Abstract
Objectives
To explore tuberculosis (TB) incidence in Canada and the United States from 1953 to 2015. In the most recent decade, the US incidence was lower than that of Canada. Since both countries are high income and have low TB incidence with similar TB surveillance programs, we hypothesized that rates should be similar.
Methods
TB incidence data from 1953 to 2015 were retrieved for both countries. Joinpoint regression was performed to identify change points in the trend, and direct standardization of US rates using Canadian ethnic population distribution was calculated. Adjusted rate and average annual percent change (AAPC) were estimated.
Results
Canada rates/100,000 were higher from 1953 to 1974 and similar from 1975 to 1985. This coincided with a change in US case definition in 1975. US rates were higher from 1986 to 1996. HIV/TB coinfection in the USA was 10.2% compared to that of Canada, 1.6%. Rates were similar from 1997 to 2004. Canada rates were again higher from 2005 to 2015. The Canada average AAPC rate in 1975–2015 was lower, − 2.9%, compared to that of the USA, − 4.1%. Foreign-born and Indigenous population proportions were 20.2% and 4.2% for Canada and 12.9% and 1.7% for the USA. The US rate adjusted to the Canada ethnic composition was 4.8 compared to the Canadian rate of 4.7.
Conclusion
Case definition change and HIV coinfection contributed to the 1980 US rate increase. TB rates decreased in both countries from 1997, but more rapidly in the USA. The Canada proportion of foreign-born and Indigenous populations was higher. When US rates were standardized by Canada ethnic distribution, the national rates were similar. Further exploration of factors contributing to differences between these countries is needed.
Résumé
Objectifs
Explorer l’incidence de la tuberculose au Canada et aux États-Unis de 1953 à 2015. Au cours des 10 dernières années à l’étude, l’incidence aux États-Unis a été plus faible qu’au Canada. Étant donné que ce sont deux pays à revenu élevé, à faible incidence de tuberculose et avec des programmes de surveillance de la tuberculose similaires, nous avons émis l’hypothèse que les taux devraient être similaires.
Méthode
Nous avons obtenu les données sur l’incidence de la tuberculose de 1953 à 2015 pour les deux pays. Nous avons effectué une régression joinpoint pour repérer les points de changement dans les tendances et standardisé directement les taux américains en fonction de la répartition ethnique de la population canadienne. Les taux ajustés et le pourcentage de changement annuel moyen (PCAM) ont été estimés.
Résultats
Les taux pour 100,000 du Canada ont été supérieurs à ceux des États-Unis de 1953 à 1974 et semblables à ceux des États-Unis de 1975 à 1985. Cela a coïncidé avec un changement dans la définition des cas aux États-Unis en 1975. Les taux américains ont été supérieurs de 1986 à 1996. Le taux de coïnfection VIH/tuberculose aux États-Unis était de 10,2 %, contre 1,6 % au Canada. Les taux ont de nouveau été semblables de 1997 à 2004. Les taux canadiens sont redevenus supérieurs de 2005 à 2015. Le PCAM au Canada entre 1975 et 2015 a été inférieur à celui aux États-Unis (−2,9 % contre −4,1 %). Les proportions de personnes nées à l’étranger et d’Amérindiens étaient de 20,2 % et de 4,2 % au Canada et de 12,9 % et de 1,7 % aux États-Unis. Le taux américain ajusté selon la composition ethnique du Canada était de 4,8, comparativement à 4,7 pour le Canada.
Conclusion
Le changement dans la définition des cas et la coïnfection par le VIH ont contribué à la hausse des taux américains dans les années 1980. Les taux de tuberculose ont diminué dans les deux pays à partir de 1997, mais plus rapidement aux États-Unis. Au Canada, la proportion de personnes nées à l’étranger et d’Amérindiens était plus élevée. Quand nous avons standardisé les taux américains pour tenir compte de la répartition ethnique du Canada, nous avons obtenu des taux nationaux similaires. Il faudrait néanmoins pousser l’étude des facteurs qui contribuent aux différences entre les deux pays.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Armstrong, L. R., & Miramontes, R. (2014). Public health surveillance for tuberculosis. In N. M. M'ikanatha & J. K. Iskander (Eds.), Concepts and methods in infectious disease surveillance (pp. 147–159). Chichester: John Wiley & Sons Ltd..
Baker, B. J., Winston, C. A., Liu, Y., France, A. M., & Cain, K. P. (2016). Abrupt decline in tuberculosis among foreign-born persons in the United States. PLoS One, 11(2), e0147353.
Birnbaum, D., Ely, J. W., Dawson, J. D., Lemke, J. H., & Rosenberg, J. (1997). An introduction to time-trend analysis. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol, 18(4), 267–274.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2015). TB program objectives & performance targets for 2020. https://www.cdc.gov/tb/programs/evaluation/indicators/default.htm. Accessed 5 May 2018.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2011). MMWR, 61(11), 181–185 https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6111a2.htm. Accessed 17 May 2019.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (2017). Reported tuberculosis in the United States (p. 2016). Atlanta: US Department of Health and Human Services.
Chiang, C. Y., Van Weezenbeek, C., Mori, T., & Enarson, D. A. (2013). Challenges to the global control of tuberculosis. Respirology, 18(4), 596–604.
Gallant, V., Ogunnaike-Cooke, S., & McGuire, M. (2014). Tuberculosis in Canada: 1924–2012. Can Commun Dis Rep, 40(6), 99–108.
