Efficient propagation of systematic uncertainties from calibration to analysis with the SnowStorm method in IceCube

M.G. Aartsen; M. Ackermann; J. Adams; J.A. Aguilar; M. Ahlers; C. Alispach; B. Al Atoum; K. Andeen; T. Anderson; I. Ansseau; G. Anton; C. Argüelles; J. Auffenberg; S. Axani; P. Backes; H. Bagherpour; X. Bai; A. Balagopal V.; A. Barbano; S.W. Barwick; B. Bastian; V. Baum; S. Baur; R. Bay; J.J. Beatty; K.-H. Becker; J. Becker Tjus; S. BenZvi; D. Berley; E. Bernardini; D.Z. Besson; G. Binder; D. Bindig; E. Blaufuss; S. Blot; C. Bohm; M. Börner; S. Böser; O. Botner; J. Böttcher; E. Bourbeau; J. Bourbeau; F. Bradascio; J. Braun; S. Bron; J. Brostean-Kaiser; A. Burgman; J. Buscher; R.S. Busse; T. Carver; C. Chen; E. Cheung; D. Chirkin; S. Choi; K. Clark; L. Classen; A. Coleman; G.H. Collin; J.M. Conrad; P. Coppin; P. Correa; D.F. Cowen; R. Cross; P. Dave; C. De Clercq; J.J. DeLaunay; H. Dembinski; K. Deoskar; S. De Ridder; P. Desiati; K.D. de Vries; G. de Wasseige; M. de With; T. DeYoung; A. Diaz; J.C. Díaz-Vélez; H. Dujmovic; M. Dunkman; E. Dvorak; B. Eberhardt; T. Ehrhardt; P. Eller; R. Engel; P.A. Evenson; S. Fahey; A.R. Fazely; J. Felde; K. Filimonov; C. Finley; A. Franckowiak; E. Friedman; A. Fritz; T.K. Gaisser; J. Gallagher; E. Ganster; S. Garrappa; L. Gerhardt; K. Ghorbani; T. Glauch; T. Glüsenkamp; A. Goldschmidt; J.G. Gonzalez; D. Grant; Z. Griffith; S. Griswold; M. Günder; M. Gündüz; C. Haack; A. Hallgren; L. Halve; F. Halzen; K. Hanson; A. Haungs; D. Hebecker; D. Heereman; P. Heix; K. Helbing; R. Hellauer; F. Henningsen; S. Hickford; J. Hignight; G.C. Hill; K.D. Hoffman; R. Hoffmann; T. Hoinka; B. Hokanson-Fasig; K. Hoshina; F. Huang; M. Huber; T. Huber; K. Hultqvist; M. Hünnefeld; R. Hussain; S. In; N. Iovine; A. Ishihara; G.S. Japaridze; M. Jeong; K. Jero; B.J. P. Jones; F. Jonske; R. Joppe; D. Kang; W. Kang; A. Kappes; D. Kappesser; T. Karg; M. Karl; A. Karle; U. Katz; M. Kauer; J.L. Kelley; A. Kheirandish; J. Kim; T. Kintscher; J. Kiryluk; T. Kittler; S.R. Klein; R. Koirala; H. Kolanoski; L. Köpke; C. Kopper; S. Kopper; D.J. Koskinen; M. Kowalski; K. Krings; G. Krückl; N. Kulacz; N. Kurahashi; A. Kyriacou; M. Labare; J.L. Lanfranchi; M.J. Larson; F. Lauber; J.P. Lazar; K. Leonard; A. Leszczyńska; M. Leuermann; Q.R. Liu; E. Lohfink; C.J. Lozano