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Quantifying the utility of single nucleotide polymorphisms to guide colorectal cancer screening

    Mark A Jenkins

    *Author for correspondence:

    E-mail Address: m.jenkins@unimelb.edu.au

    Centre for Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville Victoria, VIC 3010, Australia

    ,
    Enes Makalic

    Centre for Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville Victoria, VIC 3010, Australia

    ,
    James G Dowty

    Centre for Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville Victoria, VIC 3010, Australia

    ,
    Daniel F Schmidt

    Centre for Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville Victoria, VIC 3010, Australia

    ,
    Gillian S Dite

    Centre for Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville Victoria, VIC 3010, Australia

    ,
    Robert J MacInnis

    Centre for Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville Victoria, VIC 3010, Australia

    Cancer Epidemiology Centre, Cancer Council Victoria, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia

    ,
    Driss Ait Ouakrim

    Centre for Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville Victoria, VIC 3010, Australia

    ,
    Mark Clendenning

    Colorectal Oncogenomics Group, Genetic Epidemiology Laboratory, Department of Pathology, School of Medicine, The University of Melbourne, Parkville Victoria, VIC 3010, Australia

    ,
    Louisa B Flander

    Centre for Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville Victoria, VIC 3010, Australia

    ,
    Oliver K Stanesby

    Centre for Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville Victoria, VIC 3010, Australia

    ,
    John L Hopper

    Centre for Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville Victoria, VIC 3010, Australia

    ,
    Aung K Win

    Centre for Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville Victoria, VIC 3010, Australia

    &
    Daniel D Buchanan

    Centre for Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population & Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville Victoria, VIC 3010, Australia

    Colorectal Oncogenomics Group, Genetic Epidemiology Laboratory, Department of Pathology, School of Medicine, The University of Melbourne, Parkville Victoria, VIC 3010, Australia

    Published Online:https://doi.org/10.2217/fon.15.303

    Aim: To determine whether single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) can be used to identify people who should be screened for colorectal cancer. Methods: We simulated one million people with and without colorectal cancer based on published SNP allele frequencies and strengths of colorectal cancer association. We estimated 5-year risks of colorectal cancer by number of risk alleles. Results: We identified 45 SNPs with an average 1.14-fold increase colorectal cancer risk per allele (range: 1.05–1.53). The colorectal cancer risk for people in the highest quintile of risk alleles was 1.81-times that for the average person. Conclusion: We have quantified the extent to which known susceptibility SNPs can stratify the population into clinically useful colorectal cancer risk categories.

    Papers of special note have been highlighted as: • of interest

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