Spatial and temporal analysis of crude oil theft in the Niger delta

Abstract

This research sought to investigate patterns and correlates of the under-researched crime of crude oil theft (COT) in the context of the Niger Delta. The aim was to examine the feasibility of opportunity-, deprivation- and market-value-based explanations for COT patterns. A total of 1039 incidents of COT recorded by the Nigerian Oil Producers’ Trade Section during 2012–2014 were analysed. The results indicate that even when controlling for clustering of the oil pipeline infrastructure, spatial clustering of COT was statistically significant indicating manipulation of vulnerable situational contexts. No significant correlation was found between COT and the local unemployment or poverty rate. Finally, there was a moderate, significant positive temporal association between the volume of crude oil stolen and the international market price. The findings provide evidence that COTs are likely perpetrated by rationally motivated offenders and suggest that situational crime-prevention and market-reduction approaches show promise in proactively curtailing criminal opportunities.

Appendices

Appendix 1: demographic details of LGAS studied

Serial	State	LGA name	Size (Sq Km)	Population	Poverty ratio (fraction of total population in poverty)	Unemployment ratio (fraction of total population unemployed)	Number of COT reports	Total length of pipelines/LGA(KM)
1	Ba elsa	Southern Ijaw	2674	379,412	0.439999262	0.213000643	415	126.93
2	Bayelsa	Ekeremor	1801	317,844	0.439998867	0.213000717	31	52.10
3	Bayelsa	Kolokuma/Opokuma	361	93,455	0.43999786	0.21300091	0	2.90
4	Bayelsa	Yenegoa	704	415,344	0.439999133	0.212999345	27	49.08
5	Bayelsa	Sagbama	943	220,319	0.439998366	0.213000241	9	17.90
6	Bayelsa	Brass	1409	217,085	0.439998157	0.212999516	103	49.77
7	Bayelsa	Ogbia	695	211,755	0.439999056	0.213000874	8	49.08
8	Bayelsa	Nembe	758	154,409	0.440000259	0.212999242	100	95.49
9	Delta	Ndokwa West	815	176,878	0.539999322	0.212999921	1	4.50
10	Delta	Sapele	450	205,468	0.540001363	0.213001538	0	21.45
11	Delta	Aniocha North	407	122,689	0.539999511	0.213001981	0	0.00
12	Delta	Oshimili South	267	176,888	0.540002714	0.212999186	0	0.00
13	Delta	Ward South West	1757	137,398	0.540000582	0.213001645	27	138.23
14	Delta	Aniocha South	870	167,471	0.53999797	0.212998071	0	0.00
15	Delta	Patani	217	74,454	0.539997851	0.213004002	3	0.00
16	Delta	Ward South	634	367,813	0.539999946	0.212999541	2	40.88
17	Delta	Ukwuani	409	140,341	0.539999002	0.213002615	0	0.00
18	Delta	Ndokwa East	1608	121,701	0.539995563	0.212997428	4	17.60
19	Delta	Ughelli South	784	250,700	0.54	0.212999601	3	32.53
20	Delta	Ughelli North	820	378,090	0.540001058	0.21299955	4	55.01
21	Delta	Udu	131	167,984	0.539997857	0.213002429	1	6.20
22	Delta	Ethiope East	380	236,911	0.540000253	0.212999818	1	4.70
23	Delta	Ethiope West	537	238,997	0.540001113	0.213000594	1	28.89
24	Delta	Okpe	445	151,381	0.540001718	0.212998989	0	37.61
25	Delta	Bomadi	129	101,413	0.539999803	0.213000306	0	10.40
26	Delta	Oshimili North	510	139,758	0.53999771	0.212996752	0	0.00
27	Delta	Burutu	1927	245,205	0.540001223	0.213001366	1	8.80
28	Delta	Ward North	1855	160,520	0.540001246	0.213001495	5	84.80
29	Delta	Uvwie	95	222,510	0.539998202	0.213001663	0	15.20
30	Delta	!sok° North	478	169,256	0.539998582	0.213002789	0	35.46
31	Delta	Ika North East	464	215,544	0.540001113	0.213000594	0	0.00
32	Delta	!sok° South	705	277,238	0.539998582	0.213002789	6	39.65
33	Delta	Ika South	435	196,964	0.540002234	0.212998314	0	0.00
34	Rivers	Ahoada East	342	196,096	0.469999388	0.212997715	4	42.07
35	Rivers	Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni	968	334,004	0.470000359	0.213000443	60	84.70
36	Rivers	Andoni	233	256,932	0.469999844	0.213001884	1	19.22
37	Rivers	Degema	1009	294,122	0.469998844	0.213000048	20	65.95
38	Rivers	Ogu/Bolo	89	88,757	0.470002366	0.212997285	0	0.00
39	Rivers	Ahoada West	403	293,232	0.469999864	0.212998581	31	52.89
40	Rivers	Oyigbo	248	147,765	0.470003045	0.213000372	10	43.02
41	Rivers	Omumma	170	118,357	0.469993325	0.212999654	5	1.48
42	Rivers	Aku ku Toru	1439	189,940	0.470001053	0.212998842	22	118.06
43	Rivers	Bonn	640	253,465	0.469998519	0.213003109	10	67.68
44	Rivers	Abua/Odual	704	332,961	0.469997988	0.213000922	2	68.43
45	Rivers	Etche	805	294,678	0.470001154	0.212998595	14	10.10
46	Rivers	Port Harcourt	109	634,960	0.469999685	0.212999244	0	1.81
47	Rivers	Obio/Akpor	260	545,111	0.469999688	0.213000655	7	54.86
48	Rivers	lkwe rre	656	222,748	0.470001975	0.212998545	7	35.85
49	Rivers	Gokana	126	275,665	0.470001632	0.213001288	25	22.23
50	Rivers	Tai	159	141,843	0.469998519	0.213003109	0	19.18
51	Rivers	Khana	560	345,357	0.539998202	0.213001663	4	17.26
52	Rivers	Okrika	222	262,074	0.470000839	0.213000908	1	15.10
53	Rivers	Asari Toru	113	259,129	0.469997569	0.212998159	2	9.40
54	Rivers	Eleme	138	224,239	0.469998528	0.213000415	3	23.40
55	Rivers	Opobo/Nkoro	130	180,190	0.469998335	0.212997392	0	10.54
56	Rivers	Emuohua	833	237,046	0.470001603	0.213000852	3	76.02

