Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-25wd4 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-29T15:12:13.569Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

What Moves Public Opinion?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Benjamin I. Page ,
Robert Y. Shapiro  and
Glenn R. Dempsey
Benjamin I. Page
Affiliation:
University of Texas, Austin and NORC
Robert Y. Shapiro
Affiliation:
Columbia University and NORC
Glenn R. Dempsey
Affiliation:
University of Chicago and NORC
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Democratic theory must pay attention to what influences public opinion. In this study the content of network television news is shown to account for a high proportion of aggregate changes (from one survey to another) in U.S. citizens' policy preferences. Different news sources have different effects. News commentators (perhaps reflecting elite or national consensus or media biases) have a very strong positive impact, as do experts. Popular presidents tend to have positive effects, while unpopular presidents do not. In contrast, special interest groups tend to have a negative impact.

Type
Articles
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 81 , Issue 1 , March 1987 , pp. 23 - 43
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1987

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Bennett, W. Lance. 1983. News: The Politics of Illusion. New York: Longman.Google Scholar
Braestrup, Peter. 1977. Big Story. 2 vols. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.Google Scholar
Burstein, Paul. 1979. Public Opinion, Demonstrations, and the Passage of Anti-discrimination Legislation. Public Opinion Quarterly 43:157–72.Google Scholar
Burstein, Paul, and Freudenberg, William. 1978. Changing Public Policy: The Impact of Public Opinion, Antiwar Demonstrations, and War Costs on Senate Voting on Vietnam War Motions. American Journal of Sociology 84:99–122.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chaffee, Steven H. 1975. Political Communication: Enduring Issues for Research. Beverly Hills: Sage.Google Scholar
Cook, Fay Lomax, Tyler, Tom R., Goetz, Edward G., Gordon, Margaret T., Protess, David, Leff, Donna R., and Molotch, Harvey L. 1983. Media and Agenda Setting: Effects on the Public, Interest Group Leaders, Policy Makers, and Policy. Public Opinion Quarterly 47:16–35.Google Scholar
Davis, James A. 1975. Communism, Conformity, Cohorts, and Categories: American Tolerance in 1954 and 1972–73. American Journal of Sociology 81:491–513.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper.Google Scholar
Edelman, Murray. 1964. The Symbolic Uses of Politics. Urbana: University of Illinois Press.Google Scholar
Epstein, Edward J. 1973. News from Nowhere. New York: Random House.Google Scholar
Erbring, Lutz. 1975. The Impact of Political Events on Mass Publics: Public Opinion Dynamics and an Approach to Dynamic Analysis. Ph.D. diss., University of Michigan.Google Scholar
Erbring, Lutz, Goldenberg, Edie N., and Miller, Arthur H. 1980. Front Page News and Real World Cues: A New Look at Agenda-Setting by the Media. American Journal of Political Science 24:16–49.Google Scholar
Erikson, Robert S. 1976. The Relationship Between Public Opinion and State Policy: A New Look at Some Forgotten Data. American Journal of Political Science 20:25–36.Google Scholar
Fan, David P. 1984. Mathematical Models for the Impact of Information on Society. Political Methodology 10:479–94.Google Scholar
Fan, David P. 1985a. Ideodynamics: The Kinetics of the Evolution of Ideas. Journal of Mathematical Sociology 11:1–24.Google Scholar
Fan, David P. 1985b. Lebanon 1983–1984: Influence of the Media on Public Opinion. University of Minnesota. Photocopy.Google Scholar
Fan, David P. 1985c. Defense Spending 1977–1984: Influence of the Media on Public Opinion. University of Minnesota. Mimeo.Google Scholar
Freeman, Howard E., Weeks, H. Ashley, and Wertheimer, Walter J. 1955. News Commentator Effect: A Study in Knowledge and Opinion Change. Public Opinion Quarterly 19:209–15.Google Scholar
Funkhouser, G. Ray. 1973. The Issues of the Sixties: An Exploratory Study in the Dynamics of Public Opinion. Public Opinion Quarterly 37:63–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gans, Herbert J. 1980. Deciding What's News. New York: Vintage.Google Scholar
Graber, Doris A. 1984. Mass Media and American Politics. 2d ed. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly.Google Scholar
Hallin, Daniel C. 1984. The Media, the War in Vietnam, and Political Support: A Critique of the Thesis of an Oppositional Media. Journal of Politics 46:2–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Halloran, Richard, and Gelb, Leslie. 3 Mar. 1983. CIA Analysts Now Said to Find U.S. Overstated Soviet Arms Rise. New York Times.Google Scholar
Hovland, Carl I., and Weiss, Walter. 1951–1952. The Influence of Source Credibility on Communication Effectiveness. Public Opinion Quarterly 16:635–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iyengar, Shanto, Peters, Mark D., and Kinder, Donald R. 1982. Experimental Demonstrations of the “Not-So-Minimal” Consequences of Television News Programs. American Political Science Review 76:848–58.Google Scholar
Jaccard, James. 1981. Toward Theories of Persuasion and Belief Change. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 40:260–69.Google Scholar
Katz, Elihu, and Lazarsfeld, Paul F. 1965. Personal Influence: The Part Played by People in the Flow of Communications. Glencoe, IL: Free Press.Google Scholar