Mariscal; L. Lu; F. Lucarelli; J. Lünemann; W. Luszczak; Y. Lyu; W.Y. Ma; J. Madsen; G. Maggi; K.B. M. Mahn; Y. Makino; P. Mallik; K. Mallot; S. Mancina; I.C. Mariş; R. Maruyama; K. Mase; R. Maunu; F. McNally; K. Meagher; M. Medici; A. Medina; M. Meier; S. Meighen-Berger; T. Menne; G. Merino; T. Meures; J. Micallef; D. Mockler; G. Momenté; T. Montaruli; R.W. Moore; R. Morse; M. Moulai; P. Muth; R. Nagai; U. Naumann; G. Neer; H. Niederhausen; S.C. Nowicki; D.R. Nygren; A. Obertacke Pollmann; M. Oehler; A. Olivas; A. O'Murchadha; E. O'Sullivan; T. Palczewski; H. Pandya; D.V. Pankova; N. Park; P. Peiffer; C. Pérez de los Heros; S. Philippen; D. Pieloth; E. Pinat; A. Pizzuto; M. Plum; A. Porcelli; P.B. Price; G.T. Przybylski; C. Raab; A. Raissi; M. Rameez; L. Rauch; K. Rawlins; I.C. Rea; R. Reimann; B. Relethford; M. Renschler; G. Renzi; E. Resconi; W. Rhode; M. Richman; S. Robertson; M. Rongen; C. Rott; T. Ruhe; D. Ryckbosch; D. Rysewyk; I. Safa; S.E. Sanchez Herrera; A. Sandrock; J. Sandroos; M. Santander; S. Sarkar; S. Sarkar; K. Satalecka; M. Schaufel; H. Schieler; P. Schlunder; T. Schmidt; A. Schneider; J. Schneider; F.G. Schröder; L. Schumacher; S. Sclafani; D. Seckel; S. Seunarine; S. Shefali; M. Silva; R. Snihur; J. Soedingrekso; D. Soldin; M. Song; G.M. Spiczak; C. Spiering; J. Stachurska; M. Stamatikos; T. Stanev; R. Stein; P. Steinmüller; J. Stettner; A. Steuer; T. Stezelberger; R.G. Stokstad; A. Stößl; N.L. Strotjohann; T. Stürwald; T. Stuttard; G.W. Sullivan; I. Taboada; F. Tenholt; S. Ter-Antonyan; A. Terliuk; S. Tilav; K. Tollefson; L. Tomankova; C. Tönnis; S. Toscano; D. Tosi; A. Trettin; M. Tselengidou; C.F. Tung; A. Turcati; R. Turcotte; C.F. Turley; B. Ty; E. Unger; M.A. Unland Elorrieta; M. Usner; J. Vandenbroucke; W. Van Driessche; D. van Eijk; N. van Eijndhoven; S. Vanheule; J. van Santen; M. Vraeghe; C. Walck; A. Wallace; M. Wallraff; N. Wandkowsky; T.B. Watson; C. Weaver; A. Weindl; M.J. Weiss; J. Weldert; C. Wendt; J. Werthebach; B.J. Whelan; N. Whitehorn; K. Wiebe; C.H. Wiebusch; L. Wille; D.R. Williams; L. Wills; M. Wolf; J. Wood; T.R. Wood; K. Woschnagg; G. Wrede; D.L. Xu; X.W. Xu; Y. Xu; J.P. Yanez; G. Yodh; S. Yoshida; T. Yuan; M. Zöcklein

