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The impossible transition and the unstable new mix: Italy 1992–2012

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Comparative European Politics Aims and scope

Abstract

How can the long process of change in Italian democracy (1992–2012) be analysed and explained? Answering this question requires placing the phenomenon of macro-political change of a democracy within a theoretical framework that will give answers to other questions: How should a transition from one type of democracy to another be analysed; have there been other cases of such a transition; what happened in Italy that brought about a change from a democracy to another one? By developing a theoretical proposal and providing a set of empirical data, replies are suggested to those questions and an explanation is given.

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Notes

  1. The most relevant and developed of these attempts is Sartori (1994).

  2. Venezuela cannot be recalled here as the change of this country during these years with Chavez was rather one towards a hybrid regime, that is, an intermediate regime between a minimalist democratic one and an authoritarian one (see on this Morlino, 2011, Chapter 3).

  3. Gallagher's index (1991) measures the difference between the vote and the seats won by each party, and is calculated using a least squares method. Rose's index (1984), which measures the same difference, is calculated as the sum of differences between votes and seats shares for each party, multiplied by 0.5, where the product is then subtracted from 1 and the result multiplied by 100.

  4. For a more in depth empirical analysis of this aspect, see Morlino and Tarchi (1996) and Morlino (1998, Chapter 7).

  5. There is a large relevant literature on this topic, not always of a good scholar quality. Among others, see Della Porta and Vannucci (2007).

  6. This section on the Italian crisis goes back to the analysis developed by Morlino (1998) and reformulated more recently in Morlino and Tarchi (2006).

  7. These percentages are the combined share of the votes cast for the two main party coalition.

  8. See Note 2.

  9. PF, party fragmentation or better fractionalisation, is calculated using Rae's formula: PF=1−∑Sp2, where p is the share of the vote obtained by each party in the elections (Rae, 1971).

  10. These were AN (with 13.5 per cent of the vote in 1994, 15.7 per cent in 1996 and 12.0 per cent in 2001); FI (with 21.0 per cent in 1994, 20.6 per cent in 1996 and 29.5 per cent in 2001); LN (which obtained 8.4 per cent in 1994, 10.0 per cent in 1996 and 3.9 per cent in 2001); the Popolari and the Patto Segni (whose support amounted to 11.1 and 4.7 per cent in 1994); the Centro Cristiano Democratico (CCD) and Cristiani Democratici Uniti (CDU), which then formed the Unione dei Democratici Cristiani e Democratici di Centro (UDC) (with 3.2 per cent in 2001); and the Margherita (with 14.5 per cent in 2001).

  11. See especially those conducted by Diamanti director of LaPolis – Laboratorio di Studi Politici e Sociali at www.uniurb.it/lapolis/.

  12. For a complete analysis of the Italian case against the background of neo-corporatist theory, see also Baccaro (2002).

  13. A great deal has been written about the agreements in those years. See, for instance, Giugni (2003), Salvati (2000), Regalia and Regini (2004).

  14. It should also be noted that the Constitutional Court seemed to be putting itself forward as an effective guarantor of the decision further to pursue political and institutional decentralisation in 1999–2001 (cf. Simoncini, 2004).

  15. On the impact of Europeanisation as a driver of change in the Italian case, see also Fabbrini (2000).

  16. For a rapid but accurate analysis of the Italian case between 1992 and 2006, see also Guarnieri (2006) and Calise (2006).

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  1. Luiss – Libera Università Internazionale Guido Carli, Viale Pola 12, Roma, 00198, Italy

    Leonardo Morlino

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Morlino, L. The impossible transition and the unstable new mix: Italy 1992–2012. Comp Eur Polit 11, 337–359 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1057/cep.2012.41

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