본 연구는 기후변화협약 논의동향과 교토의정서 협상이 한국경제에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위해, 기후변화협약의 추진현황 및 교토의정서 발효와 영향을 살펴보았다. 교토의정서의 협상전략을 분석하기 위해 첫째, 포스트 교토의정서 협상을 3단계 시나리오로 나누어 분석하고, 둘째, 교토의정서가 한국경제에 미치는 영향분석을 시도하였다.
분석 결과, 포스트 교토의정서 협상의 예상시나리오는 미국과 유럽을 중심으로 첨예한 자국의 이해관계를 중심으로 복잡하게 얽혀있어 구체적인 예상시나리오를 도출하기 어려웠다. 그러나 최근 탄소배출권 시장이 급성장하는 등 기후변화협정에 유럽의 영향력이 점차 커지고 있는 실정으로 보아, 향후 어떤 형태든 우리의 온실가스 감축의무에 대한 압력은 더욱 커질 것이다. 그리고 두 번째 분석으로 교토의정서가 한국경제에 미치는 영향력 분석에서 기준안 1의 경우에는 시나리오 1이 가장 수용 가능한 경우이며, 기준안 2에서는 시나리오 2가 가장 수용 가능한 것으로 분석되었다. 따라서 향후 선진국과의 협상에서는 시나리오 분석결과를 활용하여 자발적 배출억제 안을 제시할 필요가 있다.
This paper examines the prospects of UNFCCC((UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) and the negotiation scenario of Kyoto Protocol. Climate change became the most urgent global environmental problem in 21 century. The Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC, which came into force on February 12, 2005, is aimed at tackling the problem of global climate change by establishing specific and binding country targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. These targets must be met within a five year time frame between 2008 and 2012, and add up to a total cut in emissions of at least 5% against the baseline of 1990. We need to take steps to make specific rules and create guidance for the post-Kyoto Protocol by drawing efficient internal and external negotiation strategies. This study creates scenarios to predict the negotiation of Kyoto Protocol and identifies various influences on the korean economy based on these scenarios. The post-Kyoto Protocol regulates the whole process of negotiations for cost-effective emissions reduction scenarios, i.e., Scenario 1(EU, Japan), Scenario 2(U.S., China), Scenario 3(other country). Therefore, this paper proposed some policy implications to prepare strategic measures to improve competitiveness of the korean industry sector.
This paper examines the prospects of UNFCCC((UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) and the negotiation scenario of Kyoto Protocol. Climate change became the most urgent global environmental problem in 21 century. The Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC, which came into force on February 12, 2005, is aimed at tackling the problem of global climate change by establishing specific and binding country targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. These targets must be met within a five year time frame between 2008 and 2012, and add up to a total cut in emissions of at least 5% against the baseline of 1990. We need to take steps to make specific rules and create guidance for the post-Kyoto Protocol by drawing efficient internal and external negotiation strategies. This study creates scenarios to predict the negotiation of Kyoto Protocol and identifies various influences on the korean economy based on these scenarios. The post-Kyoto Protocol regulates the whole process of negotiations for cost-effective emissions reduction scenarios, i.e., Scenario 1(EU, Japan), Scenario 2(U.S., China), Scenario 3(other country). Therefore, this paper proposed some policy implications to prepare strategic measures to improve competitiveness of the korean industry sector.
