초록

This paper examines the cointegrating and causal relationships between insurance market development (IMD) and economic growth based on panel-data estimation techniques. It also investigates the dynamic interrelationships amongst a number of important macroeconomic variables on IMD-growth nexus. The sample consists of 26 countries observed over the period 1980-2013. We use six different indicators of IMD, covered under both insurance density and insurance penetration, to validate the robustness of our results. Our findings affirm a long-run equilibrium relationship between insurance market development, economic growth, and six other macroeconomic variables selected, namely broad money supply (relative to national income), real interest rates, inflation rates, urban population growth, youth dependency ratios, and government consumption expenditure (relative to national income). We use a panel vector auto-regression model to examine the nature of Granger causality among the variables. Most significantly, we find that IMD and some macroeconomic variables Granger-cause economic growth in the long run, irrespective of which measure of IMD we use.

키워드

Insurance Market Development, Economic Growth, Panel Data

참고문헌(92)open

  1. [학술지] Adams, M. / 2009 / Commercial Banking, Insurance and Economic Growth in Sweden between 1830 and 1938 / Accounting, Business and Financial History 19 (1) : 21 ~ 38

  2. [학술지] Alhassan, A.L. / 2014 / Insurance-growth Nexus in Ghana, An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Cointegration Approach / Review of Development Finance 4 (2) : 83 ~ 96

  3. [학술지] Allen, F. / 2001 / What do Financial Intermediaries Do? / Journal of Banking and Finance 25 (2) : 271 ~ 294

  4. [학술지] Andersson, L. A. / 2010 / Life Insurance and Income Growth, The Case of Sweden 1830-1950 / Scandinavian Economic History Review 58 (3) : 203 ~ 219

  5. [학술지] Ang, J. B. / 2008 / Survey of Recent Developments in the Literature of Finance and Growth / Journal of Economic Surveys 22 (3) : 536 ~ 576

  6. [학술지] Arellano, M. / 1991 / Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data, Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Fluctuations / Review of Economic Studies 58 (2) : 277 ~ 297

  7. [학술지] Arena, M. / 2008 / Does Insurance Market Activity Promote Economic Growth? A Cross-Country Study for Industrialized and Developing Countries / Journal of Risk and Insurance 75 (4) : 921 ~ 946

  8. [학술대회] Avram, K. / 2010 / Insurance and Economic Growth, A Cross Country Examination / Australian Centre for Financial Studies-Finsia Banking and Finance Conference

  9. [학술지] Azman-Saini, W. N. W. / 2011 / Finance and Growth, New Evidence on the Role of Insurance / South African Journal of Economics 79 (2) : 111 ~ 127

  10. [학술지] Barro, R. J. / 1991 / Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries / Quarterly Journal of Economics 106 (2) : 407 ~ 443

  11. [단행본] Barro, R. J. / 1995 / Economic Growth / McGraw Hill

  12. [학술지] Beck, T. / 2003 / Economic, Demographic, and Institutional Determinants of Life Insurance Consumption across Countries / The World Bank Economic Review 17 (1) : 51 ~ 88

  13. [학술지] Beenstock, M. / 1986 / The Determination of Life Premiums, An International Cross-Section Analysis 1970-1981 / Insurance, Mathematics and Economics 5 (1) : 616 ~ 634

  14. [학술지] Billio, M. / 2012 / Econometric Measures of Connectedness and Systemic Risk in the Finance and Insurance Sectors / Journal of Financial Economics 104 (3) : 535 ~ 559

  15. [보고서] Boon, T. K. / 2005 / Do Commercial Banks, Stock Market and Insurance Market Promote Economic Growth? An Analysis of the Singapore Economy

  16. [보고서] Catalan, M. / 2000 / Contractual Savings or Stock Market Development-which leads?

