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Jeopolitik Risklerin Makroekonomik Göstergeler Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 21 Sayı: 4, 1989 - 2003, 19.10.2022

Fatih Tuna Hande Çalışkan

https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.1151714
Cited By: 1

Öz

Çalışmanın amacı jeopolitik risklerin Türkiye’deki makroekonomik değişkenler üzerindeki etkisini 1994 Ocak ile 2022 Nisan dönemi için aylık veriler kullanarak incelemektir. Jeopolitik risk göstergesi olarak Caldara ve Iacoviello (2022) tarafından hesaplanan küresel endeks kullanılmıştır. Makroekonomik göstergeler olarak sanayi üretim endeksi, enflasyon oranı ve reel efektif döviz kuru kullanılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler Breitung ve Candelon (2009) tarafından geliştirilen frekans alanında nedensellik testi ile araştırmıştır. Analiz sonuçları, enflasyon oranı ve reel efektif döviz kurunun orta ve uzun dönemde jeopolitik risklerden etkilendiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Jeopolitik risk Enflasyon Döviz kuru Nedensellik

Kaynakça

  • Adedoyin, F. F., Afolabi, J. O., Yalçiner, K., & Bekun, F. V. (2022). The export‐led growth in Malaysia: Does economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks matter?. Journal of Public Affairs, 22(1), 2361.
  • Antonakakis, N., Gupta, R., Kollias, C., & Papadamou, S. (2017). Geopolitical risks and the oil-stock nexus over 1899–2016. Finance Research Letters, 23, 165-173.
  • Aysan, A. F., Demir, E., Gozgor, G., & Lau, C. K. M. (2019). Effects of the geopolitical risks on Bitcoin returns and volatility. Research in International Business and Finance, 47, 511-518.
  • Balcilar, M., Bonato, M., Demirer, R., & Gupta, R. (2018). Geopolitical risks and stock market dynamics of the BRICS. Economic Systems, 42(2), 295-306.
  • Breitung, J., & Candelon, B. (2006). Testing for short and long-run causality: A frequency domain approach. Journal of Econometrics, 132(2), 363–378.
  • Buzdağlı, Ö., & Özdemir, D. (2021). Jeopolitik Risk Endeksinin Askeri Harcamalar Üzerindeki Etkisi. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Vizyoner Dergisi, 12(29), 188-203.
  • Caldara, D., Conlisk, S., Iacoviello, M., & Penn, M. (2022). Do Geopolitical Risks Raise or Lower Inflation?. https://www.matteoiacoviello.com/research_files/GPR_INFL ATION_PAPER.pdf
  • Çalışkan, H., Kantarcı, T. & Çevik, E. İ. (2021). Petrol Fiyatları ve Enflasyon Arasında Frekans Alanında Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi: BRICS-T Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 20 (3), 1090-1111.
  • Cheng, C. H. J., & Chiu, C. W. J. (2018). How important are global geopolitical risks to emerging countries?. International Economics, 156, 305-325.
  • Demir, E., Díez-Esteban, J. M., & García-Gómez, C. D. (2019). The impact of geopolitical risks on cash holdings of hospitality companies: Evidence from emerging countries. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 39, 166-174.
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–431.
  • Doğan, E., & Doğan, B. Ö. (2021). Jeopolitik riskin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi: Kırılgan Beşli ülkelerinden ampirik kanıtlar. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 14(3), 978-990.
  • Geweke, J. (1982). Measurement of linear dependence and feedback between multiple time series. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 77(378), 304–324.
  • Hemrit, W. (2022). Does insurance demand react to economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk? Evidence from Saudi Arabia. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance-Issues and Practice, 47(2), 460-492.
  • Hosoya, Y. (2001). Elimination of third-series effect and defining partial measures of causality. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 22(5), 537–554.
  • Huang, J., Li, Y., Suleman, M. T., & Zhang, H. (2021). Effects of geopolitical risks on gold market return dynamics: Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach. Defence and Peace Economics, 1-15.
  • Iyke, B. N., Phan, D. H. B., & Narayan, P. K. (2022). Exchange rate return predictability in times of geopolitical risk. International Review of Financial Analysis, 81, 102099.
  • Mansour-Ichrakieh, L., & Zeaiter, H. (2019). The role of geopolitical risks on the Turkish economy opportunity or threat. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 50, 101000.
  • Nikolaos A. Kyriazis & Emmanouil-M. L. Economou (2022) The impacts of geopolitical uncertainty on Turkish Lira during the Erdoğan administration. Defence and Peace Economics, 33:6, 731-750, DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1904200
  • Özkan, O. (2020). Jeopolitik risklerin döviz piyasaları üzerindeki etkileri: Parametrik olmayan kantil nedensellik testi ile BRICS-T ülkeleri üzerine ampirik bir çalışma. Muhasebe Bilim Dünyası Dergisi, 22(4), 611-628.
  • Phan, D. H. B., Tran, V. T., & Iyke, B. N. (2022). Geopolitical risk and bank stability. Finance Research Letters, 46, 102453.
  • Phillips, P. C. B. & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in time series regression. Biometrika. 75 (2): 335–346.
  • Saâdaoui, F., Jabeur, S. B., & Goodell, J. W. (2022). Causality of geopolitical risk on food prices: Considering the Russo–Ukrainian conflict. Finance Research Letters, 49, 103103.
  • Şahin, E. E. & Arslan, H. (2021). Jeopolitik risklerin parametrik olmayan bir yöntem kullanarak borsa getirileri ve döviz kurları üzerindeki etkilerinin bir analizi. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, (89), 237-250.
  • Su, C. W., Khan, K., Umar, M., & Zhang, W. (2021). Does renewable energy redefine geopolitical risks?. Energy Policy, 158, 112566.
  • Sweidan, O. D., & Elbargathi, K. (2022). The effect of oil rent on economic development in Saudi Arabia: Comparing the role of globalization and the international geopolitical risk. Resources Policy, 75, 102469.
  • Toda, H.Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector auto regressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.
  • Duan, W., Khurshid, A., Rauf, A., Khan, K., & Calin, A. C. (2021). How geopolitical risk drives exchange rate and oil prices? A wavelet-based analysis. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 16(9), 861-877.
  • Yalçınkaya, Ö. (2019). Küresel ekonomik, politik ve jeopolitik belirsizliklerin makroekonomik etkileri: Türkiye ekonomisi üzerine SVAR analizi (1992:Q1-2018Q:2) . Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 14 (53), 56-73.
  • Zivot, E., & Donald W. K. Andrews. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251–270.
  • Cresswell, M. (2016). Logics and languages. London, Routledge.
  • Simon Dalby (2003) Calling 911: geopolitics, security and America's new war, Geopolitics, 8 (3), 61-86.

