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A six-step model of potential victims' decisions to change location

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Abstract

This paper presents a model of how concern about personal security (a shorthand term designed to include assessments of both fear of crime and perception of risk) influences potential victims' decisions to change location. The model examines the decision-making process from the perspective of the potential victim and provides a framework for understanding how the large amount of research on fear of crime and related topics fits together. Movement decisions are particularly appropriate given the opportunities for crime provided by the presence of possible victims in locations in which potential offenders are present. The model is designed to be used by policy makers – particularly problem-solvers, planners and security professionals who may be approaching issues related to fear of crime for the first time. Researchers may also be interested in the model's focus on looking at the situational cues of locations and the responses that potential victims may use.

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Notes

  1. The specific impetus for developing this model came from the paper by Rosemary Barbaret and Bonnie Fisher (2009) on the relationship between high fear of crime and awareness of particular types of situational crime prevention measures in a sample of students from universities in one part of the United Kingdom.

  2. The term ‘potential victim’ is used at the beginning of the paper to help focus the discussion. It is meant to include anyone who might be a victim, in other words all people in the situation, including potential offenders, as well as others who may be present and carrying out other roles, such as place managers or guardians. Later, terms such as ‘person,’ ‘actor’ and ‘people’ will be used as well to stress that potential offenders and potential victims are not distinct groups.

  3. ‘Problem-solvers’ is used here to refer to those who seek to limit crime using a problem-oriented policing approach and focusing primarily on situational crime prevention techniques (see use in Scott et al, 2008).

  4. Other terms were considered for use here, such as ‘crime tension’ employed by Eck and colleagues in their crime-simulation models (Eck, 2009, personal communication). CPS was chosen because ‘concern’ connotes an emotional reaction that involves a cognitive element. ‘Tension’ has a more neutral connotation in terms of both emotion and cognition. On the other hand, ‘fear’ was not used because it has a much stronger connotation of emotion and implies limited cognitive involvement. This description of fear is not meant, however, to imply that it is irrational.

  5. Concern about personal safety involves these features as well, but the focus of the assessments is different.

  6. Sidebottom and Tilley (2008) looked at fear of crime from an evolutionary perspective and argued that it can be seen as an adaptive response to uncertain conditions. They also argued that gender differences in the level of fear displayed can be seen as evolutionarily adaptive responses, but this assertion is beyond the scope of the present discussion.

  7. Entering a setting is not included as a movement option because the potential victim is already in a setting or location. The decision involves movement. While just two movement options could have been used, the addition of a third choice highlights the complexity of the decision-making process, even in terms of this ‘simple’ outcome.

  8. This last group of concepts is included here for completeness and does not, at this stage of the development of the model, have any implications for the analysis of the decision-making process.

  9. Research carried out with taxi drivers in Cardiff, Wales, however, has shown that they do use elaborated scripts when describing the potential crimes they look out for and the routine precautions they use (Smith, 2004b).

  10. Again, this category of ‘other’ is included for completeness. It may include props and crime facilitators important for a particular crime script (see Cornish, 1994).

  11. Concepts derived from opportunity theory may be useful for teasing out what potential victims see as related to target suitability. For example, some may use: effort, risk, reward, provocation or excuses (see Cornish and Clarke, 2003). Others may use concepts set out in acronyms, such as CRAVED - Concealable, Removable, Available, Valuable, Enjoyable and Disposable – (Clarke, 1999), which was developed to help explain the ‘choice-structuring properties’ (Cornish and Clarke, 1987) of items worth stealing. This last may be particularly helpful when the potential crime event may be some type of theft.

  12. In this model, social disorder is considered a type of crime in progress and may be seen in terms of its linkage to other crimes, or as part of an escalating crime script, and, as such, falls within the discussion of motivated offenders.

  13. Stanko (1990) has also discussed the role of routine precautions in preventing what she terms ‘normal violence.’

  14. In that table, techniques are classified using the 25-techniques table set out in Cornish and Clarke (2003). The original table is available from the author.

  15. It may be that evaluators of SCP measures may be more likely to identify CPS as a potentially affected outcome of a SCP initiative now that they have a model that uses the language of opportunity theory.

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Acknowledgements

I would like to thank Rosemary Barbaret and Bonnie Fisher for sparking my interest in fear-of-crime paradoxes. I would also like to thank Sharon Fecher for her assistance and John Eck for providing many useful insights.

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  1. School of Community Affairs, Wichita State University, 1845 N. Fairmount St., Box 135, Wichita, 67260-0135, Kansas, USA

    Martha J Smith

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Correspondence to Martha J Smith.

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Smith, M. A six-step model of potential victims' decisions to change location. Secur J 22, 230–249 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1057/sj.2009.6

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