¹ Lipset, Seymour M., “Some Social Requisites of Democracy,” this Review, 53 (1959), 69–105 Google Scholar; and Lerner, Daniel, “Communications Systems and Social Systems: A Statistical Exploration in History and Policy,” Behavioral Science, 2 (1957), 266–275 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

² Lerner, Daniel, The Passing of the Traditional Society (Glencoe: The Free Press, 1958)Google Scholar. The essence of Lerner's theory can be found in the following quotation:

“The secular evolution of a participant society appears to involve a regular sequence of three phases. Urbanization comes first, for cities alone have developed the complex of skills and resources which characterize the modern industrial economy. Within this urban matrix develop both of the attributes which distinguish the next two phases—literacy and media growth. There is a close reciprocal relationship between these, for the literate develop the media which in turn spread literacy. But, literacy performs the key function in the second phase. The capacity to read, at first acquired by relatively few people, equips them to perform the varied tasks required in the modernizing society. Not until the third phase, when the elaborate technology of industrial development is fairly well advanced, does a society begin to produce newspapers, radio networks, and motion pictures on a massive scale. This, in turn, accelerates the spread of literacy. Out of this interaction develop those institutions of participation (e.g. voting) which we find in all advanced modern societies.” p. 60.

³ McCrone, Donald J. and Cnudde, Charles F., “Toward A Communications Theory of Democratic Political Development: A Causal Model,” this Review, 61 (1967), 72–79 Google Scholar.

⁴ Lipset, Seymour M., Political Man (New York: Doubleday, 1960), p. 27 Google Scholar.

⁵ Ibid., see Chapter II “Economic Development and Democracy.”

⁶ Almond, Gabriel and Verba, Sidney, The Civic Culture: Political Attitudes and Democracy in Five Nations (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1963)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁷ McClelland, David C., The Achieving Society (Princeton: D. Van Nostrand Co., 1961)CrossRefGoogle Scholar. McClelland makes no mention of political development or democracy in his work; however, if economic growth is related to political development, then the possibility clearly exists of a link between the achievement motive and political development.

⁸ The distinction between different approaches in the theory of development, and the relative contributions thereof, was suggested by Harvey Pasis in oral discussion.

⁹ For example, Almond and Verba point out the importance of education and industrialization in creating a democratic culture. Almond and Verba, op. cit., p. 373.

¹⁰ Lipset's indicators for communication (telephones, radios and newspapers per 1,000 persons) were subsumed under his category of “wealth.”

¹¹ Cutright, Phillips, “National Political Development,” in Polsby, Nelson et al. (eds.), Politics and Social Life (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1963), 569–582 Google Scholar. According to Cutright's scale nations receive two points per year that a legislature exists in which the lower or only house contained representatives of two or more political parties, with the minority party or parties having at least 30 per cent of all seats. Nations receive one point if the above conditions are met except the 30 per cent rule, and no points if the above conditions are not met. Additionally, one point per nation is awarded for each year that a chief executive is in office by virtue of a direct vote in an open election in which he faced competition; or in office by being chosen by a political party in a two or more party system such as would gain two points on the legislative point assignment scheme. No points are assigned for years in which a chief executive existed by virtue of any other selection process. Cutright's scaling period covered 22 years (1940–1961), and it was possible for a nation to accumulate anywhere from 0 to 66 points.

¹² T scoring is a procedure for deriving standardized measures of variables, so that scores on such disparate items as per cent of population in cities over 50,000, number of radios per 1,000 population, and per cent of population literate can be directly compared. See Edwards, Allen L., Statistical Methods, 2nd Ed. (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1967)Google ScholarPubMed, Chapter 4.

¹³ Neubauer, Deane E., “Some Conditions of Democracy,” this Review, 61 (1967), 1002–1009 Google Scholar.

¹⁴ Neubauer's concern for these features of democracy is derived from the definitions of democracy put forward by Downs and Dahl. See Downs, Anthony, An Economic Theory of Democracy (New York: Harper and Row, 1957), pp. 23–24 Google Scholar; and Dahl, Robert A., A Preface to Democratic Theory (Chicago Press, 1956), p. 84 Google Scholar.

¹⁵ Canada, Great Britain and the United States received the top score of 66 on Cutright's index, while France received 59 points. On Neubauer's index Great Britain and France received the highest rankings with 236.3 and 231.4 points each. Canada and the United States were 15th and 16th with 196.8 and 190.9 points respectively.

¹⁶ Cutright's method was used rather than Neubauer's because it seemed most consistent with the definition of democracy provided here. Furthermore Cutright's index appeared more appropriate for differentiating between conditions of low and high democratic development. Finally Cutright's 30 per cent rule does in fact measure competition, which was one of the two major criteria of democratic performance in Neubauer's analysis.

¹⁷ Electoral participation was a feature of Neubauer's index, and has been incorporated in Cutright's later work. See Cutright's communication to the Editor, this Review, 62 (1968), 578–580. See also, Cutright, Phillips and Wiley, James A. “Modernization and Political Representation: 1927–1966,” Studies in Comparative International Development (Monograph Series) 5 (1969–1970)Google Scholar.

¹⁸ This information is presented in tabular form in Lane, Robert E., Political Life (New York: The Free Press, 1959), p. 19 Google Scholar

¹⁹ Ibid., pp. 16–22.

²⁰ Urbanization data were taken from U.S. Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1957 (Washington: Government Printing Office, 1960)Google Scholar.

²¹ Literacy rates and enrollment figures since 1870 were taken from Ibid. Data on enrollments for the period 1840–1860 were taken from U.S. Bureau of the Census, Report on Education in the United States, Eleventh Census, 1890 Google ScholarPubMed.

²² Data on communications were taken from Historical Statistics of the United States.

²³ With regard to this close interrelationship, Schnore finds a unidimensional structure emerging from a factor analysis performed on 12 national measures of modernization. Among the variables loading heavily on the single factor were newspaper circulation (.94), literacy (.89) and urbanization (.86). See Schnore, Leo F., “The Statistical Measurement of Urbanization and Economic Development,” Land Economics, 37 (1961), 229–245 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

²⁴ For further discussion of this method, as well as limiting assumptions, see Pelz, D. and Andrews, F., “Causal Priorities in Panel Study Data,” American Sociological Review, 29 (1964), 836–848 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

One difficulty with time lag correlation analysis suggested by these authors occurs when variables are highly autocorrelated. By their argument, if lagged self-correlations approach unity, then all lagged inter-correlations approach the same value, thus preventing any causal inference. In this study, autocorrelation was assessed over the two time periods used, and the following coefficients were obtained: DD .698, CC .832, EE .988, UU .524. For at least two variables, autocorrelation was not extreme. One would expect the high autocorrelation for education to restrict analysis on this variable, although this obviously did not prevent the predicted change from occurring in the relationship between education and political development (see Table 6).

²⁵ It should be noted that the variation in the U.S. data may be accounted for by explicit qualifications in the Lerner theory. For example, Lerner suggested that the degree of urbanization affected the relationship between urbanization, literacy rates and media growth. Lerner, op. cit., p. 63.

²⁶ For a discussion of the limitations of the causal modeling methods applied by McCrone and Cnudde, see Forbes, Hugh Donald and Tufte, Edward R., “A Note of Caution in Causal Modelling,” this Review, 62 (1968), 1258–1264 Google Scholar.