Gallant, V., Duvvuri, V., & McGuire, M. (2017). Tuberculosis in Canada-summary 2015. Can Commun Dis Rep, 43(3–4), 77–82.
Grieco, E. M., Acosta, Y. D., De la Cruz, G. P., Gambino, C., Gryn, T., Larsen, L. J., et al. (2012). The foreign-born population in the United States: 2010. https://www.census.gov/prod/2012pubs/acs-19.pdf. Accessed 13 May 2018.
Grigg, E. R. (1958). The arcana of tuberculosis; with a brief epidemiologic history of the disease in the USA III. American Review of Tuberculosis, 78(3), 426.
Grzybowski, S., & Allen, E. A. (1999). Tuberculosis: 2. History of the disease in Canada. Can Med Assoc J, 160(7), 1025–1028.
Index Mundi (2018) Net migration rate top 100 countries. https://www.indexmundi.com/map/?t=0&v=27&r=xx&l=en. Accessed 12 June 2018.
Kim, H. J., Fay, M. P., Feuer, E. J., & Midthune, D. N. (2000). Permutation tests for joinpoint regression with applications to cancer rates. Statistics Medicine, 19(3), 335–351.
Lönnroth, K., Migliori, G. B., Abubakar, I., D’Ambrosio, L., De Vries, G., Diel, R., et al. (2015). Towards tuberculosis elimination: an action framework for low-incidence countries. European Respiratory Journal, 45(4), 928–952.
Menzies, D., & Elwood, K. (2014). Treatment of tuberculosis disease. In D. Menzies (Ed.), Canadian tuberculosis standards (7th ed., pp. 97–123). Ottawa: Public Health Agency of Canada.
Mor, Z., Migliori, G. B., Althomsons, S. P., Loddenkemper, R., Trnka, L., & Iademarco, M. F. (2008). Comparison of tuberculosis surveillance systems in low-incidence industrialised countries. European Respiratory Journal, 32(16), 16–24.
Mount, F. W., & Ferebee, S. H. (1961). Preventive effects of isoniazid in the treatment of primary tuberculosis in children. New England Journal of Medicine, 265(15), 713–721.
Norris, T., Vines, P. L., Hoeffel, E. M. (2012). The American Indian and Alaska Native population: 2010 census briefs. https://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-10.pdf. Accessed 25 March 2018.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2018). Foreign-born population (indicator). https://data.oecd.org/migration/foreign-born-population.htm#indicator-chart. Accessed 23 Jan 2018.
Public Health Agency of Canada. (2000). Tuberculosis in Canada 1997. Centre for http://publications.gc.ca/collections/Collection/H49-108-1997E.pdf. Accessed 11 July 2018.
Public Health Agency of Canada. (2012). Tuberculosis in Canada 2011. http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/tbpc-latb/pubs/tbcan12/assets/pdf/tbcan12-eng.pdf. Accessed 17 May 2019.
Public Health Agency of Canada. (2014). Tuberculosis prevention and control in Canada: a federal framework for action. Ottawa:Canada. http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/tbpc-latb/pubs/tpc-pct/assets/pdf/tpc-pcta-eng.pdf. Accessed 10 May 2018.
Public Health Agency of Canada. (2015). Tuberculosis in Canada 2012. Ottawa (Canada): Minister of Public Works and Government Services Canada https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/phac-aspc/migration/phac-aspc/tbpc-latb/pubs/tbcan12/assets/pdf/tbcan12-eng.pdf. Accessed 31 July 2018.
Qiu, D., Katanoda, K., Marugame, T., & Sobue, T. (2009). A joinpoint regression analysis of long-term trends in cancer mortality in Japan (1958–2004). International Journal of Cancer, 124(2), 443–448.
Reichman, L. B. (1991). The U-shaped curve of concern. American Review Respiratory Disease, 144, 741–742.
Statistics Canada. (2011). 2011 national household survey. http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/nhs-enm/2011/dp-pd/dt-td/Rp-eng.cfm?LANG=E&APATH=3&DETAIL=0&DIM=0&FL=A&FREE=0&GC=0&GID=0&GK=0&GRP=0&PID=105470&PRID=0&PTYPE=105277&S=0&SHOWALL=Yes&SUB=0&Temporal=2013&THEME=95&VID=0&VNAMEE=&VNAMEF=. Accessed 30 March 2018.
United States Census Bureau 2010. https://www.census.gov/topics/population/foreign-born.html. Accessed 15 May 2019.
United States Congress. Office of Technology Assessment. (1993). The continuing challenge of tuberculosis. Washington, DC: United States Government Printing Office OTA-H-574. http://ota.fas.org/reports/9347.pdf. Accessed 10 May 2018.
Woodruff, R. S. Y., Pratt, R. H., & Armstrong, L. R. (2015). The US national tuberculosis surveillance system: a descriptive assessment of the completeness and consistency of data reported from 2008 to 2012. JMIR Public Health Surveillance, 1(2), 1.
World Bank. (2016). New country classifications by income level: 2016–2017. https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/new-country-classifications-2016. Accessed 2 July 2018.
World Health Organization. (2014). The end TB strategy 2015. http://www.who.int/tb/strategy/End_TB_Strategy.pdf. Accessed 6 April 2018.
World Health Organization. (2018). Tuberculosis. http://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tuberculosis. Accessed 5 May 2018.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Essien, S.K., Epp, T., Waldner, C. et al. Tuberculosis in Canada and the United States: a review of trends from 1953 to 2015. Can J Public Health 110, 697–704 (2019). https://doi.org/10.17269/s41997-019-00236-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17269/s41997-019-00236-x