본 연구는 증가하는 승마 인구 수요를 예측하기 위하여 계량기법인 Holt모형, ARIMA모형, 단순회귀모형을 활용하고, 최적 모형을 선정하여 승마인구 모집단으로 설정하였다. 여기에 방문의사율, 실현율, 참여기간의 적용하여 보수적 예측과 낙관적 예측을 했고, 서비스가 개선될 경우의 수요도 예측하였다. 그 결과 결합기법을 적용한 보수적 수요는 약 8만명~11만명으로 낙관적 수요는 약 16만명~20만명으로 예측되었다. 그리고 서비스가 개선될 경우 보수적 수요는 약 10만명~12만명으로 낙관적 수요는 약 16만명~20만명으로 예측되었다.
따라서 승마인구는 계속적으로 증가하는 경향을 보이고 있고, 서비스가 개선될 경우에는 인구 수요는 더욱 증가하는 것으로 예상된다. 그러므로 산악 승마 수요확충을 위해서는 서비스 개선이 필요하고, 산악승마의 정확한공급을 위해서 본 연구의 계량적 자료는 기초자료가 될 것으로 기대된다.
This study utilized the quantitative model of Holt model, ARIMA model and simple regression model to predict the growing demand of horse riding population. And selected the best model to set a horse riding population. Applying the rate of visit intention, rate of actual visit behavior and participation was predicted the narrow and broad demand. If the demand of the service is improved also predicted. As a result the narrow demand forecast about 80~110 thousand people, broad demand forecast about 160~200 thousand people. And If the service is to improved the narrow demand about 100 ~ 120 thousand people, demand for broad about 160 ~ 200 thousand people have been predicted. Thus trail riders have been a trend to continuously increase, if the service is improved the demand of population is expected to increase. Therefore, it is necessary to improvement service of trail riding for increasing demand and the quantitative data of this study is expected to be the basis data for exact supply of trail riding.
This study utilized the quantitative model of Holt model, ARIMA model and simple regression model to predict the growing demand of horse riding population. And selected the best model to set a horse riding population. Applying the rate of visit intention, rate of actual visit behavior and participation was predicted the narrow and broad demand. If the demand of the service is improved also predicted. As a result the narrow demand forecast about 80~110 thousand people, broad demand forecast about 160~200 thousand people. And If the service is to improved the narrow demand about 100 ~ 120 thousand people, demand for broad about 160 ~ 200 thousand people have been predicted. Thus trail riders have been a trend to continuously increase, if the service is improved the demand of population is expected to increase. Therefore, it is necessary to improvement service of trail riding for increasing demand and the quantitative data of this study is expected to be the basis data for exact supply of trail riding.
