Future changes in southcentral U.S. wildfire probability due to climate change-Data
Dates
Publication Date
2018
Start Date
1900-01-01
End Date
2099
Citation
Stambaugh, M.C., 2018, Future changes in southcentral U.S. wildfire probability due to climate change-Data: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/F7PK0F4V.
Summary
Globally, changing fire regimes due to climate is one of the greatest threats to ecosystems and society. This dataset presents projections of historic and future fire probability for the southcentral U.S. using downscaled climate projections and the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM, Guyette et al., 2012). Climate data from 1900-1929 and projected climate data for 2040-2069 and 2070-2099 were used as model inputs to the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (Guyette et al. 2012) to estimate fire probability. Baseline and future time period data are from three global climate models (GCMs): CGCM, GFDL, and HadCM3. The nine associated data sets (tiffs) represent estimated change in mean fire probability (CFP) clipped to [...]
Summary
Globally, changing fire regimes due to climate is one of the greatest threats to ecosystems and society. This dataset presents projections of historic and future fire probability for the southcentral U.S. using downscaled climate projections and the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM, Guyette et al., 2012). Climate data from 1900-1929 and projected climate data for 2040-2069 and 2070-2099 were used as model inputs to the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (Guyette et al. 2012) to estimate fire probability. Baseline and future time period data are from three global climate models (GCMs): CGCM, GFDL, and HadCM3. The nine associated data sets (tiffs) represent estimated change in mean fire probability (CFP) clipped to the extent of ecological sections containing Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico (Bailey 1995). We present CFPs as a percentage change from baseline conditions because some locations initially have inherently low or high fire probabilities and absolute changes in fire probability are less meaningful for comparisons. Citations: Bailey, R.G. 1995. Description of the ecoregions of the United States (2nd ed.). Misc. Pub. No. 1391, USDA Forest Service, Washington DC Guyette, R.P., Stambaugh, M.C., Dey, D.C., and Muzika, R.M. 2012. Predicting fire frequency with chemistry and climate. Ecosystems 15(2): 322-335.
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Purpose
Data were collected to model potential changes in wildfire probability for Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. Identification and description of these conditions may help anticipate fire regimes changes that will affect human health, agriculture, species conservation, and nutrient and water cycling.
