Open Access
2023 General epidemiological models: law of large numbers and contact tracing
Jean-Jil Duchamps, Félix Foutel-Rodier, Emmanuel Schertzer
Author Affiliations +
Electron. J. Probab. 28: 1-37 (2023). DOI: 10.1214/23-EJP992

Abstract

We study a class of individual-based, fixed-population size epidemic models under general assumptions, e.g., heterogeneous contact rates encapsulating changes in behavior and/or enforcement of control measures. We show that the large-population dynamics are deterministic and relate to the Kermack–McKendrick PDE. Our assumptions are minimalistic in the sense that the only important requirement is that the basic reproduction number of the epidemic R0 be finite, and allow us to tackle both Markovian and non-Markovian dynamics. The novelty of our approach is to study the “infection graph” of the population. We show local convergence of this random graph to a Poisson (Galton–Watson) marked tree, recovering Markovian backward-in-time dynamics in the limit as we trace back the transmission chain leading to a focal infection. This effectively models the process of contact tracing in a large population. It is expressed in terms of the Doob h-transform of a certain renewal process encoding the time of infection along the chain. Our results provide a mathematical formulation relating a fundamental epidemiological quantity, the generation time distribution, to the successive time of infections along this transmission chain.

Acknowledgments

We thank an anonymous referee for a very careful reading of our work, in particular for their detailed comments that led to substantial improvements of the exposition of several arguments.

Citation

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Jean-Jil Duchamps. Félix Foutel-Rodier. Emmanuel Schertzer. "General epidemiological models: law of large numbers and contact tracing." Electron. J. Probab. 28 1 - 37, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1214/23-EJP992

Information

Received: 21 January 2022; Accepted: 6 July 2023; Published: 2023
First available in Project Euclid: 21 July 2023

MathSciNet: MR4617936
zbMATH: 1520.92061
arXiv: 2106.13135
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/23-EJP992

Subjects:
Primary: 60K35 , 69J85 , 92D30

Keywords: contact-tracing , Crump–Mode–Jagers process with interaction , functional law of large numbers , infection graph , Kermack–McKendrick model , Local weak convergence , non-Markovian epidemic model

Vol.28 • 2023
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