760512895