  17. [학술지] Chang, T. / 2014 / Does Insurance Activity Promote Economic Growth? Further Evidence based on Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Test / European Journal of Finance 20 (12) : 1187 ~ 1210

  18. [학술지] Chang, T. / 2013 / Does Globalization Affect the Insurance Markets? Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Test / Economic Modelling 33 (1) : 254 ~ 260

  19. [학술지] Chen, P. F. / 2012 / How Does the Development of Life Insurance Market Affect Economic Growth? Some International Evidence / Journal of International Development 24 (7) : 865 ~ 893

  20. [학술지] Chen, S. S. / 2013 / The Relationship Between Globalization and Insurance Activities, A Panel Data Analysis / Japan and the World Economy 28 (3) : 151 ~ 157

  21. [학술지] Ching, K. / 2010 / Causal Relation between Life Insurance Funds and Economic Growth, Evidence from Malaysia / ASEAN Economic Bulletin 27 (2) : 185 ~ 199

  22. [학술지] Choi, I. / 2001 / Unit Root Tests for Panel Data / Journal of International Money and Finance 20 (2) : 249 ~ 272

  23. [학술지] Curak, M. / 2009 / Insurance Sector Development and Economic Growth in Transition Countries / International Research Journal of Finance and Economics 34 (3) : 29 ~ 41

  24. [보고서] Das, U. S. / 2003 / Insurance and Issues in Financial Soundness

  25. [단행본] Enders, W. / 2004 / Applied Econometric Time Series / Wiley

  26. [학술지] Engle, R. F. / 1987 / Cointegration and Error Correction, Representation, Estimation and Testing / Econometrica 55 (2) : 251 ~ 276

  27. [학술지] Enz, R. / 2000 / The S-Curve Relation between Per-Capita Income and Insurance Penetration / Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, Issues and Practice 25 (3) : 396 ~ 406

  28. [보고서] Feyen, E. / 2011 / What Drives the Development of the Insurance Sector? An Empirical Analysis Based on a Panel of Developed and Developing Countries

  29. [보고서] Grant, E. / 2012 / The Social and Economic Value of Insurance

  30. [학술대회] Guochen, P. / 2012 / The Relationship between Insurance Development and Economic Growth, A Cross-region Study for China / China International Conference on Insurance and Risk Management

  31. [학술지] Haiss, P.R. / 2008 / The Relationship between Insurance and Economic Growth in Europe, A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis / Empirica 35 (4) : 405 ~ 431

  32. [학술지] Han, L. / 2010 / Insurance Development and Economic Growth / The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance 35 (2) : 183 ~ 199

  33. [단행본] Harris, R. / 2006 / Applied Econometric Time Series Modelling and Forecasting / Wiley

  34. [학술지] Hendry, D. F. / 1995 / On the Interactions of Unit Roots and Exogeneity / Econometric Reviews 14 (4) : 383 ~ 419

  35. [학술지] Holtz-Eakin, D. / 1988 / Estimating Vector Auto Regressions with Panel Data / Econometrica 56 (6) : 1371 ~ 1395

  36. [학술지] Horng, M. S. / 2012 / Does Insurance Demand or Financial Development Promote Economic Growth? Evidence from Taiwan / Applied Economics Letters 19 (2) : 105 ~ 111

  37. [학술지] Hussels, S. / 2005 / Stimulating the Demand for Insurance / Risk Management and Insurance Review 8 (2) : 257 ~ 278

  38. [학술지] Hwang, T. / 2003 / The Determinants of the Demand for Life Insurance in an Emerging Economy- The Case of China / Managerial Finance 29 (5-6) : 82 ~ 96

  39. [학술지] Jung, W. S. / 1986 / Financial Development and Economic Growth, International Evidence / Economic Development and Cultural Change 34 (2) : 336 ~ 346

  40. [학술지] Kao, C. / 2000 / On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data / Advances in Econometrics, Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration and Dynamic Panels 15 (1) : 179 ~ 222

  41. [단행본] Kao, C. / 2001 / Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration, and Dynamic Panels (Advances in Econometrics), 15 / Emerald Group Publishing Limited : 179 ~ 222

  42. [학술지] King, R. / 1993 / Finance and Growth, Schumpeter Might Be Right / Quarterly Journal of Economics 108 (3) : 717 ~ 737

  43. [학술지] Koop, G. / 1996 / Impulse Response Analysis in Non-linear Multivariate Models / Journal of Econometrics 74 (1) : 119 ~ 147

  44. [학술지] Kreinin, M. E. / 1957 / Analysis of Life Insurance Premiums / Review of Economics and Statistics 39 (1) : 46 ~ 54

