Export instability and its impact on economic growth of the Sudan
Date
1983
Authors
Hamid, Abdul Rahman
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Volume Title
Publisher
Canberra, ACT : The Australian National University
Abstract
This study investigates the likely impacts of export instability
on the economic growth of the Sudan. However, before considering that,
it was necessary to examine the factors which can lead to instability
and the theoretical arguments linking instability with growth.
Our analysis suggested that instability in Sudan, has been high by
international standards. In investigating the causes of this instability
the contribution of major commodities and countries to the overall
instability was calculated. Commodity concentration did not seem to
be an important cause, while geographic concentration showed a marginal
effect on instability.
The analysis also showed that most of the variability in export
earnings was attributable to quantity fluctuations which in turn was caused
by fluctuations in yield. On studying the impact of this export instability
on the internal economy, it was found that it had resulted in more than
proportional fluctuations in critical economic variables, within the
Sudan. There was evidence that this had adversely affected the rate of
growth of both investment and GDP.
To deal with this instability both national and international
policies are possible. At the national level fiscal devices such as
export taxes and counter cyclical expenditure policy seem to have
reasonable chances of reducing instability in Sudan. Internationally,
both bilateralism and foreign borrowing can achieve similar results.
However, it is emphasized that the costs and benefits of such policies
should be examined carefully before they are introduced.
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Type
Thesis (Masters sub-thesis)
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Access Statement
Open Access
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DOI
10.25911/5d6cfcb6a9a18