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Nonlinearities, Feedbacks and Critical Thresholds within the Earth's Climate System

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Abstract

The Earth's climate system is highly nonlinear: inputs and outputs are not proportional, change is often episodic and abrupt, rather than slow and gradual, and multiple equilibria are the norm. While this is widely accepted, there is a relatively poor understanding of the different types of nonlinearities, how they manifest under various conditions, and whether they reflect a climate system driven by astronomical forcings, by internal feedbacks, or by a combination of both. In this paper, after a brief tutorial on the basics of climate nonlinearity, we provide a number of illustrative examples and highlight key mechanisms that give rise to nonlinear behavior, address scale and methodological issues, suggest a robust alternative to prediction that is based on using integrated assessments within the framework of vulnerability studies and, lastly, recommend a number of research priorities and the establishment of education programs in Earth Systems Science. It is imperative that the Earth's climate system research community embraces this nonlinear paradigm if we are to move forward in the assessment of the human influence on climate.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Wave Propagation Laboratory, Department of Geological Sciences CB#3315, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599-3315, U.S.A.

    José A. Rial

  2. Atmospheric Science Dept., Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, U.S.A

    Roger A. Pielke Sr.

  3. Dept. of Geosciences, Geography, Univ. of Fribourg, Pérolles, Ch-1700, Fribourg, Switzerland

    Martin Beniston

  4. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg C4, 14473 Potsdam, P.O. Box 601203, Potsdam, Germany

    Martin Claussen & Hermann Held

  5. GCP-IPO, Earth Observation Centre, CSIRO, GPO Box 3023, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia

    Josep Canadell

  6. Met Office Hadley Centre, London Road, Bracknell, Berkshire, RG12 2SY, U.K

    Peter Cox

  7. DSM/LSCE, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Unité mixte de Recherche CEA-CNRS, Bat. 709 Orme des Merisiers, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

    Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré

  8. Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA, 02139-4307, U.S.A

    Ronald Prinn

  9. Department of Biology and Nicholas School of the Environmental and Earth Sciences, Phytotron Bldg., Science Dr., Duke University, Box 90340, Durham, NC, 27708, U.S.A

    James F. Reynolds

  10. Dept. of Civil Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, U.S.A

    José D. Salas

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  1. José A. Rial
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Rial, J.A., Pielke, R.A., Beniston, M. et al. Nonlinearities, Feedbacks and Critical Thresholds within the Earth's Climate System. Climatic Change 65, 11–38 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000037493.89489.3f

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