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Emerging Options for Extending Working Lives: Results of a Delphi Study

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Abstract

There are a range of legal and policy reforms that may help to extend working lives. However, it remains unclear whether these reforms are important and practicable in the UK context. To develop these proposals for change further, this chapter presents the results of expert discussions conducted via the Delphi method. The Delphi method offers an effective means of achieving reliable consensus between different expert views and developing and analysing future policy scenarios. Using this method, a group of UK experts were asked to consider a range of scenarios that may help to extend working lives. These scenarios included:The experts were asked to evaluate whether these reforms would be desirable, important and practicable in the UK context. While most scenarios were regarded as impracticable under a deregulatory governmental agenda, the respondents regarded some changes as being important, desirable and practicable. Given this consensus, I argue that these reforms should be seriously considered and vigorously pursued.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Norman Dalkey and Olaf Helmer (1963) ‘An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts’, Management Science 9, 458.

  2. 2.

    John P van Gigch and Rudolf Hommes (1973) ‘A Study of How Correctional Counsellors and Psychologists Agree upon Pre-Sentence Recommendations’, Canadian J Criminology & Corrections 15, 93; Bogdan Dziurzynski (1996) ‘FDA Regulatory Review and Approval Processes: A Delphi Inquiry’, Food & Drug LJ 51, 143.

  3. 3.

    H Graham McDonald and Clifford P Kirsch (1978) ‘Use of the Delphi Method as a Means of Assessing Judicial Manpower Needs’, Just Sys J 3, 314; Sarah J Young and others (2004) ‘Best Case Scenario: The Development of a Teaching Tool for Sport Law’, J Legal Aspects Sport 14, 1.

  4. 4.

    Margaret F Hudson (1991) ‘Elder Mistreatment: A Taxonomy with Definitions by Delphi’ Journal of Elder Abuse & Neglect 3, 1.

  5. 5.

    Evgeny Guglyuvatyy (2010) ‘Identifying Criteria for Climate Change Policy Evaluation in Australia’, Macquarie J Bus L 7, 98.

  6. 6.

    Kevin N Wright (1982) ‘A Delphi Assessment of the Effects of a Declining Economy on Crime and the Criminal Justice System’, Fed Probation 46, 36; Lawrence F Travis and others (1985) ‘The Future of Sentencing and Parole: A Delphi Reassessment of Sentencing and Parole Reforms’, Crim Just Rev 10, 45; Sarah J Young and Lynn M Jamieson (1999) ‘Perceived Liability and Risk Management Trends Impacting Recreational Sports into the 21st Century’, J Legal Aspects Sport 9, 151.

  7. 7.

    Harold A Linstone and Murray Turoff (1977) ‘Introduction’ in Harold A Linstone and Murray Turoff (eds), The Delphi method: techniques and applications (Addison-Wesley) 3.

  8. 8.

    Georg Aichholzer (2009) ‘The Delphi Method: Eliciting Experts’ Knowledge in Technology Foresight’ in Alexander Bogner and others (eds), Interviewing experts (Research methods, Palgrave Macmillan) 252–53.

  9. 9.

    Mary Kay Rayens and Ellen J Hahn (2000) ‘Building Consensus Using the Policy Delphi Method’ Policy, politics, & nursing practice 1, 308, 308.

  10. 10.

    See Armando Rotondi and David Gustafson (1996) ‘Theoretical, Methodological and Practical Issues Arising out of the Delphi Method’ in Michael Adler and Erio Ziglio (eds), Gazing into the oracle: the Delphi method and its application to social policy and public health (Jessica Kingsley) 42.

  11. 11.

    Aichholzer (n 8) 252–53.

  12. 12.

    Erio Ziglio (1996) ‘The Delphi Method and Its Contribution to Decision-Making’ in Michael Adler and Erio Ziglio (eds), Gazing into the oracle: the Delphi method and its application to social policy and public health (Jessica Kingsley) 22.

  13. 13.

    Murray Turoff (1977) ‘The Policy Delphi’ in Harold A Linstone and Murray Turoff (eds), The Delphi method: techniques and applications (Addison-Wesley) 83.

