Forest Fires in Greece and Their Economic Impacts on Agriculture
Abstract
Forest fires have increased in the last decades, due to many factors such as climate change, land use change and management. In Greece, wildfires burn cultivated lands and affect significantly the rural economy and society. However, the economic impacts of forest fires on agricultural areas has not been estimated, and this is our aim. After an extended literature review and consultation with the stakeholders, we decided to build a model with many variables. The total cost of fire depends on the cost of prevention and suppression measures, and also direct and indirect costs. Direct costs, as adjusted for the immediate effects of fire, are divided into two categories: direct damages instantaneous and direct losses induced. Direct damages are estimated by a function that calculates the instantaneous damage in permanent crops, seasonal crops, livestock, infrastructure, construction and machinery. Direct losses are estimated by a function that calculates fire-induced costs in permanent crops, seasonal crops, livestock, additional borrowing costs and services costs. For the composition of the time-space model, we will use secondary data, as well as data originated from fieldwork. The literature review showed that the ex post analysis involving detailed consultation with a representative sample of affected farms, provides a more consistent appraisal.
References
[1] Stocks,B.J.,Fosberg,M.A.,Lynham,T.J.,etal (1998).ClimatechangeandforestfirepotentialinRussian and Canadian boreal forests. Climatic Change Vol 38, No. 1, pp.1–13
[2] Flannigan, M.D., Stocks, J.B., Weber, M. (2003). Fire regimes and climatic change in Canadian forests. In: Fire and climate change in temperate ecosystems of the Western Americas. Springer, New York, pp. 97–119.
[3] Brown, J.T., Hall, L.B., Westerling, L.A. (2004). The impact of twenty-first century climate change on wildland fire danger in the Western United States: an application perspective. Climatic Change, Vol. 62, No. 1-3, pp. 365–388
[4] EuropeanCommission(2004).ForestFiresinEurope—ReportNo.4.OfficialPublicationoftheEuropean Commission S.P.I.04.124, pp. 49.
[5] Dimitrakopoulos,A.P.,Vlahou,M.,Anagnostopoulou,C.G.,etal.(2011).Impactofdroughtonwildland fires in Greece: implications of climatic change. Climatic Change, Vol. 109, No. 3-4, pp. 331-347.
[6] Butry,D.T.,Mercer,E.D.,Prestemon,J.P.,etal.(2001).Whatisthepriceofcatastrophicwildfire?Journal of Forestry, Vol. 99, No. 11, pp. 9-17.
[7] Martínez, J.R.M., Machuca, M.H., Díaz, R.Z., et al. (2011). Economic losses to Iberian swine production from forest fires. Forest Policy and Economics Vol. 13, No. 8, pp. 614–621.
[8] Diaz, J. M., (2012). Economic Impacts of Wildfire. Southern Fire Exchange, 498, Fact Sheet 2012-7
[9] Diakakis, M., (2011). A method for flood hazard mapping based on basin morphometry: application in two catchments in Greece. Natural hazards, Vol.56, No.3, pp. 803-814.
[10] González-Cabán, A., (2013). The Economic Dimension of Wildland Fires. Vegetation Fires and Global Change – Challenges for Concerted International Action, Edition: 1, Chapter: 17, Kessel Publishing House, Remagen - Oberwinter, Germany, pp.229-237
[11] FAO,(2017).The impact of disasters on agriculture and food safety.FoodandAgricultureOrganization of the United Nations
[12] Kailidis, D. and Karanikola, P., (2004). Forest Fires 1900 - 2000, Giahoudis Editions, Thessaloniki, Greece.
[13] Vélez, R., (1993). High intensity forest fires in the Mediterranean Basin: natural and socioeconomic causes. Disaster Management-Redhill, Vol. 5, pp. 16–16
[14] Tapia-Silva, F. O., Itzerott, S., Foerster, S., et al. (2011). Estimation of flood losses to agricultural crops using remote sensing. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, Vol. 36, No. 7, pp. 253-265.
[15] Brémond,P.Grelot,F.,&placeAgenais,A.L.(2013).Economicevaluationofflooddamagetoagriculturereview and analysis of existing methods. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 13, No. 10, pp. 2493-2512.
[16] Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), (2014). Handbook for disaster assessment. United Nations, Santiago, Chile.
