Abstract
This paper presents logit and discriminant models of debt rescheduling. The models incorporated new short-term debt data and variables representing economic shocks. The 30-country database covered the period from 1975 to 1982 and contained the largest number of debt rescheduling observations of any previous database. Because of the new indicators and more recent data, the models captured the effects of the changes that have occurred in the world economy since the oil price shocks and the period of rapid debt accumulation by the developing countries. Compared to the earlier research models, the models have proven to be efficient in forecasting debt reschedulings.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
*John B. Morgan is the International Managing Consultant in the Washington office of Data Resources, Inc. He is responsible for economic projects, contract research and consulting efforts involving econometric and data applications for a number of agencies including the Department of State, Treasury, and Commerce, the IMF, and other international organizations. Previously, he was a Vice President and International Economist at Texas Commerce Bank, Houston. He received a Ph.D. from Rice University.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Morgan, J. A New Look at Debt Rescheduling Indicators and Models. J Int Bus Stud 17, 37–54 (1986). https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8490423
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8490423