Experimental approach to assessing actual wine purchase behavior

The use of intentions to forecast behavior follows from the assumption that intentions are a strong indicator of an individual's actual purchase behavior. Yet most studies found the relationship between intent and actual behavior varies considerably. The purpose of this study was to explore how marketers should combine expressed measures of intention with other available data to forecast the probability of purchase and thus to set pricing decisions.

Through a two‐stage approach, this study measured consumer psychographics and expressed purchase intention to predict actual purchase behavior using an online survey, the Vickrey auction method, and logistic regression.

The results found that individuals' attitudes and intentions are strong predictors of actual behavior. However, of particular interest are lower‐purchase‐intention individuals, who acted in line with their expressed willingness to pay more than individuals with higher purchase intentions.

The study was restricted to the investigation of one product. The model should be tested with different styles of wine products purchased on a regular basis.

Most product positioning research focuses on individuals who express high levels of purchase intention, positive attitudes, and positive values. However, basing a wine product's pricing on a high‐purchase‐intention group may lead to an overpriced product and a lack of follow‐through on the part of consumers.

Results suggest a new method to approach purchase intention using a combination of actual purchase data and survey data.