  14. 14.

    Turoff (n 13).

  15. 15.

    Aichholzer (n 8) 259.

  16. 16.

    Rayens and Hahn (n 9) 309.

  17. 17.

    Wolf Rauch (1979) ‘The Decision Delphi’ Technological Forecasting and Social Change 15, 159, 163.

  18. 18.

    Rayens and Hahn (n 9) 309.

  19. 19.

    Rayens and Hahn (n 9) 309.

  20. 20.

    Murray Turoff and Starr Roxanne Hiltz (1996) ‘Computer-Based Delphi Processes’ in Michael Adler and Erio Ziglio (eds), Gazing into the oracle: the Delphi method and its application to social policy and public health, (Jessica Kingsley) 58; Aichholzer (n 8) 252.

  21. 21.

    Michael Meuser and Ulrike Nagel (2009) ‘The Expert Interview and Changes in Knowledge Production’ in Alexander Bogner and others (eds), Interviewing experts (Research methods, Palgrave Macmillan) 24.

  22. 22.

    Robert Stake (2008) ‘Qualitative Case Studies’ in Yvonna Lincoln and Norman Denzin (eds), Strategies of qualitative inquiry (3rd edn, SAGE) 130.

  23. 23.

    Kathleen M Eisenhardt (2002) ‘Building Theories from Case Study Research’ in A Michael Huberman and Matthew Miles (eds), The qualitative researcher’s companion (Sage Publications) 13; Juliet M Corbin and Anselm L Strauss (2008) Basics of Qualitative Research: Techniques and Procedures for Developing Grounded Theory (3rd edn, Sage Publications) 117.

  24. 24.

    Tim May (1993) Social Research: Issues, Methods and Process (Open University Press) 100; Lisa Webley (2010) ‘Qualitative Approaches to Empirical Legal Research’ in Peter Cane and Herbert M Kritzer (eds), The Oxford handbook of empirical legal research (Oxford University Press) 934.

  25. 25.

    See Alysia Blackham (2014) ‘Extending Working Life for Older Workers: An Empirical Legal Analysis of Age Discrimination Laws in the UK’ (University of Cambridge) ch 4.

  26. 26.

    Aichholzer (n 8) 262. These methods are reported elsewhere: see Blackham (n 25).

  27. 27.

    Rotondi and Gustafson (n 10) 43; Ziglio (n 12) 20.

  28. 28.

    Rayens and Hahn (n 9) 310.

  29. 29.

    Ziglio (n 12) 19; Aichholzer (n 8) 263.

  30. 30.

    Murray Turoff (1970) ‘The Design of a Policy Delphi’ Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2, 149, 157; Turoff (n 13) 85.

  31. 31.

    Aichholzer (n 8) 263.

  32. 32.

    Harold A Linstone and Murray Turoff (1977) ‘Evaluation—Introduction’ in Harold A Linstone and Murray Turoff (eds), The Delphi method: techniques and applications (Addison-Wesley) 234.

  33. 33.

    Aichholzer (n 8) 264.

  34. 34.

    Turoff (n 13) 93.

  35. 35.

    A fifth element, related to ‘goal’ items, will be reported elsewhere.

  36. 36.

    Turoff (n 30) 161.

  37. 37.

    Linstone and Turoff (n 37) 229.

  38. 38.

    Aichholzer (n 8) 267.

  39. 39.

    Aichholzer (n 8) 267.

  40. 40.

    Rayens and Hahn (n 9) 312.

  41. 41.

    The IQR is the difference between the upper and lower quartiles (that is, the range within which the middle 50% of responses fall). Rayens and Hahn (n 9) 312 describe this as the ‘inter-quartile deviation’ (IQD), which is calculated by halving the IQR. However, in the authors’ calculations, it is clear that they are using the IQR, not the IQD.

  42. 42.

    Rayens and Hahn (n 9).

  43. 43.

    Rayens and Hahn (n 9) 312.

  44. 44.

