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Bayesian inference for unit root in smooth transition autoregressive models and its application to OECD countries

  • Shivam Jaiswal , Anoop Chaturvedi and Muhammad Ishaq Bhatti ORCID logo EMAIL logo

Abstract

This paper proposes a Bayesian unit root test for testing a non-stationary random walk of nonlinear exponential smooth transition autoregressive process. It investigates the performance of Bayes estimators and Bayesian unit root test due to its superiority in estimation and power properties than reported in existing literature. The proposed approach is applied to the real effective exchange rates of 10 selected countries of the organization of economic co-operation and development (OECD) and the paper observe some interesting findings which demonstrate the usefulness of the model.


Corresponding author: Muhammad Ishaq Bhatti, Department of Economics, Finance & Marketing, LaTrobe Business School, La Trobe University, Melbourne, VIC 3082, Australia, Email:

Acknowledgments

We are thankful to anonymous referees and the editor for valuable comments which have improved the paper. The first author, Shivam Jaiswal, is grateful to the Department of Science and Technology (DST), Government of India for their financial support (INSPIRE fellowship IF150749) to pursue his research and M. I. Bhatti acknowledge OSP leave During 2019 from La Trobe Business school which enable to complete the final version of this paper at Minhaj University, Lahore.

  1. Author contributions: All the authors have accepted responsibility for the entire content of this submitted manuscript and approved submission.

  2. Research funding: None declared.

  3. Conflict of interest statement: The authors declare no conflicts of interest regarding this article.

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Received: 2019-11-02
Accepted: 2020-12-05
Published Online: 2020-12-14

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