Abstract
Credit markets in emerging economies can be distinguished from those in advanced economies in many respects, including the collateral required for households to borrow. This work proposes a DSGE framework to analyze one peculiarity that characterizes the credit markets of some emerging markets: payroll-deducted personal loans. We add the possibility for households to contract long-term debt and compare two different types of credit constraints with one another, one based on housing and the other based on future income. We estimate the model for Brazil using a Bayesian technique. The model is able to solve a puzzle of the Brazilian economy: responses to monetary shocks at first appear to be strong but dissipate quickly. This occurs because income – and the amount available for loans – responds more rapidly to monetary shocks than housing prices. To smooth consumption, agents (borrowers) compensate for lower income and for borrowing by working more hours to repay loans and erase debt in a shorter time. Therefore, in addition to the income and substitution effects, workers consider the effects on their credit constraints when deciding how much labor to supply, which becomes an additional channel through which financial frictions affect the economy.
Appendix
Prior and posterior marginal distribution. The marginal posterior densities are based on 10 chain, each which 100,000 draws based on the Metropolis algorithm. Black lines denote the posterior distribution and gray lines the prior distribution.
Prior and posterior marginal distributions.
Prior and posterior marginal distributions.
Prior and posterior marginal distributions.
Prior and posterior marginal distributions.
Impulse response function of a contractionary monetary policy shock.
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