Abstract
Ten of the longest daily temperature series presently available in Europe and China are analysed, focusing on changes in extremes since pre-industrial times. We consider extremes in both a relative (with respect to the time of year) and an absolute sense. To distinguish changes in extremes from changes affecting the main part of the temperature distribution, a percentile smaller than 10 (and/or larger than 90) is recommended for defining an extreme. Three periods of changes in temperature extremes are identified: decreasing warm extremes before the late 19th century; decreasing cold extremes since then and increasing warm extremes since the 1960s. The early decreases and recent increases of warm extremes dominate in summer, while the decrease of cold extremes for winter persists throughout the whole period. There were more frequent combined (warm plus cold) extremes during the 18th century and the recent warming period since 1961 at most of the ten stations, especially for summer. Since 1961, the annual frequency of cold extremes has decreased by about 7% per century with warm extremes increasing by more than 10% per century but with large spatial variability. Compared with recent annual mean warming of about 2–3 ° C/century, the coldest winter temperatures have increased atthree times this rate, causing a reduced within-season range and therefore less variable winters. Changes in the warmest summer temperatures since 1961 exhibit large spatial variability, with rates of change ranging from slightly negative to 6 ° C/century. More extensive station observations since 1961 indicate that the single site results are representative of larger regions, implying also that the extremes studied are the result of large-scale changes. Recent circulation changes in daily gridded pressure data, used as an indicator of wind speed changes, support the results by explaining some of the trends.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Barriendos, M., Martín-Vide, J., Peña, J. V., and Rodríguez, R.: 2002, ‘Daily Meteorological Observations in Cadiz – San Fernando. Analysis of Documentary Sources and Instrumental Data Content (1786–1996)’ Clim. Change, this volume.
Bergström, H. and Moberg, A.: 2002, ‘Daily Air Temperature and Pressure Series for Uppsala 1722–1998’ Clim. Change, this volume.
Cocheo, C. and Camuffo, D.: 2002, ‘Corrections of Systematic Errors and Data Homogenization in the Daily Temperature Padova Series (1725–1998)’ Clim. Change, this volume.
Demarée, G. R., Lachaert, P.-J., Verhoeve, T., and Thoen, E.: 2002, ‘The Long-Term Daily Central Belgium Temperature (CBT) Series (1767–1998) and the Early Instrumental Meteorological Observations in Belgium’ Clim. Change, this volume.
Hulme, M.: 1992, ‘A 1951–1980 Global Land Precipitation Climatology for the Evaluation of GCMs’ Clim. Dyn. 7, 57–72.
Hulme, M. and Jones, P. D.: 1991, ‘Temperatures and Windiness over the U.K. during the Winters 1988/1989 and 1989/1990 Compared to Previous Years’ Weather 46, 126–135.
Hurrell, J. W.: 1995, ‘Decadal Trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation – Regional Temperatures and Precipitation’ Science 269, 676–679.
Jenkinson, A. F. and Collison, B. P.: 1977,’ An Initial Climatology of Gales over the North Sea’ Synoptic Climatology Branch Memorandum No. 62, U.K. Met Office, Bracknell, p. 18.
Jones, P. D.: 1987, ‘The Early 20th Century Arctic High – Fact or Fiction?’ Clim. Dyn. 1, 63–75.
Jones, P. D.: 1994, ‘Hemispheric Surface Air Temperature Variability – A Reanalysis and An Update to 1993’ J. Climate 7, 1794–1802.
Jones, P. D. and Hulme, M.: 1997, ‘The Changing Temperature of Central England’ in Hulme, M. and Barrow, E., (eds.) Climates of the British Isles: Present, Past and Future, Routledge, London, pp. 173–196.
Jones, P. D. and Lister, D. H.: 2002, ‘The Daily Temperature Record for St Petersburg (1743–1996)’ Clim. Change, this volume.
Jones, P. D., Horton, E. B., Folland, C. K., Hulme, M., Parker, D. E., and Basnett, T. A.: 1999, ‘The Use of Indices to Identify Changes in Climatic Extremes’ Clim. Change 42, 131–149.