The Impact of Geopolitics Risks on Macroeconomic Indicators: Evidence from Turkey

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 21 Sayı: 4, 1989 - 2003, 19.10.2022

Fatih Tuna Hande Çalışkan

https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.1151714
Cited By: 1

Öz

The study aims to examine the effect of geopolitical risks on macroeconomic variables in Turkey using monthly data for the period from 1994 January to 2022 April. The global index calculated by Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) was used as an indicator of geopolitical risk. The industrial production index, inflation rate and real effective exchange rate were used as macroeconomic indicators. The relationships between the variables were researched with the frequency domain causality test developed by Breitung and Candelon (2009). The results of the analysis show that the inflation rate and the real effective exchange rate are affected by geopolitical risks in the medium and long term.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Geopolitical risk Inflation Exchange rate Causality

Kaynakça

  • Adedoyin, F. F., Afolabi, J. O., Yalçiner, K., & Bekun, F. V. (2022). The export‐led growth in Malaysia: Does economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks matter?. Journal of Public Affairs, 22(1), 2361.
  • Antonakakis, N., Gupta, R., Kollias, C., & Papadamou, S. (2017). Geopolitical risks and the oil-stock nexus over 1899–2016. Finance Research Letters, 23, 165-173.
  • Aysan, A. F., Demir, E., Gozgor, G., & Lau, C. K. M. (2019). Effects of the geopolitical risks on Bitcoin returns and volatility. Research in International Business and Finance, 47, 511-518.
  • Balcilar, M., Bonato, M., Demirer, R., & Gupta, R. (2018). Geopolitical risks and stock market dynamics of the BRICS. Economic Systems, 42(2), 295-306.
  • Breitung, J., & Candelon, B. (2006). Testing for short and long-run causality: A frequency domain approach. Journal of Econometrics, 132(2), 363–378.
  • Buzdağlı, Ö., & Özdemir, D. (2021). Jeopolitik Risk Endeksinin Askeri Harcamalar Üzerindeki Etkisi. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Vizyoner Dergisi, 12(29), 188-203.
  • Caldara, D., Conlisk, S., Iacoviello, M., & Penn, M. (2022). Do Geopolitical Risks Raise or Lower Inflation?. https://www.matteoiacoviello.com/research_files/GPR_INFL ATION_PAPER.pdf
  • Çalışkan, H., Kantarcı, T. & Çevik, E. İ. (2021). Petrol Fiyatları ve Enflasyon Arasında Frekans Alanında Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi: BRICS-T Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 20 (3), 1090-1111.
  • Cheng, C. H. J., & Chiu, C. W. J. (2018). How important are global geopolitical risks to emerging countries?. International Economics, 156, 305-325.
  • Demir, E., Díez-Esteban, J. M., & García-Gómez, C. D. (2019). The impact of geopolitical risks on cash holdings of hospitality companies: Evidence from emerging countries. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 39, 166-174.
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–431.
  • Doğan, E., & Doğan, B. Ö. (2021). Jeopolitik riskin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi: Kırılgan Beşli ülkelerinden ampirik kanıtlar. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 14(3), 978-990.
  • Geweke, J. (1982). Measurement of linear dependence and feedback between multiple time series. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 77(378), 304–324.
  • Hemrit, W. (2022). Does insurance demand react to economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk? Evidence from Saudi Arabia. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance-Issues and Practice, 47(2), 460-492.
  • Hosoya, Y. (2001). Elimination of third-series effect and defining partial measures of causality. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 22(5), 537–554.
