Abstract
Mean global temperatures have risen this century, and further warming is predicted to continue for the next 50–100 years1,2,3. Some migratory species can respond rapidly to yearly climate variation by altering the timing or destination of migration4, but most wildlife is sedentary and so is incapable of such a rapid response. For these species, responses to the warming trend should be slower, reflected in poleward shifts of the range. Such changes in distribution would occur at the level of the population, stemming not from changes in the pattern of individuals' movements, but from changes in the ratios of extinctions to colonizations at the northern and southern boundaries of the range. A northward range shift therefore occurs when there is net extinction at the southern boundary or net colonization at the northern boundary. However, previous evidence has been limited to a single species5 or to only a portion of the species' range6,7. Here we provide the first large-scale evidence of poleward shifts in entire species' ranges. In a sample of 35 non-migratory European butterflies, 63% have ranges that have shifted to the north by 35–240 km during this century, and only 3% have shifted to the south.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 51 print issues and online access
$199.00 per year
only $3.90 per issue
Buy this article
- Purchase on Springer Link
- Instant access to full article PDF
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Easterling, D. R. et al. Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe. Science 277, 364–367 (1997).
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 1995. Report of Working Group I (eds Houghton, J. T. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, (1996).
Beniston, M. et al. in The Regional Impacts of Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II(eds Watson, R. T., Zinyowera, M. C. & Moss, R. H.) 149–185 (Cambridge Univ. Press, (1998).
Root, T. L. in Elements of Change 1996(eds Hassol, S. J. & Katzenberger, J.) 203–206 (Aspen Global Change Institute, Aspen, Colorado, (1997).
Parmesan, C. Climate and species' range. Nature 382, 765–766 (1996).
Barry, J. P., Baxtern, C. H. K., Sagarin, R. D. & Gilman, S. E. Climate-related long-term faunal changes in a California rocky intertidal community. Science 267, 672–675 (1995).
Grabherr, G., Gottfried, M. & Pauli, H. Climate effects on mountain plants. Nature 369, 448 (1994).
Davis, A. J., Jenkinson, L. S., Lawton, J. H., Shorrocks, B. & Wood, S. Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming. Nature 391, 783–786 (1998).
Thomas, C. D. & Hanski, I. in Metapopulation Biology: Ecology, Genetics and Evolution(eds Hanski, I. & Gilpin, M. E.) 359–386 (Academic, London, (1997).
Thomas, C. D., Thomas, J. A. & Warren, M. S. Distributions of occupied and vacant butterfly habitats in fragmented landscapes. Oecologia 92, 563–567 (1992).
Baldock, D. Agriculture and habitat loss in Europe (CAP Discussion paper No 3, Gland, Switzerland, (1990).
Karl, T. R., Knight, R. W., Easterling, D. R. & Quayle, R. G. Indices of climate change for the United States. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 77, 279–292 (1996).
Dennis, R. L. H. Butterflies and Climate Change(Manchester Univ. Press, (1993).
Coope, G. R. in Extinction Rates(eds Lawton, J. & May, R.) 55–74 (Oxford Univ. Press, (1995).
Uvarov, B. P. Insects and climate. Trans. Entomol. Soc. Lond. 79, 174–186 (1931).
Ford, E. B. Butterflies(Collins, London, (1945).
Kaisila, J. Immigration und Expansion der Lepidopteren in Finnland in den Jahren 1869–1960(ACTA Entomologica Fennica, Helsinki, (1962).
Pollard, E. & Eversham, B. C. in Ecology and Conservation of Butterflies(ed. Pullin, A. S.) 23–36 (Chapman & Hall, London, (1995).
Ackery, P. R. Systematic and faunistic studies on butterflies.In Biology of Butterflies(eds Vane-Wright, R. I. & Ackery, P. R.) 9–21 (Academic, London, (1984).
Tolman, T. Butterflies of Britain and Europe(HarperCollins, London, (1997).
Acknowledgements
We thank the huge number of amateur lepidopterists throughout Europe who have collected most of the data. Data sets are from private collectors' records, regional lists and publications, the Swedish Museum of Natural History, the Lepidopterological Society of Sweden, the Natural History Museum, London (BMNH), the Museum of Zoology of Barcelona, Societat Catalana de Lepidopterologia and Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (Departament de Medi Ambient, Generalitat de Catalunya), Biological Records Centre (ITE, Monks Wood, UK), Butterfly Conservation (UK), Estonian Naturalists' Society, Lepidopterological Society of Finland, and Finnish Museum of Natural History. This project was facilitated by the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, P. R. Ackery, D. Blakeley and M. C. Singer. We thank A. N. Cohen, T. Lewinsohn, F. Micheli, W. Porter, J. Roughgarden, M. C. Singer, F.Wagner, R. I. Vane-Wright and M. Willig for comments on the manuscript.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Supplementary information
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Parmesan, C., Ryrholm, N., Stefanescu, C. et al. Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming. Nature 399, 579–583 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1038/21181
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/21181
This article is cited by
-
Modeling the potential global distribution of the Egyptian cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis under climate change
Scientific Reports (2023)
-
Century-long butterfly range expansions in northern Europe depend on climate, land use and species traits
Communications Biology (2023)
-
M3=Maths on Morphometry of Moths
Resonance (2023)
-
Unstructured citizen science reduces the perception of butterfly local extinctions: the interplay between species traits and user effort
Biodiversity and Conservation (2023)
-
Strain Identification and Herbivore–Host Interaction of Maize Hosting Invasive Alien Pest Spodoptera frugiperda under Elevated Temperature and CO2 Levels
Agricultural Research (2023)
Comments
By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.