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Towards an ecosystem model of infectious disease

Nature Ecology & Evolution volume 5, pages 907–918 (2021)Cite this article

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A Publisher Correction to this article was published on 26 May 2021

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Abstract

Increasingly intimate associations between human society and the natural environment are driving the emergence of novel pathogens, with devastating consequences for humans and animals alike. Prior to emergence, these pathogens exist within complex ecological systems that are characterized by trophic interactions between parasites, their hosts and the environment. Predicting how disturbance to these ecological systems places people and animals at risk from emerging pathogens—and the best ways to manage this—remains a significant challenge. Predictive systems ecology models are powerful tools for the reconstruction of ecosystem function but have yet to be considered for modelling infectious disease. Part of this stems from a mistaken tendency to forget about the role that pathogens play in structuring the abundance and interactions of the free-living species favoured by systems ecologists. Here, we explore how developing and applying these more complete systems ecology models at a landscape scale would greatly enhance our understanding of the reciprocal interactions between parasites, pathogens and the environment, placing zoonoses in an ecological context, while identifying key variables and simplifying assumptions that underly pathogen host switching and animal-to-human spillover risk. As well as transforming our understanding of disease ecology, this would also allow us to better direct resources in preparation for future pandemics.

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Fig. 1: Diagrammatic representation of a disease episystem, depicting interactions between pathogens, their hosts and the environment, and the interface for spillover into people.
Fig. 2: Iterative development of an ecosystem model for infectious disease.
Fig. 3: Schematic of a GEpM as applied to predict the hazard posed by negative-strand RNA viruses.
Fig. 4: Schematic of a GEpM for a coastal estuarine ecosystem.

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Acknowledgements

J.H., D.Z. and Y.-M.L. were supported by the US Army Medical Research and Development Command under contract no. W81XWH-21-C-0001 and the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Division, Global Emerging Infections Surveillance branch (AFHSC-GEIS) award P0031_21_WR. The views, opinions and/or findings contained in this report are those of the author(s) and should not be construed as an official Department of the Army position, policy or decision unless so designated by other documentation. T.N. is supported by two grants from the Leverhulme Trust (RPG-2015-073 and RPG-2018-069). L.H.V.F. is supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NE-J001570–1).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Global Health Program, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, Washington DC, USA

    James M. Hassell & Dawn Zimmerman

  2. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Disease, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA

    James M. Hassell & Dawn Zimmerman

  3. Centre for Biodiversity & Environment Research (CBER), Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK

    Tim Newbold & Lydia H. V. Franklinos

  4. Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA

    Andrew P. Dobson

  5. Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, USA

    Andrew P. Dobson

  6. Walter Reed Biosystematics Unit (WRBU), Smithsonian Institution Museum Support Center, Suitland, MD, USA

    Yvonne-Marie Linton

  7. Department of Entomology, Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, Washington DC, USA

    Yvonne-Marie Linton

  8. Walter Reed Army Institute of Research (WRAIR), Silver Spring, MD, USA

    Yvonne-Marie Linton

  9. Marine Disease Ecology Laboratory, Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, MD, USA

    Katrina M. Pagenkopp Lohan

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J.M.H. conceptualized the structure and content of the manuscript and wrote an initial draft. J.M.H., T.N., A.P.D., Y.-M.L., L.V.H.F., D.Z. and K.M.P.L. expanded upon the ideas contained within this initial draft, and engaged in discussion and editing of the final manuscript.

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Hassell, J.M., Newbold, T., Dobson, A.P. et al. Towards an ecosystem model of infectious disease. Nat Ecol Evol 5, 907–918 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-021-01454-8

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