doi:10.1088/1475-7516/2019/10/048

Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics

Efficient propagation of systematic uncertainties from calibration to analysis with the SnowStorm method in IceCube

M.G. Aartsen¹⁶, M. Ackermann⁵⁴, J. Adams¹⁶, J.A. Aguilar¹², M. Ahlers²⁰, C. Alispach²⁶, B. Al Atoum⁴, K. Andeen³⁷, T. Anderson⁵¹, I. Ansseau¹², G. Anton²⁴, C. Argüelles¹⁴, J. Auffenberg¹, S. Axani¹⁴, P. Backes¹, H. Bagherpour¹⁶, X. Bai⁴³, A. Balagopal V.²⁹, A. Barbano²⁶, S.W. Barwick²⁸, B. Bastian⁵⁴, V. Baum³⁶, S. Baur¹², R. Bay⁸, J.J. Beatty^18,19, K.-H. Becker⁵³, J. Becker Tjus¹¹, S. BenZvi⁴⁵, D. Berley¹⁷, E. Bernardini⁵⁴, D.Z. Besson³⁰, G. Binder^8,9, D. Bindig⁵³, E. Blaufuss¹⁷, S. Blot⁵⁴, C. Bohm⁴⁶, M. Börner²¹, S. Böser³⁶, O. Botner⁵², J. Böttcher¹, E. Bourbeau²⁰, J. Bourbeau³⁵, F. Bradascio⁵⁴, J. Braun³⁵, S. Bron²⁶, J. Brostean-Kaiser⁵⁴, A. Burgman⁵², J. Buscher¹, R.S. Busse³⁸, T. Carver²⁶, C. Chen⁶, E. Cheung¹⁷, D. Chirkin³⁵, S. Choi⁴⁸, K. Clark³¹, L. Classen³⁸, A. Coleman³⁹, G.H. Collin¹⁴, J.M. Conrad¹⁴, P. Coppin¹³, P. Correa¹³, D.F. Cowen^50,51, R. Cross⁴⁵, P. Dave⁶, C. De Clercq¹³, J.J. DeLaunay⁵¹, H. Dembinski³⁹, K. Deoskar⁴⁶, S. De Ridder²⁷, P. Desiati³⁵, K.D. de Vries¹³, G. de Wasseige¹³, M. de With¹⁰, T. DeYoung²², A. Diaz¹⁴, J.C. Díaz-Vélez³⁵, H. Dujmovic⁴⁸, M. Dunkman⁵¹, E. Dvorak⁴³, B. Eberhardt³⁵, T. Ehrhardt³⁶, P. Eller⁵¹, R. Engel²⁹, P.A. Evenson³⁹, S. Fahey³⁵, A.R. Fazely⁷, J. Felde¹⁷, K. Filimonov⁸, C. Finley⁴⁶, A. Franckowiak⁵⁴, E. Friedman¹⁷, A. Fritz³⁶, T.K. Gaisser³⁹, J. Gallagher³⁴, E. Ganster¹, S. Garrappa⁵⁴, L. Gerhardt⁹, K. Ghorbani³⁵, T. Glauch²⁵, T. Glüsenkamp²⁴, A. Goldschmidt⁹, J.G. Gonzalez³⁹, D. Grant²², Z. Griffith³⁵, S. Griswold⁴⁵, M. Günder¹, M. Gündüz¹¹, C. Haack¹, A. Hallgren⁵², L. Halve¹, F. Halzen³⁵, K. Hanson³⁵, A. Haungs²⁹, D. Hebecker¹⁰, D. Heereman¹², P. Heix¹, K. Helbing⁵³, R. Hellauer¹⁷, F. Henningsen²⁵, S. Hickford⁵³, J. Hignight²³, G.C. Hill², K.D. Hoffman¹⁷, R. Hoffmann⁵³, T. Hoinka²¹, B. Hokanson-Fasig³⁵, K. Hoshina³⁵, F. Huang⁵¹, M. Huber²⁵, T. Huber^29,54, K. Hultqvist⁴⁶, M. Hünnefeld²¹, R. Hussain³⁵, S. In⁴⁸, N. Iovine¹², A. Ishihara¹⁵, G.S. Japaridze⁵, M. Jeong⁴⁸, K. Jero³⁵, B.J. P. Jones⁴, F. Jonske¹, R. Joppe¹, D. Kang²⁹, W. Kang⁴⁸, A. Kappes³⁸, D. Kappesser³⁶, T. Karg⁵⁴, M. Karl²⁵, A. Karle³⁵, U. Katz²⁴, M. Kauer³⁵, J.L. Kelley³⁵, A. Kheirandish³⁵, J. Kim⁴⁸, T. Kintscher⁵⁴, J. Kiryluk⁴⁷, T. Kittler²⁴, S.R. Klein^8,9, R. Koirala³⁹, H. Kolanoski¹⁰, L. Köpke³⁶, C. Kopper²², S. Kopper⁴⁹, D.J. Koskinen²⁰, M. Kowalski^10,54, K. Krings²⁵, G. Krückl³⁶, N. Kulacz²³, N. Kurahashi⁴², A. Kyriacou², M. Labare²⁷, J.L. Lanfranchi⁵¹, M.J. Larson¹⁷, F. Lauber⁵³, J.P. Lazar³⁵, K. Leonard³⁵, A. Leszczyńska²⁹, M. Leuermann¹, Q.R. Liu³⁵, E. Lohfink³⁶, C.J. Lozano