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Assessing species vulnerability to climate change

Nature Climate Change volume 5, pages 215–224 (2015)Cite this article

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Abstract

The effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to assess species' vulnerability to climatic changes, both ongoing and projected in the coming decades. To minimize global biodiversity losses, conservationists need to identify those species that are likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this Review, we summarize different currencies used for assessing species' climate change vulnerability. We describe three main approaches used to derive these currencies (correlative, mechanistic and trait-based), and their associated data requirements, spatial and temporal scales of application and modelling methods. We identify strengths and weaknesses of the approaches and highlight the sources of uncertainty inherent in each method that limit projection reliability. Finally, we provide guidance for conservation practitioners in selecting the most appropriate approach(es) for their planning needs and highlight priority areas for further assessments.

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Figure 1: Taxonomic focus of vulnerability assessments in the analysed papers.
Figure 2: Ecoregional global concentrations of terrestrial and marine climate change vulnerable species.
Figure 3: Trends and biases in taxonomic groups assessed and approaches used by continent.

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Acknowledgements

This review was partially supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. (1136586).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Global Mammal Assessment program, Sapienza Università di Roma, Viale dell'Università 32, Rome, I-00185, Italy

    Michela Pacifici, Piero Visconti & Carlo Rondinini

  2. Climate Change Specialist Group, Species Survival Commission, IUCN, 28 rue Mauverney, Gland, CH-1196, Switzerland

    Michela Pacifici, Wendy B. Foden, James E. M. Watson, Stuart H.M. Butchart, Kit M. Kovacs, Brett R. Scheffers, David G. Hole, Tara G. Martin, H. Resit Akçakaya, Richard T. Corlett, Brian Huntley, David Bickford, Jamie A. Carr, Ary A. Hoffmann, Guy F. Midgley, Paul Pearce-Kelly, Richard G. Pearson, Stephen E. Williams, Bruce Young & Carlo Rondinini

  3. School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Wits, 2050, South Africa

    Wendy B. Foden

  4. Microsoft Research Computational Science Laboratory, 21 Station Road, Cambridge, CB1 FB, UK

    Piero Visconti

  5. School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, University of Queensland, Brisbane, 4072, Queensland, Australia

    James E. M. Watson

  6. Global Conservation Program, Wildlife Conservation Society, 2300 Southern Boulevard, Bronx, 10460, New York, USA

    James E. M. Watson

  7. BirdLife International, Wellbrook Court, Girton Road, Cambridge, CB3 0NA, UK

    Stuart H.M. Butchart

  8. Norwegian Polar Institute, FRAM Centre, Tromsø, 9296, Norway

    Kit M. Kovacs

  9. Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change, School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University of North Queensland, Townsville, 4811, Queensland, Australia

    Brett R. Scheffers & Stephen E. Williams

  10. Science & Knowledge Division, Conservation International, 2011 Crystal Drive, Suite 500, Arlington, 22202, Virginia, USA

    David G. Hole

  11. ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, NERP Environmental Decisions Hub, Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, University of Queensland, Brisbane, 4072, Queensland, Australia

    Tara G. Martin

  12. CSIRO Land and Water, Ecosciences Precinct, Dutton Park, Brisbane, 4102, Queensland, Australia

    Tara G. Martin

  13. Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, 11794, New York, USA

    H. Resit Akçakaya

  14. Center for Integrative Conservation, Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Gardens, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yunnan, 666303, China

    Richard T. Corlett

  15. School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK

    Brian Huntley & Stephen G. Willis

  16. Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, 14 Science Drive 4, 117543, Singapore

    David Bickford

  17. Climate Change Unit, IUCN Global Species Programme, 189 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, UK

    Jamie A. Carr

  18. Department of Genetics, Bio21 Institute, University of Melbourne, Victoria, 3010, Australia

    Ary A. Hoffmann

  19. Africa Department of Botany and Zoology, University of Stellenbosch, P/Bag X1, Matieland, 7602, Stellenbosch, South Africa

    Guy F. Midgley

  20. Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London, NW1 4RY, UK

    Paul Pearce-Kelly

  21. Department of Genetics, Centre for Biodiversity & Environment Research, Evolution & Environment, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK

    Richard G. Pearson

  22. NatureServe, 4600 N. Fairfax Drive, Arlington, 22203, Virginia, USA

    Bruce Young

Authors
  1. Michela Pacifici
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  2. Wendy B. Foden
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  10. H. Resit Akçakaya
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  11. Richard T. Corlett
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  14. Jamie A. Carr
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  16. Guy F. Midgley
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  17. Paul Pearce-Kelly
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  18. Richard G. Pearson
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  19. Stephen E. Williams
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  20. Stephen G. Willis
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  21. Bruce Young
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  22. Carlo Rondinini
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Contributions

M.P., P.V., C.R., J.E.M.W. and W.B.F. designed the framework for the review. All authors contributed to the writing, discussed the results and commented on the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Michela Pacifici.

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Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Pacifici, M., Foden, W., Visconti, P. et al. Assessing species vulnerability to climate change. Nature Clim Change 5, 215–224 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2448

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2448

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