[17] Fire Service of Greece, (2019). https://www.fireservice.gr/el_GR/stoicheia-symbanton (Accessed 21-32019)
[18] Messner, F., Penning-Rowsell, E., Green, C., et al. (2007). Evaluating flood damages: guidance and recommendations on principles and methods. FLOODsite Project, Report T09-06-01
[19] Rittmaster,R.,Adamowicz,W.L.,Amiro,B.,etal.(2006).Economicanalysisofhealtheffectsfromforest fires. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, Vol. 36, No. 4, pp. 868-877.
[20] Kochi, I., Loomis, J., Champ, P., et al. (2008). Health and economic impact of wildfires: literature review. In III international symposium on fire economics, planning and policy: common problems and approaches. Carolina, Puerto Rico.
[21] Richardson,L.A.,Champ,P.A.,&Loomis,J.B.(2012).Thehiddencostofwildfires:Economic valuation of health effects of wildfire smoke exposure in Southern California. Journal of Forest Economics, Vol. 18, No. 1, pp. 14-35.
[22] Englin, J., Boxall, P. C., Chakraborty, K., et al. (1996). Valuing the impacts of forest fires on backcountry forest recreation. Forest Science, Vol. 42, No. 4, pp. 450-455.
[23] Englin, J., Loomis, J.B., Gonzalez-Caban, A., (2001). The dynamic path of recreational values following a forest fire: a comparative analysis of states in the intermountain west. Canadian Journal of Forest Research Vol 31, pp.1837–1844.
[24] Loomis, J., (2004). Do nearby forest fires cause a reduction in residential property values? Journal of forest economics, Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 149-157
[25] Hesseln, H., Loomis, J. B., González-Cabán, A., et al. (2003). Wildfire effects on hiking and biking demandinNewMexico:atravelcoststudy. Journal of Environmental Management,Vol.69,No.4,pp. 359-368.
[26] Hesseln, H. et al, (2004). Comparing the economic effects of fire on hiking demand in Montana and Colorado. Journal of Forest Economics, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 21-35.
[27] Hesseln, H., Loomis, J. B., and González-Cabán, A. (2004). The effects of fire on recreation demand in Montana. Western Journal of Applied Forestry, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp. 47-53.
[28] Sánchez, J. J. Baerenklau, K., & González-Cabán, A. (2016). Valuing hypothetical wildfire impacts with a Kuhn–Tucker model of recreation demand. Forest Policy and Economics, Vol. 71, pp. 63-70
[29] Stojanovic,D.,nee Voogdt, J. W.,Webb, M., etal. (2016).Lossofhabitat fora secondary cavitynesting bird after wildfire. Forest Ecology and Management, Vol. 360, pp. 235-241.
[30] Durán-Medraño,R.,Varela,E.,Garza-Gil,D.,etal.(2017).Valuationofterrestrialandmarinebiodiversity losses caused by forest wildfires.JournalofBehavioralandExperimentalEconomics,Vol.71,pp.88-95.
[31] Thompson,H.N.,(1996).Modificationofecosystembyungulates.TheJournalofWildlifeManagement, Vol. 60, No. 4, pp. 695–713.
[32] Zamora,R.,Molina-Martínez,J.R.,Herrera,M.A.,etal.(2010).Amodelforwildfirepreventionplanning in game resources. Ecological Modelling, Vol. 221, No. 1, pp. 19-26.
[33] Zwolak, R., (2009). A meta-analysis of the effects of wildfire, clearcutting, and partial harvest on the abundance of North American small mammals. Forest Ecology and Management, Vol. 258, No.5, pp. 539-545.