  45. [학술대회] Kugler, M. / 2005 / Does Insurance Promote Economic Growth? Evidence from the UK / Paper presented at the Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference

  46. [학술지] Law, S. H. / 2014 / Does Too Much Finance Harm Economic Growth? / Journal of Banking and Finance 41 : 36 ~ 44

  47. [학술지] Lee, C. C. / 2011 / Does Insurance Matter for Growth, Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries / Journal of Macroeconomics 11 (1) : 1 ~ 26

  48. [학술지] Lee, C. C. / 2013 / Insurance and Real Output, The Key Role of Banking Activities / Macroeconomics Dynamics 17 (2) : 235 ~ 260

  49. [학술지] Lee, C. C. / 2012 / The Impact of Real Income on Insurance Penetration, Evidence from Panel Data / International Review of Economics and Finance 21 (1) : 246 ~ 260

  50. [학술지] Lee, C. C. / 2013 / Investigating the Stationarity of Insurance Premiums, International Evidence / The European Journal of Finance 19 (4) : 276 ~ 297

  51. [학술지] Lee, C. C. / 2012 / Further Evidence on Property-Casualty Insurance Premiums, Do Multiple Breaks and Country Characteristics Matter? / Japan and the World Economy 24 (3) : 215 ~ 226

  52. [학술지] Lee, C. C. / 2013 / The Link Between Life Insurance Activities and Economic Growth, Some New Evidence / Journal of International Money and Finance 32 (3) : 405 ~ 427

  53. [학술지] Lee, C. C. / 2013 / The Dynamic Interactions among the Stock, Bond and Insurance Markets / North American Journal of Economics and Finance 26 (3) : 28 ~ 52

  54. [학술지] Lee, S. J. / 2010 / Determinants of Household Demand for Insurance, The Case of Korea / Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, Issues and Practice 35 (1) : 82 ~ 91

  55. [학술지] Levin, A. / 2002 / Unit Root Tests in Panel Data, Asymptotic and Finite-sample Properties / Journal of Econometrics 108 (1) : 1 ~ 24

  56. [학술지] Levine, R. / 2000 / Financial Intermediation and Growth, Causality Analysis and Causes / Journal of Monetary Economics 46 (1) : 31 ~ 77

  57. [학술지] Liedtke, P. M. / 2007 / What’s Insurance to a Modern Economy? / Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance 32 (2) : 211 ~ 221

  58. [학술지] Liu, G.C. / 2014 / Insurance Activities and Banking Credit Causal Nexus, Evidence from China / Applied Economics Letters 21 (9) : 626 ~ 630

  59. [학술지] Liu, G. / 2014 / The Linkage between Insurance Activity and Banking Credit, Some Evidence from Dynamic Analysis / North American Journal of Economics and Finance 29 (3) : 239 ~ 265

  60. [학술지] Maddala, G. S. / 1999 / A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and New Sample Test / Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 61 : 631 ~ 652

  61. [학술지] Maeso-Fernandez, F. / 2006 / Towards the Estimation of Equilibrium Exchange Rates for CEE Acceding Countries, Methodological Issues and a panel Cointegration Perspective / Journal of Computational Economics 34 (3) : 499 ~ 517

  62. [학술지] Mark, C.N. / 2003 / Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long-run Money Demand / Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 65 (5) : 655 ~ 680

  63. [학술지] Nejad, H.R. / 2012 / The Relationship between Insurance Development and Economic Growth in Iran / Finance Management 47 (1) : 9079 ~ 9087

  64. [학술지] Nektarios, M. / 2010 / A Growth Theory for the Insurance Industry / Risk Management and Insurance Review 13 (1) : 45 ~ 60

  65. [학술지] Njegomir, V. / 2010 / Does Insurance Promote Economic Growth, The Evidence from Ex-Yugoslavia Region / Ekonomska misao i praksa, časopis Sveučilišta u Dubrovniku 19 (1) : 31 ~ 48

  66. [학술지] Outreville, F. J. / 1990 / The Economic Significance of Insurance Markets in Developing Countries / The Journal of Risk and Insurance 57 (3) : 487 ~ 498

  67. [학술지] Outreville, F. J. / 1996 / Life Insurance Markets in Developing Countries / The Journal of Risk and Insurance 63 (2) : 263 ~ 278