Jones, P. D., Jónsson, T., and Wheeler, D.: 1997, ‘Extension to the North Atlantic Oscillation using Early Instrumental Pressure Observations from Gibraltar and South-West Iceland’ Int. J. Clim. 17, 1433–1450.
Kalkstein, L. S., Maunder, W. J., and Jendritzky, G.: 1996,’ Climate and Human Health’ Second Edition, WMO-Nr 843, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland.
Katz, R. W. and Brown, B. G.: 1992, ‘Extreme Events in a Changing Climate are more Important than Averages’ Clim. Change 21, 289–302.
Maugeri, M., Buffoni, L., Delmonte, B., and Fassina, A.: 2002, ‘Daily Milan Temperature and Pressure Series (1763–1998): Homogenising the Data using Direct Methodologies’ Clim. Change, this volume.
Moberg, A., Bergström., H., Ruiz Krigsman, J., and Svanered, O.: 2002, ‘Daily Air Temperature and Pressure Series for Stockholm (1756–1998)’ Clim. Change, this volume.
Moberg, A., Jones, P. D., Barriendos, M., Bergström, H., Camuffo, D., Cocheo, C., Davies, T. D., Demarée, G., Maugeri, M., Martín-Vide, J., Rodríguez, R., and Verhoeve, T.: 2000, ‘Day-to-Day Temperature Variability Trends in 160-to-275 Year Long European Instrumental Records’ J. Geophys. Res. 105, 22849–22868.
Parker, D. E., Legg, T. P., and Folland, C. K.: 1992, ‘A New Daily Central England Temperature Series 1772–1991’ Int. J. Clim. 12, 317–342.
Portman, D. A.: 1993, ‘Identifying and Correcting Urban Bias in Regional Time Series: Surface Temperature in China's Northern Plains’ J. Climate 6, 2298–2308.
Sneyers, R.: 1990,’ On the Statistical Analysis of Series of Observations’ WMO Technical Note No. 143, Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
Wagner, D.: 1999, ‘Assessment of the Probability of Extreme Weather Events and their Potential Effects in Large Conurbations’ Atmos. Environ. 33, Issue 24–25, 4151–4155.
Wang, S.: 1990, ‘Reconstruction of Northern China Temperatures since AD1380’ Science in China Series B, 553–560.
Wang, W., Zeng, Z., and Karl, T.: 1990, ‘Urban Heat Islands in China’ Geophys Res. Lett. 17, 2377–2380.
Yan, Z.: 1994, ‘Evolution of the Spectra of Historical Flood/Drought Fluctuations’ Chinese Science Bulletin 39, 664–669.
Yan, Z. and Yang, C.: 2000, ‘Extreme Climate Changes in China during 1950–1997’ Climate and Environmental Research 5 (3), 267–272 (in Chinese).
Yan, Z., Yang C., and Jones, P. D.: 2001a, ‘Influence of Inhomogeneity on the Estimation of Mean and Extreme Temperature Trends in Beijing and Shanghai’ Advances in Atmospheric Science 18, 309–322.
Yan, Z., Jones, P. D., Moberg, A., Bergström, H., Davies, T. D., and Yang C.: 2001b, ‘Recent Trends in Weather and Seasonal Cycles – A Wavelet Analysis of Daily Data in Europe and China’ J. Geophys. Res. 106, 5123–5138.
Zeng, Z. and Yan, Z.: 1993, ‘An Analysis of Cloudiness in China’ Chinese J. Atmos. Sci. 17, 688–696.
Zhang, D.: 1981, ‘An Preliminary Analysis of Winter Temperatures in Southern China during the Last 500 Years’ Collected Papers of National Assembly on Climate Changes, Science Press, Beijing, pp. 64–70.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Yan, Z., Jones, P.D., Davies, T.D. et al. Trends of Extreme Temperatures in Europe and China Based on Daily Observations. Climatic Change 53, 355–392 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1014939413284
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1014939413284