Abstract
The coupling uncertainties have already become the greatest difficulty in assessing the reliability of multistage transmission systems. A new reliability assessment method of rotor system with uncertainties is proposed here. The probability density functions (PDF) of the state functions are re-derived by introducing the divergence control parameter of uncertainty from nonparametric modeling method and the Lagrange multipliers involved are calculated by the Sigel function method. Then, the joint PDF of all state functions is calculated so that the reliability prediction of multistage systems can be effectively carried out. Both the coupling uncertainties and the intensity of uncertainties are formulated in the PDF of the state functions. Furthermore, the short-period prediction method is improved to avoid wrong judgments caused by excessive neighbor radius. Numerical simulation suggests a reference for which degree of uncertainty can be accepted. It's very helpful to predict the evolution of operation status and avoid the occurrence of faults.
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