Klapper, Joseph T. 1960. The Effects of Mass Communication. Glencoe, IL: Free Press.Google Scholar
Kraus, Sidney, and Davis, Dennis. 1976. The Effects of Mass Communication on Political Behavior. University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press.Google Scholar
Lippmann, Walter. 1922. Public Opinion. New York: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Lipset, Seymour Martin, and Schneider, William. 1983. The Confidence Gap: Business, Labor, and Government in the Public Mind. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
McClosky, Herbert, and Zaller, John. 1984. The American Ethos: Public Attitudes toward Capitalism and Democracy. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
McCombs, Maxwell E., and Shaw, Donald L. 1972. The Agenda-Setting Function of the Mass Media. Public Opinion Quarterly 36:176–87.Google Scholar
McCubbins, Mathew D., and Page, Benjamin I. 1984. Rational Public Opinion and Its Measurement. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago.Google Scholar
McGuire, William J. 1985. The Myth of Mass Media Effectiveness: Savagings and Salvagings. In Public Communication and Behavior, ed. Comstock, George.Google Scholar
MacKuen, Michael B. 1981. Social Communications and Mass Policy Agenda. In More than News: Media Power in Public Affairs, by MacKuen, Michael B. and Coombs, Steven L.Beverly Hills: Sage.Google Scholar
MacKuen, Michael B. 1983. Political Drama, Economic Conditions, and the Dynamics of Presidential Popularity. American Journal of Political Science 27:165–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
MacKuen, Michael B. 1984. Exposure to Information, Belief Integration, and Individual Responsiveness to Agenda Change. American Political Science Review 78:372–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miliband, Ralph. 1969. The State in Capitalist Society. London: Quartet.Google Scholar
Monroe, Alan D. 1979. Consistency Between Public Preferences and National Policy Decisions. American Politics Quarterly 7:3–19.Google Scholar
Noelle-Neumann, Elisabeth. 1973. Return to the Concept of Powerful Mass Media. In Studies in Broadcasting, ed. Eguchi, H. and Sata, K., 67–112. Tokyo: The Nippon Hoso Kyokai.Google Scholar
Noelle-Neumann, Elisabeth. 1980. Mass Media and Social Change in Developed Societies. In Mass Communication Review Yearbook. Vol. 1, ed. Wilhoit, G. Cleveland and de Bock, Harold. Beverly Hills: Sage.Google Scholar
Noelle-Neumann, Elisabeth. 1984. The Spiral of Silence. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Page, Benjamin I., and Petracca, Mark P. 1983. The American Presidency. New York: McGraw Hill.Google Scholar
Page, Benjamin I., and Shapiro, Robert Y. 1982. Changes in Americans' Policy Preferences, 1935–1979. Public Opinion Quarterly 46:24–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Page, Benjamin I., and Shapiro, Robert Y. 1983a. Effects of Public Opinion on Policy. American Political Science Review 77:175–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Page, Benjamin I., and Shapiro, Robert Y. 1983b. The Mass Media and Changes in Americans' Policy Preferences: A Preliminary Analysis. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago.Google Scholar
Page, Benjamin I., and Shapiro, Robert Y. 1984. Presidents as Opinion Leaders: Some New Evidence. Policy Studies Journal 12:649–61.Google Scholar
Page, Benjamin I., Shapiro, Robert Y., and Dempsey, Glenn R. 1984. Television News and Changes in Americans' Policy Preferences. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago.Google Scholar
Page, Benjamin I., Shapiro, Robert Y., and Dempsey, Glenn R. 1985a. The Mass Media Do Affect Policy Preferences. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, McAfee, NJ.Google Scholar
Page, Benjamin I., Shapiro, Robert Y., and Dempsey, Glenn R. 1985b. What Moves Public Opinion. Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, New Orleans.Google Scholar
Robinson, Michael J. 1976. Public Affairs Television and the Growth of Political Malaise: The Case of “The Selling of the Pentagon.” American Political Science Review 70:409–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roshco, Bernard. 1975. Newsmaking. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Rothman, Stanley. 1979. The Mass Media in Post-Industrial Society. In The Third Century: America as a Post-Industrial Society, ed. Lipset, Seymour Martin, 346–88. Stanford: Hoover Institution.Google Scholar
Saloma, John S. III. 1984. Ominous Politics: The New Conservative Labyrinth. New York: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux.Google Scholar
Sanders, Jerry W. 1983. Peddlers of Crisis: The Committee on the Present Danger and the Politics of Containment. Boston: South End.Google Scholar
Schattschneider, E. E. 1960. The Semisovereign People. New York: Holt.Google Scholar
Shapiro, Robert Y. 1982. The Dynamics of Public Opinion and Public Policy. Ph.D. diss., University of Chicago.Google Scholar
Wagner, Joseph. 1983. Media Do Make a Difference: The Differential Impact of the Mass Media in the 1976 Presidential Race. American Journal of Political Science 27:407–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weissberg, Robert. 1976. Public Opinion and Popular Government. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
Wise, David. 1973. The Politics of Lying. New York: Vintage.Google Scholar
Zaller, John. 1985. The Diffusion of Political Attitudes. Princeton University. Photocopy.Google Scholar