Mariscal³⁸, L. Lu¹⁵, F. Lucarelli²⁶, J. Lünemann¹³, W. Luszczak³⁵, Y. Lyu^8,9, W.Y. Ma⁵⁴, J. Madsen⁴⁴, G. Maggi¹³, K.B. M. Mahn²², Y. Makino¹⁵, P. Mallik¹, K. Mallot³⁵, S. Mancina³⁵, I.C. Mariş¹², R. Maruyama⁴⁰, K. Mase¹⁵, R. Maunu¹⁷, F. McNally³³, K. Meagher³⁵, M. Medici²⁰, A. Medina¹⁹, M. Meier²¹, S. Meighen-Berger²⁵, T. Menne²¹, G. Merino³⁵, T. Meures¹², J. Micallef²², D. Mockler¹², G. Momenté³⁶, T. Montaruli²⁶, R.W. Moore²³, R. Morse³⁵, M. Moulai¹⁴, P. Muth¹, R. Nagai¹⁵, U. Naumann⁵³, G. Neer²², H. Niederhausen²⁵, S.C. Nowicki²², D.R. Nygren⁹, A. Obertacke Pollmann⁵³, M. Oehler²⁹, A. Olivas¹⁷, A. O'Murchadha¹², E. O'Sullivan⁴⁶, T. Palczewski^8,9, H. Pandya³⁹, D.V. Pankova⁵¹, N. Park³⁵, P. Peiffer³⁶, C. Pérez de los Heros⁵², S. Philippen¹, D. Pieloth²¹, E. Pinat¹², A. Pizzuto³⁵, M. Plum³⁷, A. Porcelli²⁷, P.B. Price⁸, G.T. Przybylski⁹, C. Raab¹², A. Raissi¹⁶, M. Rameez²⁰, L. Rauch⁵⁴, K. Rawlins³, I.C. Rea²⁵, R. Reimann¹, B. Relethford⁴², M. Renschler²⁹, G. Renzi¹², E. Resconi²⁵, W. Rhode²¹, M. Richman⁴², S. Robertson⁹, M. Rongen¹, C. Rott⁴⁸, T. Ruhe²¹, D. Ryckbosch²⁷, D. Rysewyk²², I. Safa³⁵, S.E. Sanchez Herrera²², A. Sandrock²¹, J. Sandroos³⁶, M. Santander⁴⁹, S. Sarkar⁴¹, S. Sarkar²³, K. Satalecka⁵⁴, M. Schaufel¹, H. Schieler²⁹, P. Schlunder²¹, T. Schmidt¹⁷, A. Schneider³⁵, J. Schneider²⁴, F.G. Schröder^29,39, L. Schumacher¹, S. Sclafani⁴², D. Seckel³⁹, S. Seunarine⁴⁴, S. Shefali¹, M. Silva³⁵, R. Snihur³⁵, J. Soedingrekso²¹, D. Soldin³⁹, M. Song¹⁷, G.M. Spiczak⁴⁴, C. Spiering⁵⁴, J. Stachurska⁵⁴, M. Stamatikos¹⁹, T. Stanev³⁹, R. Stein⁵⁴, P. Steinmüller²⁹, J. Stettner¹, A. Steuer³⁶, T. Stezelberger⁹, R.G. Stokstad⁹, A. Stößl¹⁵, N.L. Strotjohann⁵⁴, T. Stürwald¹, T. Stuttard²⁰, G.W. Sullivan¹⁷, I. Taboada⁶, F. Tenholt¹¹, S. Ter-Antonyan⁷, A. Terliuk⁵⁴, S. Tilav³⁹, K. Tollefson²², L. Tomankova¹¹, C. Tönnis⁴⁸, S. Toscano¹², D. Tosi³⁵, A. Trettin⁵⁴, M. Tselengidou²⁴, C.F. Tung⁶, A. Turcati²⁵, R. Turcotte²⁹, C.F. Turley⁵¹, B. Ty³⁵, E. Unger⁵², M.A. Unland Elorrieta³⁸, M. Usner⁵⁴, J. Vandenbroucke³⁵, W. Van Driessche²⁷, D. van Eijk³⁵, N. van Eijndhoven¹³, S. Vanheule²⁷, J. van Santen⁵⁴, M. Vraeghe²⁷, C. Walck⁴⁶, A. Wallace², M. Wallraff¹, N. Wandkowsky³⁵, T.B. Watson⁴, C. Weaver²³, A. Weindl²⁹, M.J. Weiss⁵¹, J. Weldert³⁶, C. Wendt³⁵, J. Werthebach³⁵, B.J. Whelan², N. Whitehorn³², K. Wiebe³⁶, C.H. Wiebusch¹, L. Wille³⁵, D.R. Williams⁴⁹, L. Wills⁴², M. Wolf²⁵, J. Wood³⁵, T.R. Wood²³, K. Woschnagg⁸, G. Wrede²⁴, D.L. Xu³⁵, X.W. Xu⁷, Y. Xu⁴⁷, J.P. Yanez²³, G. Yodh²⁸, S. Yoshida¹⁵, T. Yuan³⁵ and M. Zöcklein¹

