이 글은 열린우리당의 창당기 이후 진화과정에서 나타난 조직적 특성을 분석하고 이를 통해 정당 이합집산의 조건을 제시하는 데 있다. 이전 집권당과 달리, 열린우리당의 창당과 변화는 선거 전후 ‘단기간’에 ‘자발적’이며 ‘순차적’으로 전개되었다. 집권당임에도 불구하고, 이러한 정당 이합집산이 가능했던 조건은 무엇인가?
이러한 문제의식에서 정당변화 과정을 분석함으로써 정당 이합집산의 조직적 조건을 분석결과로 제시한다. 정당 이합집산은 정당의 조직적 성격과 선거시점의 정당자원에 대한 평가의 결합의 산물이다. 열린우리당은 당선가능성이 높은 외부인사를 반수 이상 공천한 가운데, 현역의원의 높은 자율성으로 인해 강한 지배연합 형성의 계기를 만들지 못하였다. 빈번한 대표체제 교체 속에서 ‘유권자 속의 정당’과 ‘정부 속의 정당’의 분리, 중앙당 기능의 축소는 열린우리당을 ‘계층성구조’를 갖는 카르텔정당으로 발전하도록 하였다. 이러한 조직적 조건에서 부정적 선거예측은 소속의원들이 정당자원에 대해 부정적으로 평가하는 계기가 되었으며 이는 정당자원의 대체가능성 모색으로 이어져, 그 결과는 탈당, 신당창당, 그리고 다시 합당이라는 이합집산이었다.
이 연구의 분석적 함의는 정당의 기능과 대표성에 대한 강조에 있다. 카르텔정당적 발전은 선거성패에 따라 정당조직이 또 다시 전환할 가능성을 높여 선거승리만을 목적으로 한 정당의 조직전환을 빈번히 할 가능성이 높다. 따라서 정당 이합집산은 한국 정당의 장기적 발전을 제약하는 요소로 작용할 가능성이 있다는 점에서 경계해야 한다.
This study analyzes organizational conditions in which a party could choose merger and split. The formation and change of the Uri Party came from the 'spontaneous' and 'step by step’ defections of incumbents, which was different from the previous ruling parties. Why did they dissolve and which conditions make it possible? Based on these questions, this study sees it as the outcome of two dimensions: organizational characteristics and assessment of party resources. For a party with weak relations to members, the negative prediction on electoral result enhances the probability to choose merger and split. As a case, the Uri Party was organized as notable with high electoral winning probability in the level of 'party in the central office’, which led to the failure to make the momentum of formation of strong dominant coalition. Furthermore, the division of two organizations, 'party on the ground’ and 'party in public office’, and the reduction of central party’s function make the organization of cartel party in the middle of frequent shifts in leadership. In addition, negative electoral prediction worked to negative valuation on efficiencies of party resources. As a result, their alternative was the search for substitutability of available resources, which was defection, split and merger again. The implication of this study is the emphasis on function and representation of party. The evolution of cartel party heightens the probabilities of organizational shifts and makes it a pattern of politics without voter’ realignment or changes of issues. Thus, this study argues that we should look out party merger and split because it would be constrain for the long term of Korean politics development.
This study analyzes organizational conditions in which a party could choose merger and split. The formation and change of the Uri Party came from the 'spontaneous' and 'step by step’ defections of incumbents, which was different from the previous ruling parties. Why did they dissolve and which conditions make it possible? Based on these questions, this study sees it as the outcome of two dimensions: organizational characteristics and assessment of party resources. For a party with weak relations to members, the negative prediction on electoral result enhances the probability to choose merger and split. As a case, the Uri Party was organized as notable with high electoral winning probability in the level of 'party in the central office’, which led to the failure to make the momentum of formation of strong dominant coalition. Furthermore, the division of two organizations, 'party on the ground’ and 'party in public office’, and the reduction of central party’s function make the organization of cartel party in the middle of frequent shifts in leadership. In addition, negative electoral prediction worked to negative valuation on efficiencies of party resources. As a result, their alternative was the search for substitutability of available resources, which was defection, split and merger again. The implication of this study is the emphasis on function and representation of party. The evolution of cartel party heightens the probabilities of organizational shifts and makes it a pattern of politics without voter’ realignment or changes of issues. Thus, this study argues that we should look out party merger and split because it would be constrain for the long term of Korean politics development.
