How Electoral Reform Might Affect the Number of Political Parties in The Netherlands

Abstract

In this contribution, it is argued that introducing districts in a proportional system with a single nationwide district — thereby creating a mixed-member proportional system — will have an effect on the party system only if a chain of conditions all hold: first, small parties must view district campaigns as important in driving up their list votes; second, small parties must believe that viable district candidates, with a personal stake in the success of their campaigns, will be significantly more effective at generating list votes than hopeless candidates; and third, small parties must reckon that merger is superior in boosting list votes to alliance. The plausibility of these conditions is considered, but there is not much empirical evidence directly pertinent to assessing them.