An analysis of factors influencing the output value of unit sown area based on grey incidence analysis

The paper aims to clarify the relationship between the output value of unit sown area (OVUSA) and its major influential factors by taking Jiangsu Province, People's Republic of China as an instance, followed by some suggestions for adjusting the agricultural inputs.

The paper is characterized by an exploratory research by constructing a grey incidence model (GIM) based on the grey system theory (GST) initiated by Chinese professor Julong Deng. The original data processed in the model are quoted from Jiangsu Statistics web site and the Statistical Yearbook of Jiangsu Province.

The analysis indicates several noteworthy points in the following areas. To start with, the proportion of irrigated area to sown area has turned out to be a stabilizing factor influencing OVUSA; next, the contributions of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers' output to the growth of the OVUSA were reduced, while the marginal outputs of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers seemed to be lower; then the outputs of potash and compound fertilizers have made significant contributions to the growth of the OVUSA, although their application rates were drastically increased; besides, the total power of agricultural machinery was a major factor boosting the growth of the OVUSA; furthermore, the decrease of labor force was obviously remarkably related to the reduction of OVUSA; finally, the areas affected by natural disasters have had a foremost impact on OVUSA reduction.

Suggestions are also proposed to the related policy-makers as follows: to reasonably control the application rates of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers, to encourage fertilizer manufacturing enterprises to develop potassium mineral resources with the purpose of guaranteeing the potash fertilizer's supply, to scientifically design the composition of compound fertilizers in order to satisfy the needs of cultivated lands in different areas, to improve the quality and structure of agricultural labor forces with the aim of meeting emerging trends in the agricultural industry, to make every effort to further modernize the current agricultural industry, and to enhance the disaster-prevention capability of the agricultural industry by gradually converting it into a controllable one.