Published 21 October 2019 • © 2019 IOP Publishing Ltd and Sissa Medialab
Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics, Volume 2019, October 2019 Citation M.G. Aartsen et al JCAP10(2019)048 DOI 10.1088/1475-7516/2019/10/048

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¹ III. Physikalisches Institut, RWTH Aachen University, D-52056 Aachen, Germany

² Department of Physics, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, 5005, Australia

³ Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, University of Alaska Anchorage, 3211 Providence Dr., Anchorage, AK 99508, U.S.A.

⁴ Dept. of Physics, University of Texas at Arlington, 502 Yates St., Science Hall Rm 108, Box 19059, Arlington, TX 76019, U.S.A.

⁵ CTSPS, Clark-Atlanta University, Atlanta, GA 30314, U.S.A.

⁶ School of Physics and Center for Relativistic Astrophysics, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, U.S.A.

⁷ Dept. of Physics, Southern University, Baton Rouge, LA 70813, U.S.A.

⁸ Dept. of Physics, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, U.S.A.

⁹ Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, U.S.A.

¹⁰ Institut für Physik, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, D-12489 Berlin, Germany

¹¹ Fakultät für Physik & Astronomie, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, D-44780 Bochum, Germany

¹² Université Libre de Bruxelles, Science Faculty CP230, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium

¹³ Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), Dienst ELEM, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium

¹⁴ Dept. of Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, U.S.A.

¹⁵ Dept. of Physics and Institute for Global Prominent Research, Chiba University, Chiba 263-8522, Japan

¹⁶ Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, New Zealand

¹⁷ Dept. of Physics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, U.S.A.

¹⁸ Dept. of Astronomy, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, U.S.A.

¹⁹ Dept. of Physics and Center for Cosmology and Astro-Particle Physics, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, U.S.A.

²⁰ Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark

²¹ Dept. of Physics, TU Dortmund University, D-44221 Dortmund, Germany

²² Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, U.S.A.

²³ Dept. of Physics, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, T6G 2E1, Canada

²⁴ Erlangen Centre for Astroparticle Physics, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, D-91058 Erlangen, Germany

²⁵ Physik-department, Technische Universität München, D-85748 Garching, Germany

²⁶ Département de physique nucléaire et corpusculaire, Université de Genève, CH-1211 Genève, Switzerland

²⁷ Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, University of Gent, B-9000 Gent, Belgium

²⁸ Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, U.S.A.

²⁹ Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institut für Kernphysik, D-76021 Karlsruhe, Germany

³⁰ Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, U.S.A.

³¹ SNOLAB, 1039 Regional Road 24, Creighton Mine 9, Lively, ON, P3Y 1N2, Canada

³² Department of Physics and Astronomy, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095, U.S.A.

³³ Department of Physics, Mercer University, Macon, GA 31207-0001, U.S.A.

³⁴ Dept. of Astronomy, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, U.S.A.

³⁵ Dept. of Physics and Wisconsin IceCube Particle Astrophysics Center, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, U.S.A.

³⁶ Institute of Physics, University of Mainz, Staudinger Weg 7, D-55099 Mainz, Germany

³⁷ Department of Physics, Marquette University, Milwaukee, WI, 53201, U.S.A.

³⁸ Institut für Kernphysik, Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster, D-48149 Münster, Germany

³⁹ Bartol Research Institute and Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716, U.S.A.

⁴⁰ Dept. of Physics, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520, U.S.A.

⁴¹ Dept. of Physics, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PU, U.K.

⁴² Dept. of Physics, Drexel University, 3141 Chestnut Street, Philadelphia, PA 19104, U.S.A.

⁴³ Physics Department, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD 57701, U.S.A.

⁴⁴ Dept. of Physics, University of Wisconsin, River Falls, WI 54022, U.S.A.

⁴⁵ Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627, U.S.A.

⁴⁶ Oskar Klein Centre and Dept. of Physics, Stockholm University, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden

⁴⁷ Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794-3800, U.S.A.

⁴⁸ Dept. of Physics, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon 16419, Korea

⁴⁹ Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487, U.S.A.

⁵⁰ Dept. of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, U.S.A.

⁵¹ Dept. of Physics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, U.S.A.

⁵² Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala University, Box 516, S-75120 Uppsala, Sweden

⁵³ Dept. of Physics, University of Wuppertal, D-42119 Wuppertal, Germany

⁵⁴ DESY, D-15738 Zeuthen, Germany

Dates

Received 7 September 2019
Accepted 2 October 2019
Published 21 October 2019

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Abstract

Efficient treatment of systematic uncertainties that depend on a large number of nuisance parameters is a persistent difficulty in particle physics and astrophysics experiments. Where low-level effects are not amenable to simple parameterization or re-weighting, analyses often rely on discrete simulation sets to quantify the effects of nuisance parameters on key analysis observables. Such methods may become computationally untenable for analyses requiring high statistics Monte Carlo with a large number of nuisance degrees of freedom, especially in cases where these degrees of freedom parameterize the shape of a continuous distribution. In this paper we present a method for treating systematic uncertainties in a computationally efficient and comprehensive manner using a single simulation set with multiple and continuously varied nuisance parameters. This method is demonstrated for the case of the depth-dependent effective dust distribution within the IceCube Neutrino Telescope.

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