  • Huang, J., Li, Y., Suleman, M. T., & Zhang, H. (2021). Effects of geopolitical risks on gold market return dynamics: Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach. Defence and Peace Economics, 1-15.
  • Iyke, B. N., Phan, D. H. B., & Narayan, P. K. (2022). Exchange rate return predictability in times of geopolitical risk. International Review of Financial Analysis, 81, 102099.
  • Mansour-Ichrakieh, L., & Zeaiter, H. (2019). The role of geopolitical risks on the Turkish economy opportunity or threat. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 50, 101000.
  • Nikolaos A. Kyriazis & Emmanouil-M. L. Economou (2022) The impacts of geopolitical uncertainty on Turkish Lira during the Erdoğan administration. Defence and Peace Economics, 33:6, 731-750, DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2021.1904200
  • Özkan, O. (2020). Jeopolitik risklerin döviz piyasaları üzerindeki etkileri: Parametrik olmayan kantil nedensellik testi ile BRICS-T ülkeleri üzerine ampirik bir çalışma. Muhasebe Bilim Dünyası Dergisi, 22(4), 611-628.
  • Phan, D. H. B., Tran, V. T., & Iyke, B. N. (2022). Geopolitical risk and bank stability. Finance Research Letters, 46, 102453.
  • Phillips, P. C. B. & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in time series regression. Biometrika. 75 (2): 335–346.
  • Saâdaoui, F., Jabeur, S. B., & Goodell, J. W. (2022). Causality of geopolitical risk on food prices: Considering the Russo–Ukrainian conflict. Finance Research Letters, 49, 103103.
  • Şahin, E. E. & Arslan, H. (2021). Jeopolitik risklerin parametrik olmayan bir yöntem kullanarak borsa getirileri ve döviz kurları üzerindeki etkilerinin bir analizi. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, (89), 237-250.
  • Su, C. W., Khan, K., Umar, M., & Zhang, W. (2021). Does renewable energy redefine geopolitical risks?. Energy Policy, 158, 112566.
  • Sweidan, O. D., & Elbargathi, K. (2022). The effect of oil rent on economic development in Saudi Arabia: Comparing the role of globalization and the international geopolitical risk. Resources Policy, 75, 102469.
  • Toda, H.Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector auto regressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.
  • Duan, W., Khurshid, A., Rauf, A., Khan, K., & Calin, A. C. (2021). How geopolitical risk drives exchange rate and oil prices? A wavelet-based analysis. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 16(9), 861-877.
  • Yalçınkaya, Ö. (2019). Küresel ekonomik, politik ve jeopolitik belirsizliklerin makroekonomik etkileri: Türkiye ekonomisi üzerine SVAR analizi (1992:Q1-2018Q:2) . Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 14 (53), 56-73.
  • Zivot, E., & Donald W. K. Andrews. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251–270.
  • Cresswell, M. (2016). Logics and languages. London, Routledge.
  • Simon Dalby (2003) Calling 911: geopolitics, security and America's new war, Geopolitics, 8 (3), 61-86.
Toplam 32 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Siyaset Bilimi
Bölüm İktisat
Yazarlar

Fatih Tuna 0000-0001-9549-9972

Hande Çalışkan

Yayımlanma Tarihi 19 Ekim 2022
Gönderilme Tarihi 31 Temmuz 2022
Kabul Tarihi 4 Ekim 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 21 Sayı: 4

Kaynak Göster

APA Tuna, F., & Çalışkan, H. (2022). Jeopolitik Risklerin Makroekonomik Göstergeler Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 21(4), 1989-2003. https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.1151714

Cited By

Ulusal Riskler, Jeopolitik Riskler ve Küresel Belirsizliklerin Türk Lirasının Değeri Üzerindeki Etkileri
Alanya Akademik Bakış
https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.1038217