  68. [학술지] Outreville, F. J. / 2013 / The Relationship between Insurance and Economic Development, 85 Empirical Papers for a Review of the Literature / Risk Management and Insurance Review 16 (1) : 71 ~ 122

  69. [학술지] Pagano, M. / 1993 / Financial Markets and Growth, An Overview / European Economic Review 37 (2-3) : 613 ~ 622

  70. [학술지] Park, H. / 2002 / Determinants of Insurance Pervasiveness, A Cross-National Analysis / International Business Review 11 (1) : 79 ~ 96

  71. [학술지] Patrick, H. / 1966 / Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped Countries / Economic Development and Cultural Change 15 (3) : 174 ~ 189

  72. [학술지] Pedroni, P. / 2000 / Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels / Advances in Econometrics 15 (1) : 93 ~ 130

  73. [학술지] Pedroni, P. / 2001 / Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointegrated Panels / Review of Economics and Statistics 83 (4) : 727 ~ 731

  74. [학술지] Petkovski, M. / 2014 / An Analysis of Non-Life Insurance Determinants for Selected Countries in Central and South Eastern Europe, A Co-Integration Approach / Romanian Journal of Forecasting 17 (3) : 160 ~ 178

  75. [학술지] Pradhan, R. P. / 2015 / Insurance Development and the Finance-Growth Nexus, Evidence from 34 OECD Countries / Journal of Multinational Financial Management 31 (1) : 1 ~ 22

  76. [학술지] Pradhan, R. P. / 2017 / Insurance Market Density and Economic Growth in Eurozone Countries, The Granger Causality Approach / Financial Innovation

  77. [학술지] Pradhan, R. P. / 2014 / Does Banking Sector Development Affect Economic Growth and Inflation? A Panel Cointegration and Causality Approach / Applied Financial Economics 24 (7) : 465 ~ 480

  78. [학술지] Richterkova, Z. / 2013 / Impact of Insurance Sector on Economic Growth-A Meta-analysis / Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 61 (7) : 2677 ~ 2683

  79. [보고서] / Sigma Economic Research and Consulting (various years)

  80. [보고서] Skipper, H. D. / 1997 / Foreign Insurers in Emerging Markets, Issues and Concerns

  81. [학위논문] Soo, H. H. / 1996 / Life Insurance and Economic Growth, Theoretical and Empirical Investigation

  82. [학술지] Sümegi, K. / 2008 / The Relationship between Insurance and Economic Growth, Review and Agenda / The ICFAI Journal of Risk and Insurance 5 (2) : 32 ~ 56

  83. [보고서] United Nations Conference on Trade and Development / 1988 / The Report on Services in the World Economy

  84. [학술지] Vadlamannati, K. C. / 2008 / Do Insurance Sector Growth and Reforms Affect Economic Development? Empirical Evidence from India / Journal of Applied Economic Research 2 (1) : 43 ~ 86

  85. [학술지] Valickova, P. / 2015 / Financial Development and Economic Growth, A Meta-analysis / Journal of Economic Surveys 29 (3) : 506 ~ 526

  86. [학술지] Ward, D. / 2000 / Does Insurance Promote Economic Growth? Evidence from OECD Countries / Journal of Risk and Insurance 67 (4) : 489 ~ 506

  87. [단행본] Wasow, B. / 1986 / Insurance Industry in Economic Development / New York University Press : 160 ~ 176

  88. [학술지] Webb, I. P. / 2005 / The Effect of Banking and Insurance on the Growth of Capital and Output / SBS Revista De Termas Financieros 2 (2) : 1 ~ 32

  89. [학술지] Wolde-Rufael, Y. / 2009 / Re-examining the Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus in Kenya / Economic Modelling 26 (6) : 1140 ~ 1146

  90. [학술지] Zeits, E. N. / 2003 / An Examination of the Demand for Life Insurance / Risk Management and Insurance Review 6 (2) : 159 ~ 191

  91. [학술지] Zheng, W. / 2009 / A Comparative Study of International Insurance Markets / Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance 34 (1) : 85 ~ 99

  92. [단행본] Zweifel, P. / 2012 / Insurance Economics / Springer