Political Sources of Risk in the International Money Markets: Conceptual, Methodological, and Interpretive Refinements

Abstract

Recent pioneering studies of “political risk” in international money markets are likely to prompt further interest and empirical analysis. This article recommends that future work be attentive to certain fundamental conceptual, methodological, and substantive issues. In particular, it suggests: 1. that the pertinent risks need to be defined and measured more precisely; 2. that analytically useful variables derivable from models of politics should be included in attempts to develop explanatory/predictive models of variations in risk; and 3. that the analysis of political sources of risk has significant implications for an understanding of market efficiency.