[34] Papaspyropoulos, K., Sokos, C., and Birtsas, P. (2014). The impacts of a wildfire on hunting demand: A case study of a Mediterranean ecosystem. iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry. DOI: 10.3832/ifor0799-007
[35] Shultz, S. and Fridgen, P., (2002). Floodplains and housing values: implications for flood mitigation projects. Journal of American Water Resources Association, Vol. 37, No. 3, pp. 595–603
[36] Stetler, K. M. Venn, T. J., and Calkin, D. E. (2010). The effects of wildfire and environmental amenities on property values in northwest Montana, USA. Ecological Economics, Vol. 69, No. 11, pp. 2233-2243
[37] Dutta, D., Herath, S., and Musiake, K. (2003). A mathematical model for flood loss estimation. Journal of hydrology, Vol. 277, No. 1-2, pp. 24-49
[38] Pivot,J.M.,andMartin,P.,(2002).Farmsadaptationtochangesinfloodrisk:amanagementapproach, Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 267, No 1-2, pp. 12-25
[39] FAO,(2015).Theimpactofdisastersonagricultureandfoodsafety.FoodandAgricultureOrganization of the United Nations
[40] Meyer, V. and Messner, F., (2005). National Flood Damage Evaluation Methods, A Review of Applied Methods in England, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic and Germany, UFZ-Discussion Papers 21.
[41] Fuhrer, J., Beniston, M., Fischlin, A. et al, (2006). Climate risks and their impact on agriculture and forests in Switzerland. In: Climate variability, predictability and climate risks. Springer, Dordrecht, pp. 79-102.
[42] Förster, S., Kuhlmann, B., Lindenschmidt, K. E., et al, (2008). Assessing flood risk for a rural detention area. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, Vol. 8, No. 2, pp. 311-322.
[43] Posthumus, H., Morris, J., Hess, T. M., et al. (2009). Impacts of the summer 2007 floods on agriculture in England, Journal of Flood Risk Management, Vol 2, No. 3, pp. 182-189
[44] Merz, B., Kreibich, H., Schwarze, R., et al. (2010). Assessment of economic flood damage. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 10, No. 8, pp. 1697-1724
[45] Logar,I.andvandenBerghJ.C.J.M.,(2011).MethodsforAssessmentoftheCostsofDroughts.Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain, CONHAZ Rep. WP05.
[46] Morris,J.,(2012).Reviewoffactorsaffectingthedamagecostsoffloodingonagriculturallandinsupport for estimates for the 2012 floods. Report to The Environment Agency, Economics and Social Science (Evidence). December 17th 2012
[47] Meyer, V., Becker, N., Markantonis, V., et al. (2013). Assessing the costs of natural hazards-state of the art and knowledge gaps. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 13, No. 5, pp. 1351-1373
[48] Elliott, J., Twinning, S., Phillips, K., et al, (2014). The Economic Impact of 2014 Winter Floods on Agriculture in England. Prepared for Defra by ADAS UK Ltd, Wolverhampton, UK
[49] Morris, J. and Brewin P., (2014). The impact of seasonal flooding on agriculture: the spring 2012 floods in Somerset, England. Journal of Flood Risk Management, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 128-140
[50] Chau, V. N., Cassells, S., & Holland, J. (2015). Economic impact upon agricultural production from extreme flood events in Quang Nam, central Vietnam, Natural Hazards, Vol 75, No. 2, pp. 1747-1765
[51] DEFRA,(2007).AgricultureintheUK2007.London.https://statistics.defra.gov.uk/esg/publications/auk/ 2007/default.asp (accessed on 3 April 2009)
[52] Glauber,A.J.andGunawan,I.,(2016).TheCostofFire:AnEconomicAnalysisofIndonesia’s2015Fire Crisis.TheWorldBankhttp://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/643781465442350600/Indonesia-forest-firenotes.pdf (Accessed 14-02-2018)
[53] Jonkman,S.N.,(2007).Lossoflifeestimationinfloodriskassessment;theoryandapplications.Thesis. https://library.wur.nl/ebooks/hydrotheek/1875249.pdf
[54] Smith K, Ward R (1998), Floods. Physical Processes and Human Impacts, Chichester
[55] Parker, Dennis J., Colin H. Green, and Paul M. Thompson. Urban Flood Protection Benetits: a Project Appraisal Guide. Gower technical press, 1987
[56] Penning-Rowsell, E. C., Johnson, C., Tunstall, S. M., et al. (2003). The Benefits of Flood and Coastal Defence: Techniques and Data for 2003, Middlesex University, London, UK.
[57] Hall,J.R.,(2014).ThetotalcostoffireintheUnitedStates.Report.National Fire Protection Association Fire Analysis and Research, Quincy, Massachusetts, USA
[58] Nix, J., (2006). Farm management pocketbook, 37th edition, Wye: Imperial College London.