    Rayens and Hahn (n 9) 312.

  45. 45.

    Rayens and Hahn (n 9) 312–13.

  46. 46.

    Aichholzer (n 8) 267.

  47. 47.

    For further justification, see Blackham (n 25).

  48. 48.

    J Ilmarinen and K Tuomi (1992) ‘Work Ability of Aging Workers’ Scandinavian Journal of Work, Environment & Health 18, 8, 8.

  49. 49.

    J Ilmarinen (2001) ‘Aging Workers’, Occup Environ Med 58, 546, 548.

  50. 50.

    Ilmarinen and Tuomi (n 48) 8; see also J Ilmarinen and others (2005) ‘New Dimensions of Work Ability’, International Congress Series 1280, 3.

  51. 51.

    K Tuomi and others (2001) ‘Promotion of Work Ability, the Quality of Work and Retirement’ Occupational Medicine 51, 318, 318.

  52. 52.

    Ibid.

  53. 53.

    J Ilmarinen and J Rantanen (1999) ‘Promotion of Work Ability during Ageing’ American Journal of Industrial Medicine 36, 21, 23.

  54. 54.

    Tuomi and others (n 5) 322.

  55. 55.

    Ilmarinen and Tuomi (n 48) 9; K Tuomi and others (1977) ‘Summary of the Finnish Research Project (1981–1992) to Promote the Health and Work Ability of Aging Workers’, Scand J Work Environ Health 23, 66, 68; Ilmarinen and Rantanen (n 53) 21.

  56. 56.

    Tuomi and others (n 5) 318.

  57. 57.

    J Ilmarinen (2005) Towards a Longer Worklife!: Ageing and the Quality of Worklife in the European Union (Finnish Institute of Occupational Health) 120.

  58. 58.

    Ilmarinen and Rantanen (n 53) 22.

  59. 59.

    See Council of the European Union (2012) Council Declaration on the European Year for Active Ageing and Solidarity between Generations (2012): The Way Forward…

  60. 60.

    See, for example, Chris Ball (2007) ‘Defining Age Management: Information and Discussion Paper’; Chris Ball (March 2013) ‘Age Management at Work: Adopting a Strategic Approach’ (Employment Relations Comment); Emma Parry and Lynette Harris (December 2011), ‘The Employment Relations Challenges of an Ageing Workforce’ (Acas Future of Workplace Relations discussion paper series); CIPD (May 2011) ‘Managing Age: New Edition 2011’.

  61. 61.

    Ball ‘Defining Age Management: Information and Discussion Paper’ (n 60) 1.

  62. 62.

    Diane-Gabrielle Tremblay and Émilie Genin (2010) ‘Aging, Economic Insecurity, and Employment: Which Measures Would Encourage Older Workers to Stay Longer in the Labour Market?’ Studies in Social Justice 3, 173 & 181.

  63. 63.

    Andreas Cebulla and others (2007) ‘Working beyond the State Pension Age in the United Kingdom: The Role of Working Time Flexibility and the Effects on the Home’, Ageing & Society 27, 849 & 852.

  64. 64.

    Nathalie Burnay (2011) ‘Ageing at Work: Between Changing Social Policy Patterns and Reorganization of Working Times’, Population Review 50, 150 & 161.

  65. 65.

    Tony Maltby (2009) ‘The Employability of Older Workers: What Works?’ in Wendy Loretto and others (eds) The future for older workers: new perspectives (Policy Press) 170–71.

  66. 66.

    Employment Rights Act 1996 (UK) c 18 s 80F; Children and Families Act 2014 (UK) c 6 s 131.

  67. 67.

    See Age Action Alliance ‘Employer Toolkit: Guidance for Managers of Older Workers’ (no date) http://ageactionalliance.org/employer-toolkit/ accessed 1 July 2015.

  68. 68.

    See further Alan Walker (2002) ‘Ageing in Europe: Policies in Harmony or Discord?’ Int J Epidemiol 31, 758 & 760; Hedva Sarfati (2006) ‘Social Dialogue: A Potential “Highroad” to Policies Addressing Ageing in the EU Member States’, International Social Security Review 59, 49 & 53.