Appendix 2: rate of theft per 30 km of pipeline/by LGA

Serial	State	LGA name	Rate per 30 km/LGA
1	Bayelsa	Southern Ijaw	134.21
2	Bayelsa	Ekeremor	55.91
3	Bayelsa	Kolokuma/Opokuma	5.80
4	Bayelsa	Yenegoa	36.40
5	Bayelsa	Sagbama	14.51
6	Bayelsa	Brass	51.46
7	Bayelsa	Ogbia	12.27
8	Bayelsa	Nembe	162.44
9	Delta	Ndokwa West	0.51
10	Delta	Sapele	1.84
11	Delta	Aniocha North	0.00
12	Delta	Oshimili South	0.00
13	Delta	Warri South West	31.92
14	Delta	Aniocha South	0.00
15	Delta	Patani	0.00
16	Delta	Warri South	4.29
17	Delta	Ukwuani	0.00
18	Delta	Ndokwa East	2.53
19	Delta	Ughelli South	13.08
20	Delta	Ughelli North	6.36
21	Delta	Udu	2.26
22	Delta	Ethiope East	1.69
23	Delta	Ethiope West	3.26
24	Delta	Okpe	3.80
25	Delta	Bomadi	3.79
26	Delta	Oshimili North	0.00
27	Delta	Burutu	3.84
28	Delta	Warri North	28.75
29	Delta	Uvwie	1.01
30	Delta	Isoko North	3.67
31	Delta	Ika North East	0.00
32	Delta	Isoko South	18.80
33	Delta	Ika South	0.00
34	Rivers	Ahoada East	29.15
35	Rivers	Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni	40.23
36	Rivers	Andoni	4.21
37	Rivers	Degema	55.30
38	Rivers	Ogu/Bolo	0.00
39	Rivers	Ahoada West	36.18
40	Rivers	Oyigbo	17.77
41	Rivers	Omumma	1.20
42	Rivers	Akuku Toru	72.90
43	Rivers	Bonny	44.56
44	Rivers	Abua/Odual	12.94
45	Rivers	Etche	1.26
46	Rivers	Port Harcourt	0.49
47	Rivers	Obio/Akpor	20.04
48	Rivers	Ikwerre	13.47
49	Rivers	Gokana	1.18
50	Rivers	Tai	10.46
51	Rivers	Khana	2.93
52	Rivers	Okrika	4.63
53	Rivers	Asari Toru	2.57
54	Rivers	Eleme	16.62
55	Rivers	Opobo/Nkoro	2.12
56	Rivers	Emuohua	4.10

1. Italics indicate LGAs with a rate of theft of over 50 per 30 km of pipeline