Reporting crime to the police, 1973-2005: a multivariate analysis of long-term trends in the National Crime Survey (NCS) and National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)

Reporting crime to the police, 1973-2005: a multivariate analysis of long-term trends in the National Crime Survey (NCS) and National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)

Reporting crime to the police, 1973-2005: a multivariate analysis of long-term trends in the National Crime Survey (NCS) and National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)

Article Type: Perspectives on policing From: Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management, Volume 33, Issue 3

Eric P. Baumer and Janet L. Lauritsen,Criminology,Vol. 48,2010,pp. 131-185,

This study examined the changes over the long run in the likelihood of crime reporting to the police. Baumer and Lauritsen integrated NCS and NCVS data to collect information on crime incidents from 1973 through 2005. The sample included 97,016 non-lethal violent crimes and 525,858 property crimes. In estimating the likelihood of police notification, i.e. whether an incident is reported to the police by victims or third parties, the primary independent variable was the year in which the crime incident occurred. They controlled for crime type, the victim-offender relationship, demographic attributes of the victim and the offender including socio-economic status, household structure, nature of the crime, and the mode of the administration of the survey. Their analytic strategy accounted for the temporal changes in the nature of crimes captured by the surveys, as well as for the major redesign of the national crime survey in the 1990s.

Not surprisingly, the results showed that 40 per cent of violent crimes and 32 per cent of property crimes recorded in the national crime surveys were reported to the police. However, statistically significant changes have occurred in past 30 years. Except for robbery, there has been an increase in the likelihood of police notification of violent crimes. This includes a substantial increase in the likelihood of reporting sexual offences since the early 1970s (39 per cent), and simple assaults (48 per cent) and aggravated assaults (25 per cent) since the mid-1980s. There was some variation, but reporting violent crimes has significantly increased since the mid-1980s across gender, race and ethnicity, and victim-offender relationship. Significant increases in the probability of property crime reporting were also found; overall, the probability increased by 8 percentage points (i.e. from 0.28 in 1973 to 0.36 in 2005).

Police notification rates are meaningful, especially in a community-policing era. That is, increases in police notification might signal improved communications between the police and the community or increased trust and confidence in the police, both of which are key goals in community policing. Other temporal and social changes might also explain the increases in police notification and, as such, ought to be explored in further research on trends in crime reporting.

Angela K. Reitler