  69. 69.

    Bob Hepple and others (2000) Equality: A New Framework—Report of the Independent Review of the Enforcement of UK Anti-Discrimination Legislation (Hart) 59–65, 69–72; Linda Dickens (2006) ‘Equality and Work-Life Balance: What’s Happening at the Workplace’ Ind Law J 35, 445, 447; Linda Dickens (2007) ‘The Road is Long: Thirty Years of Equality Legislation in Britain’ British Journal of Industrial Relations 45, 463 & 474; Sandra Fredman and Sarah Spencer (June 2006) ‘Delivering Equality: Towards an Outcome-Focused Positive Duty—Submission to the Cabinet Office Equality Review and to the Discrimination Law Review’, 6–7.

  70. 70.

    Fredman and Spencer (n 69) 6–7; Sandra Fredman (2012) ‘Breaking the Mold: Equality as a Proactive Duty’, 60 Am J Comp L 265, 266.

  71. 71.

    Dickens, ‘The Road is Long’ (n 69) 472.

  72. 72.

    Bob Hepple (2011) ‘Enforcing Equality Law: Two Steps Forward and Two Steps Backwards for Reflexive Regulation’, Ind Law J 40, 315, 319.

  73. 73.

    Fredman (n 70) 271.

  74. 74.

    Anne CL Davies (2009) Perspectives on Labour Law (Law in context, 2nd edn, Cambridge University Press) 135.

  75. 75.

    Bob Hepple (2003) ‘Age Discrimination in Employment: Implementing the Framework Directive 2000/78/EC’ in Sandra Fredman and Sarah Spencer (eds), Age as an equality issue: legal and policy perspectives (Hart) 85.

  76. 76.

    Sandra Fredman (2002) Discrimination Law (Clarendon law series, Oxford University Press) 178.

  77. 77.

    Fredman and Spencer (n 69) 8; see also Dickens, ‘The Road is Long’ (n 69) 474.

  78. 78.

    Fredman (n 76) 176; Fredman (n 70) 271.

  79. 79.

    Hepple and others (n 69) 71.

  80. 80.

    Hepple and others (n 69) 71.

  81. 81.

    See DC Walsh and NP Gordon (1986) ‘Legal Approaches to Smoking Deterrence’, Annual Review of Public Health 7, 127.

  82. 82.

    Linda Dickens and Mark Hall (2006) ‘Fairness—up to a Point. Assessing the Impact of New Labour’s Employment Legislation’, Human Resource Management Journal 16, 338, 348.

  83. 83.

    Dickens and Hall (n 82).

  84. 84.

    Cabinet Office, ‘About Red Tape Challenge’ (Red Tape Challenge, no date) http://www.redtapechallenge.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/about/ accessed 7 March 2014.

  85. 85.

    BIS (October 2011) ‘Flexible, Effective, Fair: Promoting Economic Growth through a Strong and Efficient Labour Market’ 7.

  86. 86.

    BIS (October 2011) (n 85) 4.

  87. 87.

    Larry Elliott (19 May 2015) ‘Tories Vow to Slash “Burdensome” Red Tape for Business by £10bn’, The Guardian (London) http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/may/18/conservative-party-cut-red-tape-business-sajid-javid accessed 1 July 2015.

  88. 88.

    Age Action Alliance (n 67).

  89. 89.

    Employment Rights Act 1996 (UK) c 18 s. 80F; Children and Families Act 2014 (UK) c 6 s. 131.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Law, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK

    Alysia Blackham

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  1. Alysia Blackham
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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Oxford Brookes University, Oxford, United Kingdom

    Simonetta Manfredi

  2. Oxford Brookes University, Oxford, United Kingdom

    Lucy Vickers

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© 2016 The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s)

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Blackham, A. (2016). Emerging Options for Extending Working Lives: Results of a Delphi Study. In: Manfredi, S., Vickers, L. (eds) Challenges of Active Ageing. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-53251-0_8

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